Fear of being outdrawn...

I play super tight poker. Some of my poker buddies say to tight....but my bankroll is bigger then their's and I have a higher win %. I'm a firm believer in the phrase "every fold is a win". Lately I have been going through a patch of sick beats. Everytime this happens I find myself wanting to fold made hands when I get raised by somebody drawing. Online this happens often, players raise flush draws, open ended str draws....and just about every other possible drawing scenario possible. Would you ever fold a made hand (with the odds on your side) for fear of being outdrawn? Something more comfortable may, and probably will, come along later. Doesn't it make sense to wait?

If you are afraid of the draw, then you should quit now. You fold against the math you are just selling your profits short. You have to keep telling yourself for every one time they make that draw I win two times. You are micro managing your game. Think long term: days, weeks, months to see if things are profitable. Don't think is he sucking out on me this time.

it depends on the situation, in a cash game yes i would call if the odds are on my side, but in a touney i might fold becuase im happy with my chips at that point in the tounrey and wouldnt want to risk it

I pay all my bills with poker dude so quitting aint happening. What I'm asking is this....doesn't the math also say that something easier and safer will come along? If I'm committed of course I call, no questions asked. This is mostly an online trend too, but it is real and a serious threat to a win. You flop a set, or maybe just top pair with a great kicker, and 2 hearts on the board and some jack ass goes all in. You know what he's doing....for a fact, but you're not committed. 4 to 1 odds in your favor but risk of everything if you lose. This happens ebough in 1 sngo sometimes where the 2 times it holds aren't enough for the one it doesn't. Every fold is a win....keep playing.

I would call. Luck, in the long run, evens itself out. So if you have a 4 to 1 percentage to win, in the long run, you will average 4 wins to that one loss in that situation. Basically, you will be out-drawn once in a while, but most of the time you will win. Just hope that the beat is when you're not all in .

I can see what you mean though. Sometimes I've played against people who you feel are so lucky, it doesn't matter what they have, they will out draw you on the river and the turn.

In a cash game you raise raise raise....let him draw.

In a tourney you have to analyze your situation. Some cases may be good to fold but the majority of the time you need to call here too.

I don't believe in luck...at all.

JimboJim said:

In a cash game you raise raise raise....let him draw.

In a tourney you have to analyze your situation. Some cases may be good to fold but the majority of the time you need to call here too.

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I completely agree with a cash game. This is tourney strategy, I didn't mention that I guess.

mrrigel said:

I completely agree with a cash game. This is tourney strategy, I didn't mention that I guess.

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What you need to do is post some specific hands. The experts in the Hand Analysis forum will review it. Taking risks is the key to winning tourneys but you have to be sure that it's not an unnecessary risk. I'll fold to a raise if I have a healthy chipstack and there is a chance that I myself may be drawing dead.

You gotta look at each individual situation seperatly and make a decision then.

A couple quick thoughts:

1) When you have good hands, you need to get your chips in the pot. While your wins won't always be based on just your cards, if you're folding when you have a good chance to win, you're just making winning a tournament that much harder.

2) If you start playing really timid against a table of people who are paying attention, expect to start seeing bigger bets becoming more common and fewer calls when you're trying to extract chips from your opponents. If this is part of your long-term strategy (ie setting up later slow-play and bluffs) then that's fine, but if you can't 'switch gears' then you might find yourself folding with the best hand far too often

3) The bad beats may not be coming as often as you think. It's easy to remember when you get rivered and knocked out of a tournament, but you don't always count the number of times that your set or top pair hold up during the tournanment, so there is often some selective memory about luck. Unless you believe that someone (the dealer, the poker room, the gods of fortune, karma, the random number generator) is out to get you, you are probably winning a reasonable number of times.

All in all, if you can't let a few lucky draws make you change your betting habits. If you prefer to play tight, then play tight, but if you have a probably winning hand, then (depending on some other factors) you probably need to bet.

mrrigel said:

Would you ever fold a made hand (with the odds on your side) for fear of being outdrawn?

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mrrigel said:

I pay all my bills with poker dude

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Does... not... compute....

Ok...You know who spoke on this in FT chat before and I got the idea from. Allen Cunningham. Does that compute

Maybe I'm not being clear. Why risk getting put out of a tournament when you know there is a risk of this happenning, when you can fold have a 100% chance of playing another hand. That's all.

Allen Cunningham is my fav pro for the very reason that he is a folding machine. He can fold any hand, any time...because he wants to play another. There is logic here.

That is true, however, if you play too tight, when you do come out of your shell, no one will play. There needs to be some game in your table image. I do it by seeing a lot of flops and folding a lot. It gives the illusion I am more game than I really am. As the blinds rise, we all tend to loosen up a bit anyway. But early, especially after my tight opening has hit a pot, and I am comfortable with my stack, I'll see lots of pots and fold em, just to look gamy. Hopefully no one will notice that smells gamy.

Old poker saying, you got to give action to get action.

If you have adopted the poker phrase "every fold is a win" then you are playing the wrong game my friend, paying your bills or not. Wouldn't mind taking your bill $ with the image you just presented to all of us at the tournament tables, but good luck.

ok guys

The amateur poker player might not pick up on it, but if you run into a fairly decent player who pays attention he may pick up on such tightness and expose it badly.

you know what they say about players who hide their sharkscope stats.........don't ya wolf?

hide sharkscope stats? I'm not an SNG player buddy... strictly cash game so why would I care about some SNG stats?

I'm talking about ONE hand in a tourney....Yes I play tight, I finish in 30% of mtt tourneys because of this. To each his own, if I lay down a winner, good for him...but i still play.

you just said in your first sentence you play super tight poker... you didn't say i play super tight for one hand so I'm a little confused?

mrrigel said:

Maybe I'm not being clear. Why risk getting put out of a tournament when you know there is a risk of this happenning, when you can fold have a 100% chance of playing another hand. That's all.

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I understand that you need to pick and chose when you want to make that power move but what you are saying is to general. I have layed down good hands because I did not think it was the right time to make a move so I know what you are saying. You only know you have a hand locked up so few times you cannot wait for them in a tournament setting wit hever increasing blinds. In tournaments you have to push smaller advantages than you do in a cash game.

You really need to give us some concrete hands to go along with your thinking. I can fold AA preflop to a reraise becuase 20% of the time he can suck out on me. Fold I get to keep playing.

You folding to a known drawing hand is still selling your profits short long term. You still stick around and keep playing but without as many chips. You can still finish in the money but instead of 2nd you may have taken 1st. Next time you finish on the bubble instead of sneaking into that first money spot. This may happen only 2 or 3 times a month but in time it will add up. You may make 1k a month but could be making 1.1k or 1.2k a month.

One hand is in reference to laying down a hand where you know you're ahead, if somebody raise you allin. 2 hearts on the board and you know that they bet the flush draw. The topic of the entire thread....laying down a hand for fear of being outdraw.

This happens online all the time. More often then not, players will go all in on a flush draw, or open ended str draw. When I clearly see this is what they are doing, and I'm ok with my stack....even if i flopped a good hand, why not fold and wait. Thank you Titans, you worded it better then I could.