What does this mean??

bonflizubi

bonflizubi

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No, if you bet 100 and went head to head against an all-in who had only 80, then you are only putting 80 at risk. With that 80, let's say your hand is a 75% favorite. Your expected value from that bet is thus:

.75 * 80 + .25 * (-80) = 40

So you would get 40 added to your Net Expected Won no matter what the outcome of the hand. Then if you actually win, you get 80 added to your Amount Won, and if you lose, you get 80 subtracted from your Amount Won.

At least that's how I now understand it to work. The key is that Net Expected Won is taking away the variance that exists in Amount Won and is just tracking how good (or bad) your plays are.


Your EV calculation is correct but slightly misleading if someone isn't thinking net winnings.

The EV of Net winnings is what you showed and is correct for the graph.

I scratched my head at first reading because I did this calculation:
-The expected value is (75% x pot size ) + 25% ($0) = $120.... but that is the expected value of the play, not the net winnings. Obv this is +40 (120-80) and our equations match up.
 
PurgatoryD

PurgatoryD

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(75% x pot size ) + 25% ($0) = $120

I see this equation for EV a lot and I always wonder why the pot size includes the bet when we're typically considering whether to make the bet in the first place. It's like throwing $100 into the pot and then saying, "Hey look, I can win $100." Then again, once you've thrown the money into the pot, it's no longer yours and you do have to win to get it back.

As you've shown, I suppose it doesn't really matter because you can make the math work either way. Maybe it's just different ways of thinking. It's definitely cool to see how other people do it. And thankfully it all works out! :)
 
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