ok I think people need to understand my mind set and my actual situation because a few things are been assumed about me which are not true.
1. I am not a losing player, as has been suggested here, I am actually a winning player the thing is my winning rate is basically low enough that id probably make more working at McDonalds in Honderous. not sure if that country is spelt right and that may be a slight exaggeration but it sums up my frustrations.
As people may or may not know I am aspergus (high functioning autism) I don't get on with people I never have. ive always been the out cast. one thing I have never liked in life is uncertainty hence poker seems a bad idea. I did a degree in accounting and finance from a good university and got a 2,1 I cant get work though. did you know what the actual employment rate for people with autism is? 15% that means 85% of us are out of work and most of the 15% that are in work are either temporary from job to job or special jobs specifically created for retards that are basically charity.
now I am well aware that I am no phil ivey or Tom Dwan, and im not going to do a Phil Helmuth and say I am the best in the world its just bad luck blah blah.
and ive always realised one thing ive had is a high mathematical IQ. ive recently been working on a spreadsheet that is supposed to cover perfect ranges and plays for every street as to be near exploitless. is this the right way to go? for low stakes sit and goes where you don't always meet the same opponents probably. but for higher stakes where you meet the same regulars again obviously you need to realise how to exploit how they adapt and how to change or be unpredictable enough to not be exploited etc and exploit. obviously the more I know about ranges the easier this will be. ive been in contact with some individuals who tried to give me a few pointers and it definitely makes sense, but I already decided there and then that 3 bet and 4 bet range merging for low stakes sit and goes probably isn't a sensible idea and I have not implemented that. it was easier before when the americans played and the dons were available and it cost 4% rake and theyd do retarded things like playing 89 and then getting all in on an ak8 flop.
id easily make $30 an hour without much effort. I am aware the standard has increased and its not that easy anymore, but theres still fish and plenty of them, and I still understand what I am doing in dons. so I deposited $60 on a site got it up to 130 went on a down swing to 60 got it back up to $163.
see when I hit 60 I took some time out and really thought it through ok what can I do to change this I tightened my range to what I call the 66% range which basically works simply by working out the different number of hand permutations pre flop and adapting a range which means entering from any position there is a 66% chance that no one behind me has a hand that beats the bottom of my range. why 66%?
because if you raise to 3bb and everyone folds when you have them beat but only calls when they have you beat assuming u check fold every flop (which for obvious reasons I don't do) then 66% of the time you win 1 and a half bb. 33% of the time you lose 3 bb. 3 times 0.33=0.99. 1.5* 0.66 = 0.99.
so if I was playing oppenents that could only make pre flop decisions to be ahead of me perfectly only entering when they are, id break even plus lucky flops id be plus ev.
now I know post flop plays a part to and often what I get called by is actually behind my range most of the time but ok they have position usually though at my stakes people arnt exploiting because if they were theyd of figured out my range and come over the top on boards that wernt likely to be good for me. 876 etc but vast majorty of the time c bet takes it clearly no adaptation.
I am also aware of range merging and etc and would look at combining suited connectors for more astute opposition. however when I am been called by j10 in a don clearly my opposition is not at the level where these kind of things are necessary.
I know someone winging about how they are doing in $1.50 or $5 sit and goes may seem like a joke, I still apply for jobs regulary and get the occasional shifts about two-three times a week working min wage in bar work etc where people say im weird and to go away.
so I made the decision I can blame the site for been rigged or I can look for any gaps in my game any flaws. one thing was when I had the drop I looked for reasons I had got a new laptop and now wasn't relying on browser through a mac but was using the actual game software with tiling this allowed me to move from playing 5-6 tables at a time to 12. the down swing had happened almost the same time so I cut back the tables to 8 at a time.
I applied the 66% range to avoid been to loose varying according to chip stack sizes, eg when short u have to shove a lot lighter and when deep it makes sense to avoid pots full stop hence probably drop to a range of playing 4% of hands. talking about oince more then doubled up etc.
the results spoke for themselves I went up from $60 to 163 I then woke up to find something weird a notice about a promotion I had not heard of and money been credited to my account. a $35 credit I was now at $198 this made me happy and feel a real sense of optimism.
then today I played and won 3 of 8 great typical just had nasty luck. then it happened 1 of 8 kk v 107 suited aa lost to qj that hit quads he saw a guy raise called saw me shove and saw him call and then decided to call a two way all in with qj and hit quads. if I have to explain why calling a two way all in when all three players have gained a 3rd of there stack already, meaning all healthy and etc with qj suited is a bad play then clearly there is no point in discussing poker ever with you unless you claim to know something weird about the site programming and can show a shark scope with a positive roi. I then lost ak suited vkq suited aq called by k9. k9 shove to bb from sb called by a5 which lost. btw k9 does fit into the 66% range when sb v bb but I can shove lighter there anyway because icm says they should callme tighter. but even without that k9 isn't a mistake shove.
why am I going into all this detail because my point is I can predict it in advance whenever I run real hot I suddenly hit the wall with abd beat after bad beat and etc. and it seems im always slighty plus roi but real border line and seem to only reaslly be going up from bonuses and promotions etc. anyway long story I am now down to $150 and to say that I am incandescent and teeming with rage through the orifices may be a slight understatement. well ive calmed down now and was writing this earler and decided it best to go out for a walk and to get some air.
ok so im down $43 as I said I take it seriously. and its not the amount its the proportion of my current bank roll. and obviously and losing 22% of it winds me up. and yes I know this doesn't meet strict bank roll management in theory I should have 40 buyins for any sit and go but dons are sposed to be more stable, and if I go to play $1 again im going to end up punching myself in the face when I lose $7 and I think really I should be losing at least $20 for a face punch.
ok I am joking with that comment but just venting.
I looked up the shark scope of some regulars I have been seeing they are making + or minus 1% before rake back or promotions etc. yeah im aware that 10% reg fee for a don is awful im just saying id expect a higher win rate. and it gets very suspicious that I seem to hit this unlucky wall whenever it finally going well. I know ive still got work to do and am working on my game all the time, I was inspired to take poker more seriously after seeing an article about a robot, but that's another story.
I still have my suspicions that the sites are manipulating the software to keep the fish in the game longer they care about rake not my profit.
that been said casinos
cant manipulate the cards to pro long rake I am making money even if it is less then min wage im gonna save it up and eventually play life in the meantime regardless of the riggedness of sites or noit im makin g money even if it is pennies and that's savings that can give me a roll long term for life play. I plan to train my mind and perfect my game in the mean time I think its time I start learning about the more advanced things of poker tracker to fine tune my game and learn more stuff I don't know how to do this so if someone is willing to give me advice that would be appreciated still think the sites messed up.