When is it clear that you beat the limit?

scaleyback

scaleyback

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I have to disagree with most of the comments here about moving up when your bankroll allows it and also with some of the comments about ROI.

In my opinion a combination of both a solid ROI over a LARGE sample (thousands of games not hundreds) and enough of a bankroll to comfortably find your feet at the next level especially within MTTs where it can take weeks or months to get an indication of your true ROI.

Of course everyone is eager to move up as soon as possible but what you will find when you move up to soon is that you are burning through your roll at a much faster rate than your previous level before you get a score, and is your roll ready for this and have you got the mental stability to handle the larger swings in money.

IMO 50/100 buyins is not a big enough roll for online MTTs on the large fields such as on pokerstars. I have had swings bigger than that on smaller fields even with a very solid ROI, people often underestimate how brutal variance can be.

I would suggest a roll of 200 buyins for large fields + a buffer of 50 - 100 buyins until you find your feet at the next level. This will at least give you an opportunity to start to find your ROI without going busto or needing to move down. Then figure out if you are feeling comfortable at that level.

for smaller fields 100 buyins + a buffer of 50 should be plenty.

Ultimately it depends on how much of a risk you want to take and how comfortable you feel making decisions with money on the line.
 
MatMackenz

MatMackenz

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I found some interesting literature about this subject on various forums.

Most of them state that you should have a positive ROI% in the games you are playing over a large sample.

You will also want to track your EVbb/100 over a large sample. Having this number be positive is crucial, as ROI% does not tell the whole story.

Here is from an article I found on Tournament Poker Edge website that is relative to the subject:

https://www.tournamentpokeredge.com/finding-leaks-using-your-poker-database/

"EVbb/100 is everything"
"When analysing your performance over a large sample of hands – and I do mean large, as in probably 50,000 hands or more, because any smaller sample will be significantly affected by variance – one number rules them all. Your EVbb/100 stat (Expected Value in big blinds per 100 hands in HM2, known as All-in Adjusted BB per 100 in PT4) is the most direct representation of your poker skill that you’ll find.
It’s significantly more useful than your ROI, because it ignores times where you simply ran hot towards the end of a tournament and binked a big score as a result. It just counts the chips you win and lose, and ignores all-in variance – a simple, reliable metric for success. The only instance where it isn’t reliable is in the case of ICM decisions, where a +cEV play might not be a +$EV play, or perhaps in a bounty tournament where -cEV decisions are necessary in order to pick up bounties."

I found this post on another forum which has a scale when to move up/down stakes using your EVbb/100 as a guide:


-5bb / 0bb = losing big in the games, should move down immediately
1bb / 3bb = playing way too high stakes, should snap move down
4bb / 5bb = decent winner, def room for a lot of improvement
6bb / 7bb = very nice win rate, should be one of the better regs in the games you're playing
8bb / 10bb = top reg in your games
11bb+ = playing too low of a buy in should move up
 
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