Example of using mathematics in poker!!!

[devisam]

I read this example and want to see your opinion on mathematic poker been true or not :​

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First of all you should estimate that probability that your opponent is bluffing and holds a worse hand than you. Lets say that:


Our opponent is a little tricky and bluffs 1 time for every 3 times he has the best hand on the river.
This means that there is a 1 in 4 chance that we will have a better hand than our opponent.
Therefore there is 3 in 4 chance that we do not have the best hand.
So for every 3 times we lose, 1 time we will win (3-to-1).


Thus if we call and have the best hand we will win $14 once, but if we call and have the worst hand we will lose $4 three times. As a result if we called every time, we would lose $12 (3 x $4) and win $14 after 4 hands. This means that we would be making a net profit of $2 if we called on the river every time, therefore we should make the call.


The above paragraph probably didn't make a lot of sense the first time you read it, but trust us; it isn't as hard as we made it sound. A simpler way to interpret what we just said is that you should have better odds of winning than the pot is giving you. In the above example we had to call $4 to win a $14 pot, which is $3.5-to-$1. Our odds of winning are 3-to-1, which means we have better odds of winning than the odds in the pot.​

 

[RocwX]

This example only makes sense if you have a bluff catcher and the other player only bets the river with a monster or with a complete bluff, which isn't always the case.

I prefer to use odds while playing the flop and the turn to understand if I should call a bet to go after my outs and in that case I'm pretty confident that I'm behind and can only win the hand if I catch it.

For example, if you need one card to have a flush and you're pretty confident that the other player has a high pair, but not the flush draw, you're going after 9 outs. You have roughly 35% of chance of getting the flush on the turn or on the river. If you're willing to see both cards, you can take 1.9-to-1 odds and if it does hit, you're pretty much sure you have the best hand. If it doesn't hit it's an easy chek/fold on the river.

 

[Mikeisanace777]

Forget the math

From my experience it's good to let your opponent bluff you. Your pair might be good as you stated and in the end +2 net profit but after a while he will stop bluffing this isn't a good thing. Assume you let him bluff you a lot as in 3-4 times you call once and lose,but later on you call or re raise to his trips 10's when he finally wasn't really bluffing and you show him queens full to trip 10's on 10-Q-4-10-9. You make a little more than 2 bucks now you make $900..

 

[Nitrozsz]

HM2, it is mathematic...

 

[firstcrack]

A little off topic, but on the subject of probability in general, I remember what piqued my interest as an adolescent was when our math teacher used a commentator during a basketball game as an example of how a lot of folks don't really take the time to accuratley interpret games of chance. Here was the scenario: a basketball player is at the free-throw line and has a free-throw make percentage of 75%. The player misses a free-throw and the commentator remarks that this is not typical. Wrong. If you assume two free-throws each try, and you can be expected to make 3 out of ever 4, then you should expect to miss one free throw every other time at the free-throw line. Said another way, you should only expect to make both free-throws 50% of the time. So, the remark about being A-typical by the commentator is a bit of a reveal--i.e., demonstrates his lack of understanding of what the odds are telling us.