devisam
Enthusiast
Silver Level
I read this example and want to see your opinion on mathematic poker been true or not :
First of all you should estimate that probability that your opponent is bluffing and holds a worse hand than you. Lets say that:
Our opponent is a little tricky and bluffs 1 time for every 3 times he has the best hand on the river.
This means that there is a 1 in 4 chance that we will have a better hand than our opponent.
Therefore there is 3 in 4 chance that we do not have the best hand.
So for every 3 times we lose, 1 time we will win (3-to-1).
Thus if we call and have the best hand we will win $14 once, but if we call and have the worst hand we will lose $4 three times. As a result if we called every time, we would lose $12 (3 x $4) and win $14 after 4 hands. This means that we would be making a net profit of $2 if we called on the river every time, therefore we should make the call.
The above paragraph probably didn't make a lot of sense the first time you read it, but trust us; it isn't as hard as we made it sound. A simpler way to interpret what we just said is that you should have better odds of winning than the pot is giving you. In the above example we had to call $4 to win a $14 pot, which is $3.5-to-$1. Our odds of winning are 3-to-1, which means we have better odds of winning than the odds in the pot.
Our opponent is a little tricky and bluffs 1 time for every 3 times he has the best hand on the river.
This means that there is a 1 in 4 chance that we will have a better hand than our opponent.
Therefore there is 3 in 4 chance that we do not have the best hand.
So for every 3 times we lose, 1 time we will win (3-to-1).
Thus if we call and have the best hand we will win $14 once, but if we call and have the worst hand we will lose $4 three times. As a result if we called every time, we would lose $12 (3 x $4) and win $14 after 4 hands. This means that we would be making a net profit of $2 if we called on the river every time, therefore we should make the call.
The above paragraph probably didn't make a lot of sense the first time you read it, but trust us; it isn't as hard as we made it sound. A simpler way to interpret what we just said is that you should have better odds of winning than the pot is giving you. In the above example we had to call $4 to win a $14 pot, which is $3.5-to-$1. Our odds of winning are 3-to-1, which means we have better odds of winning than the odds in the pot.