How much should I bet to deny my opponent the odds to call?

Let's imagine a two-handed game. The flop comes [as][7d][Jd]. I have [ac][kh] - TPTK, and it's my turn to act. The pot is currently $100 (for simplicity sake). How much, relative to the pot size, should I bet to deny my opponent the pot odds for a diamond flush draw?

Please explain how you computed such a bet size.

Thanks!

If he has 2 diamonds, then he has 9 outs which give him a 35% chance of making his flush with 2 cards to come. In odds, that is about 1.85 to 1.

It's very hard after the flop to make a bet without giving him the correct odds to call, because if you bet $100, which is the size of the pot, then he would be getting 2 to 1 on his money (pot would be $100 + $100 = $200), which justifies a call. So you would have to bet an amount that is actually bigger than the size of the pot, the correct amount is around $150.

Not giving the right odds usually works best and is easier after the turn, because his chances to make his hand are sensibly smaller with only 1 card to come. In the same example of a flush draw, on the turn he has 9 outs with 1 card to come, so he has a 19.5% chance of making his hand. In odds, that is 4.1 to 1. Without me having to say it, you obviously understand that the difference between 1.85 to 1 and 4.1 to 1 is enormous. If pot is $100, as in your example, a bet as small as $50 gives him 3 to 1 which makes his call incorrect. That's not to say you should bet $50, I'd bet more. The reason for that is implied odds.

The concept of implied odds is well explained in the articles section in this site. It's principle is that if you hit your hand you will squeeze some money out of your opponent, therefore you can adjust your correct odds range accordingly. I suggest you read it. There is also an article on pot odds. I just want to add here that because of the implied odds, in the example of a flush draw after the turn, a good bet size would be 3/4 pot at least, which is a pretty standard turn bet anyway. You always want to bet an amount that will show you a profit in the long run in that situation, and a loss for your opponent consequently.

I hope this helped you a little. To complete this check the articles section as I suggested. If you have trouble understanding just ask.

Actually betting $100 on the flop is sufficient to deny proper odds. Keep in mind for the flush to come on the turn the odds are 4:1 against. And if the flush doesn't come on the turn, the opponent will face another bet.

joeeagles said:

If he has 2 diamonds, then he has 9 outs which give him a 35% chance of making his flush with 2 cards to come. In odds, that is about 1.85 to 1.

It's very hard after the flop to make a bet without giving him the correct odds to call, because if you bet $100, which is the size of the pot, then he would be getting 2 to 1 on his money (pot would be $100 + $100 = $200), which justifies a call. So you would have to bet an amount that is actually bigger than the size of the pot, the correct amount is around $150.

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Errr this is just going to confuse someone who's new to odds. The 1.85:1 odds only apply if the person is all in and doesn't have to face a turn bet, which in this example I hope would not apply.

Put simply, flushy, a flush draw is a 4.22:1 from flop to turn, and a 4.11:1 underdog from turn to river to hit their diamonds. We need to give him worse pot odds than that in order to make any potential call incorrect.

Here's a little chart to help with that:

Bet: Gives odds of:

whole pot 2:1
3/4 pot 2.33:1 (7:3)
2/3 pot 2.5:1 (5:2)
1/2 pot 3:1
1/3 pot 4:1
1/4 pot 5:1

So in your example, even a 1/2 pot bet is fine, though you could definitely make more off of a looser player if you were to bet bigger.

Wow that came out terrible, sorry for that. I truly apologize for that post, my computer skills stink man. Please ignore it and read this one.

I was trying to reply to Chuck's post.

It's obviously correct that his odds from flop to turn are 4.22 to 1 (which I approximate to 4.2 to 1), if you're planning to see only 1 card. In hindsight I wish I would've explained this better. The reason why I mentioned the 1.85 to 1 odds is because I recently read an article by Ed Miller on notedpokerauthority.com in which he explained that there are many cases where it is correct to calculate and bet using odds on 2 cards to come. My mistake, I should have elaborated more on this explaining when its correct and when it isn't. It doesn't only apply to when a player is all-in. All I was trying to explain is that because of those cases it may get a little more complicated to figure odds with 2 cards to come, where instead it's much easier with 1 card to come. I realize that I created confusion and for that I apologize.

