probabilities

do you take into account the probability of your set coming i mean like its been 12 times since you hit a set so you become more willing to set mine same thing with srt8s and flushes just wondering if anyone keeps track and bets more aggresively when it seems to be due?

No, and IMO you should never do that. You could set mine 100 times in a row and miss them all. 100 times is still a really small sample, I don't think Ive gone 100x w/o hitting a set but still past results have NOTHING to do with future expectations, the probability of hitting the set/straight/flush is still the same.

The hands have no memory of the past, and are independent properites.

Probability Theory and Statistics:

Missing a set 100 times in a row.
Missing that Flush Draw 100 times in a row.
The Straight draw missing 100 times.
Coin landing on heads 100 times in a row.

Accumulative or Independent (resetting the odds each time).

You decide.


Do what works for you.

I only play every 12th pocket pair so I don't waste money on sets that aren't coming.

lol billy, but OP your odds are the same every singletime as said. All you should be thinking about is if you have the stack and odds to setmine.

The coinflip idea explains it pretty well. If someone were to bet you that a coin landed on heads 100x in a row youd put as much $$ on it as they would allow, since the odds are 1/2^100 that no tails turned up. But, that refers to the whole set of the 100 flips. The first 50 flips could be all heads and the next 50 flips all tails. Probability theory really just states that over a significant amount of flips 100s of thousands or millions the overall average of the flips will be very very close to 50% of each in the long run. Each flip is completely random and unchanged by other flips. In regards to sets, I think you hit one like 11%ish or something close to that so you could go a significant amount of time without flopping a set. Also, in saying that, you could flop a set 2,3, or even 4 times in a row. Probability is jsut telling you if you play millions of poker hands you will flop a set around 11% of the time.

Side note: This idea strongly ties into bankroll management imo. I dont think people get the idea of how bad you can run for a drastic period of time. Getting it in in an allin spot where you have 60% equity is huge in poker, but you can have a dry spell where you lose several situations where your a 3:2 or 4:1 favorite in arow. Which shows pretty much why multitabling is important if you can do it successfully because over the larger portion of hands you will run closer to your probabilistic all in EV whereas in the shortterm you can run way under or way over depending on your luck.

WVHillbilly said:

I only play every 12th pocket pair so I don't waste money on sets that aren't coming.

Click to expand...

lol do u keep a tally chart on notepad?

In ring games: I'll play any PP any pos if it's cheap enough. If u know a tight dude is raising in EP 5xBB and u look down at 22, it's worth a call to crack his AA/KK or his TPTK on flop when u hit a set. The return is well worth it.
Get in cheap, get out when u miss. Simples!

The ideea is to get maximum from every hand u win. If u have to pay 3-5 bets to win 20-25 bets ... i say u can call from time to time on the turn if u have enough outs . Problem is ... experience. I have the problem judging the pot odds quikly enough in the turbo games. Even if u know he has a pair , if the pot odds tell u that u have over 40% chances to win the hand with a flash or streight or a highest pair u should go for it if the payement is good and u only need to pay some bets to see the next card. The only advice is never commit yourself to the pot with a draw or if u are not sure if u have the best hand. If u are in a draw .. and another player raise the pot after the flop or after the turn, the best thing is to fold.Save your chips for another hand.

IMO probability is really doing very important role in most of gambling game...
that is what excites me. hehehe

when I play tourney I dump plenty of pairs
cash is a different story I want to play them all but thats too much

WVHillbilly said:

I only play every 12th pocket pair so I don't waste money on sets that aren't coming.

Click to expand...

Exactly

I prefer every 13th just to go against the luck factor.



Thought provoking isn't it.

:adore: :adore: :adore: To the Gods of Statistics and Probabilities.

Works also .......

matt20 said:

The coinflip idea explains it pretty well. If someone were to bet you that a coin landed on heads 100x in a row youd put as much $$ on it as they would allow, since the odds are 1/2^100 that no tails turned up. But, that refers to the whole set of the 100 flips. The first 50 flips could be all heads and the next 50 flips all tails. Probability theory really just states that over a significant amount of flips 100s of thousands or millions the overall average of the flips will be very very close to 50% of each in the long run. Each flip is completely random and unchanged by other flips. In regards to sets, I think you hit one like 11%ish or something close to that so you could go a significant amount of time without flopping a set. Also, in saying that, you could flop a set 2,3, or even 4 times in a row. Probability is jsut telling you if you play millions of poker hands you will flop a set around 11% of the time.

Side note: This idea strongly ties into bankroll management imo. I dont think people get the idea of how bad you can run for a drastic period of time. Getting it in in an allin spot where you have 60% equity is huge in poker, but you can have a dry spell where you lose several situations where your a 3:2 or 4:1 favorite in arow. Which shows pretty much why multitabling is important if you can do it successfully because over the larger portion of hands you will run closer to your probabilistic all in EV whereas in the shortterm you can run way under or way over depending on your luck.

Click to expand...

I agree completely.


Ok it's just plain fun to twist thoughts and rethink known theories.

For the sake of discussion.
The you is what may be questionable in my mind.
Are the odds tied to anything?
A person, a specific sample size, time frame.

Then isn't it possible that:
Person 1 hits tails 99 times.
Person 2 Hits tails 25 times.
Person 3 Hits tails 76 times.
Person 4 Hits tails 0 times.

Sample size 400
Total Tails 50%
Total Heads 50%

Is this the unknown, where Luck overrides the Statistical Gods.
Person 1 wins the tournament.
Sucks to be person 3.

Can things run in streaks >>> (Sure why not).
Do you run really good at times >>> (Should you be taking more chances when your running good).
Do you run bad at times >>> Should you be taking less chances at these times).


Luck
Isn't Luck Anti Statistical?

Just questions and thoughts.
Makes you think doesn't it.

Makes you think doesn't it.



no

dan said:

do you take into account the probability of your set coming i mean like its been 12 times since you hit a set so you become more willing to set mine same thing with srt8s and flushes just wondering if anyone keeps track and bets more aggresively when it seems to be due?

Click to expand...

I think there is around a 100% probability that this technique won`t work over a large sample, though it may do so in the short term.

I havent bet anything on horses for a while. Maybe, following dans tactics I should. I mean I have to win.

oh no a horse could never win

dan said:

oh no a horse could never win

Click to expand...

if i bet on it

It depends.








Damn surprised I'm the first with the correct answer.......

haha dj11.

If you can get to the flop cheaply with a low pp, then do it. If my table isn't likely to 3-bet, then raise if you want to - sucks flopping a set at a casino and there's a whole $4 out there on a rainbow rag flop.

A lot.