A brief study in forcing odds to chase

Bill_Hollorian

Bill_Hollorian

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You look down at 7,7 in the cutoff. UTG+2 raises and picks up 1 caller. Could you raise here to force implied odds post flop? Is it correct to do so? You should be way behind in the hand right now, and do not have sufficient odds to over call here. So , your pot odds dictate a fold. But what about a raise? After the flop you will now have a pot worth extra calls, and even possibly give you the correct odds to chase a set. Will the set win if it gets there?

It can be ok to raise under certain situations. What are they?

Bill
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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Ooh, I like this one. A little structured hand analysis. Lets make some assumptions, we are in a tournament, we are seen as being a tight player, the raiser is known to be smart but agressive. This may be a good time for a squeeze. Assuming there are 3 higher cards than yours among the 4 already in your 7's have a better than 50% chance of holding up after the flop, but not after the river, and assuming the button and the blinds will fold in the face of this much action an over the top raise will sandwich the raiser between yourself and the caller who may elect to raise again. According to the gap concept the caller needed a greater hand to call a raise than to open with one. Unless UTG+2 has AA-QQ he should fold. The caller is now out of position against a tight reraiser and may fold as well. If he does not, You'll know he has a monster but heads-up 7,7 is not bad and you still have outs.
Did I get this right, or is this the kind of Harringtonian thinking that got me in trouble at Foxwoods?
 
Bill_Hollorian

Bill_Hollorian

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Add value by defining your opponents hand, simultaneously deceiving the value of your own. They will be hard pressed to call without something premium.

I like that play, provided your opponent has a sufficient stack. Also, should you hit your set, it will be hidden pretty well, and you will probably get him to stack off on the flop, as it will appear that you missed.
OK the more likely scenario, you miss your set.

If an Ace rainbow hits on the flop, your opponent checks whats your play?

This is hyper agressive poker, highly profitable, highly risky.

A very unusual way to play a negotiably sub par hand, but excellent way to "change gears" on occasion.

If that Ace rainbow hits, and he checks do we check? if we bet how much and why?

Bill
 
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xdmanx007

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Personally I dump the 7,7 to a raiser preflop too easily dominated . Now if I play it I reraise with it. Your point about chasing a set, if you don't flop it, is complicated. Since I would most likely be the last raiser I will likely get the flop checked around to me, so then I could take my free card or bet. Not likely to bet the flop because at 9 bets your opponents would be correct to call with way too many hands, take the free card and THEN bet if you like what you see and get checked to. Forceing the implied odds gets me into a lot of trouble because as I am a very aggressive limit player, so generally my opponents bad preflop play actually makes their postflop calls correct because the pot is as big as I can make it preflop. anyways sweet thread!
 
robwhufc

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In this situation, I would simplify it to 2 options - dump or all in. I certainly wouldn't want to take a pair of 7's down to the river (especially not with more than one opponent). I'd probably dump them.
 
Bill_Hollorian

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Ok Lets say you are on the other side... When the Ace rainbow hits and you check, what are the range of hands you are putting your opponent on? Is 7,7 on the list of possible hands? I know it depends, lets say he is a quality player, tight, capable of being tricky at times. Still, can you put him on 7's if you don't have an ace, will you fold to a post oak bluff?

Bill
 
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xdmanx007

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OK Bill I have reread this thread 3 times now and I am struggling on your last question. Are you asking that if he reraised the flop with pocket 7's, then bet the flop? An ace on the flop hits, I currently do not have an ace or I do is what really makes the decision. I will guess that you are saying an ace falls I currently do not have an ace and my opponent bets it to me, at that point you are asking what starting hands I might put him on? An under pair is absolutely a possibility against a good player, since we are talking about flop play I very well might try a reraise since we are talking about 1 BB into a decent sized pot, but man without an actual defined hand you could go in a hundred different directions with this one! Anyways I like the thread just see if you can make it stupid(xdmanx007) proof:dontknow:
 
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