In general, it's correct to go by the 4.2 to 1 in the case of a flush draw but you must be aware of certain scenarios where the 1.85 to 1 becomes correct. My bad, I should have mentioned that.

Unfortunately, I don't know how to add a link to his article, but if you go to the site and browse you'll find it.

The math of the situation has been discussed quite nicely, but there's another aspect to this kind of situation that I find rather interesting. In the stated situation, by assuming the opponent is on a flush draw, you're putting him on the best percentage hand that isn't already beating you. This isn't always so; actually, he's going to have something worse a lot more often - nothing, a weaker A, an underpair, a gutshot, etc. In such instances, you're a bigger favorite, which means any decent bet will deny pot odds. So in practice, the question is how much to bet against the range of hands you feel he's likely to hold, with a flush draw being only one possibility.

joeeagles said:

Wow that came out terrible, sorry for that. I truly apologize for that post, my computer skills stink man. Please ignore it and read this one.

I was trying to reply to Chuck's post.

In general, it's correct to go by the 4.2 to 1 in the case of a flush draw but you must be aware of certain scenarios where the 1.85 to 1 becomes correct. My bad, I should have mentioned that.

Unfortunately, I don't know how to add a link to his article, but if you go to the site and browse you'll find it.

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Use the quote button; it makes things much cleaner and easier to read

~1.8:1 is the odds of hitting your flush from the flop to the river. ~4:1 are the odds of hitting your flush from flop to turn, or from turn to river.

The reason we can't use the 1.8:1 odds is because by using those odds, we're assuming that we get a free ride from the flop to the river. We of course can't make this assumption because there's a possibility that our opponent will bet the turn.

Of course yes, there are situations when 1.85:1 comes into play, but when we're both deep enough to have to play the turn out, I don't think we should never use these odds.

Arjonius said:

The math of the situation has been discussed quite nicely, but there's another aspect to this kind of situation that I find rather interesting. In the stated situation, by assuming the opponent is on a flush draw, you're putting him on the best percentage hand that isn't already beating you. This isn't always so; actually, he's going to have something worse a lot more often - nothing, a weaker A, an underpair, a gutshot, etc. In such instances, you're a bigger favorite, which means any decent bet will deny pot odds. So in practice, the question is how much to bet against the range of hands you feel he's likely to hold, with a flush draw being only one possibility.

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Good point, but we should still be betting enough to give bad odds to flush draws even if we know that most of the time he won't have one. Better to be safe then sorry, right?

That way not only do we give bad drawing odds, but we get value from smaller aces or middle pair or whatever our opponent might be holding on to.

joeeagles said:

Unfortunately, I don't know how to add a link to his article, but if you go to the site and browse you'll find it.

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Just highlight the address at the top of your web browser, press Ctrl + C, then write Ctrl + V in your post.

Thanks for all the replies, although I am still a little bit confused. I don't get how some of the numbers mentioned are calculated.

I'll re-read all the posts, and I'll read the articles on pot odds again.

Cool Chuck, you're totally right. When deep stacked the 1.85 to 1 never comes into play. The reason it presents itself often to me is because I mostly play tourneys, and as you know, many times in those you are dealing with 1 of the 2 players having a short stack. This situation confuses me alot many times, but with practice you get faster in doing the math. It usually is never the case in those tourneys where you start with a deep stack.

Again, in hindsight I wish I had explained it better. I'm thinking to try to get it removed since it came out very confusing and incomplete. I don't want anyone making mistakes because of it.

P.S.: Thanks for explaining those things. Lol, I think I can use a computer course.

smells_flushy said:

Thanks for all the replies, although I am still a little bit confused. I don't get how some of the numbers mentioned are calculated.

I'll re-read all the posts, and I'll read the articles on pot odds again.

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What don't you understand specifically?