Originally Posted by FixIt
However, built into that formula is the assumption that you ALWAYS have 9 outs...in other words, only the times they do not hold your outs, so there is no evening out. If tests show that on average you miss 2 outs on a flush draw, then the conventional theory of hitting cards and pot odds is in question, or just needs to be tweaked.
No, your missing the context of those outs.
Tthe calculation is based on the relationship between the outs you need and the number of cards you have to draw them from.
A two outer is bad when there are 47 cards to draw from.
A two outer is excellent if there are only three cards to draw from.
In fact, with that formula you are already *assuming* that your opponents have some of your outs.
If you flop a flush draw, you have 9 outs. Against 8 other people, you're assuming that their 16 cards hole cards have as many hearts and they would on average. If they have more, your chances of winning drop. If they have fewer, you chances of winning increase. But you do not know, so you just calculate based on known factors.
Sometimes you will have a worse chance than you calculate, sometimes you will have move, but in the long run you will be pretty close.