henriquemaduro
Visionary
Bronze Level
If everybody starts with the same ammount of chips, and has no rebuy, yes, our chance is 1/1000.
S
seraxel
Rock Star
Bronze Level
If you are less skilled than others, though, you will also have a less than 1/1000.
So the people you are better than will increase your probability, but the people you are worse than will decrease it.
Lena M
Legend
Loyaler
Hello.
I believe that our chances do not depend on the number of players taking part in the tournament, but only on our skills, experience and luck. Those who think that our chances depend on the number of players in the tournament, just play bingo and not poker.
Phoenix Wright
Legend
Loyaler
Math-wise, then yes with the critical assumption that everyone has the same chance of winning, but this is far from true. You can increase your chance of winning by being a better skilled player and utilizing strategies such as ICM pressure and so on.
Agreed.
darthjewel
Rock Star
Silver Level
It depends on if you think of poker as a game of luck or skills.
When you have a six side dice the probability of getting the number 6 is 1/6
because all the sides are exactly the same.
If you cheat and make a dice with one side heavier the probability of getting 6
would be different because the sides are different.
So in the game flip , where all the players go all-in they have the same chances
as they behave exactly the same,
but in a regular rules game you may expect the players of
different skills, hence their chances are different than 1/(number of players).
But if you say that in poker all is just luck, then yes all players have the same chances to win.
However if the skill matters ( at least a little ) the more experienced player has better odds.
Similar if you put Negreanu,Hellmuth and Ivy behind the table and ask them to play each one has
the chance to win of 1/3 only if you think that they are on the same level ,
but if either one is more skilled he would have a better chance.
When you have a six side dice the probability of getting the number 6 is 1/6
because all the sides are exactly the same.
If you cheat and make a dice with one side heavier the probability of getting 6
would be different because the sides are different.
So in the game flip , where all the players go all-in they have the same chances
as they behave exactly the same,
but in a regular rules game you may expect the players of
different skills, hence their chances are different than 1/(number of players).
But if you say that in poker all is just luck, then yes all players have the same chances to win.
However if the skill matters ( at least a little ) the more experienced player has better odds.
Similar if you put Negreanu,Hellmuth and Ivy behind the table and ask them to play each one has
the chance to win of 1/3 only if you think that they are on the same level ,
but if either one is more skilled he would have a better chance.
gloemcesar
Rock Star
Platinum Level
Hi there
In poker you can be at 97,2% of chance of winning the hand in the turn and you still lose sometimes in the river. nothing it's sure. your chances of winning a tournament doesn't have to do with the numbers of players it have to do with your skills and "flip luck".
In poker you can be at 97,2% of chance of winning the hand in the turn and you still lose sometimes in the river. nothing it's sure. your chances of winning a tournament doesn't have to do with the numbers of players it have to do with your skills and "flip luck".
NWPatriot
Rock Star
Silver Level
Interesting question. It has already been answered in this thread, but let me add this, if you want a numerical answer.
A) Yes, if all the players are of equal skill, then each player has a 1/1000 chance of finishing in first place. If we play 1000 tournaments, then the probability is that each player should finish in first place one time, but probabilities will not cooperate like that and someone will likely win 2 or 3 times and a few will not win at all.
B) If 10% of the field will win something in the tournament, and all 1000 players are of equal skill, then each player now has a 1/100 chance of cashing each time. Probabilities will not necessarily cooperate here either, and some players may cash 15% of the time instead of 10%, while others only cash 5% of the time, even though everyone is of the same skill.
C) If we really want to know the answer, then we need to know what our personal ROI (return on investment) is. If we know our historical tournament ROI, then we can use a "Tournament Variance Calculator" to visually and numerically see how a series of tournaments might play itself out, based on our assessment of our skill level (ROI).
https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
Good luck, and God Bless.
A) Yes, if all the players are of equal skill, then each player has a 1/1000 chance of finishing in first place. If we play 1000 tournaments, then the probability is that each player should finish in first place one time, but probabilities will not cooperate like that and someone will likely win 2 or 3 times and a few will not win at all.
B) If 10% of the field will win something in the tournament, and all 1000 players are of equal skill, then each player now has a 1/100 chance of cashing each time. Probabilities will not necessarily cooperate here either, and some players may cash 15% of the time instead of 10%, while others only cash 5% of the time, even though everyone is of the same skill.
C) If we really want to know the answer, then we need to know what our personal ROI (return on investment) is. If we know our historical tournament ROI, then we can use a "Tournament Variance Calculator" to visually and numerically see how a series of tournaments might play itself out, based on our assessment of our skill level (ROI).
https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/
Good luck, and God Bless.
10058765
Legend
Loyaler
If I would seriously ask that question myself without knowing the answer , about anyone would say I have way less chance than 1/1000.
Besides from that, if it were 1/1000 to finish 1st, also 1/1000 to finish 2nd etc.etc.etc it would be very unprofitable for all except the pokersite.