What are our chances?

YYfourU

YYfourU

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If we enter a tournament that has 1000 people, does that give us a 1-1000 chance at winning the tournament?
 
Nafor

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Yes. If we play a game with 1000 participants and only first place is desirable, then our chance is one in a thousand.
 
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fernandofcp

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That's right. It's very simple math. 1/1000 for first place. On the other hand, smaller payouts as the possibilities increase according to the proportionality related to each winning position.
 
GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

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hello

If the position of the tournament depends if we aspire to start first, the probability is that 1 in 1000
 
henriquemaduro

henriquemaduro

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If we enter a tournament that has 1000 people, does that give us a 1-1000 chance at winning the tournament?


If everybody starts with the same ammount of chips, and has no rebuy, yes, our chance is 1/1000.
 
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seraxel

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If you are more skilled than others you have a better chance than 1/1000 and their chances are less than 1/1000.


If you are less skilled than others, though, you will also have a less than 1/1000.

So the people you are better than will increase your probability, but the people you are worse than will decrease it.
 
Lena M

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If we enter a tournament that has 1000 people, does that give us a 1-1000 chance at winning the tournament?



Hello.
I believe that our chances do not depend on the number of players taking part in the tournament, but only on our skills, experience and luck. Those who think that our chances depend on the number of players in the tournament, just play bingo and not poker.
 
TheNutz4You

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I don't think it's as easy as saying 1/1000 chance. Depends a lot on how good your are. That will change things imo.
 
kurtcobain

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Mathematically, it's true... but it all depends on skill and luck, just my opinion. :)
 
Phoenix Wright

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If we enter a tournament that has 1000 people, does that give us a 1-1000 chance at winning the tournament?

Math-wise, then yes with the critical assumption that everyone has the same chance of winning, but this is far from true. You can increase your chance of winning by being a better skilled player and utilizing strategies such as ICM pressure and so on. :)

If you are more skilled than others you have a better chance than 1/1000 and their chances are less than 1/1000.


Agreed. :cool:
 
darthjewel

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It depends on if you think of poker as a game of luck or skills.
When you have a six side dice the probability of getting the number 6 is 1/6
because all the sides are exactly the same.
If you cheat and make a dice with one side heavier the probability of getting 6
would be different because the sides are different.

So in the game flip , where all the players go all-in they have the same chances
as they behave exactly the same,
but in a regular rules game you may expect the players of
different skills, hence their chances are different than 1/(number of players).

But if you say that in poker all is just luck, then yes all players have the same chances to win.
However if the skill matters ( at least a little ) the more experienced player has better odds.

Similar if you put Negreanu,Hellmuth and Ivy behind the table and ask them to play each one has
the chance to win of 1/3 only if you think that they are on the same level ,
but if either one is more skilled he would have a better chance.
 
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Cooking

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I think if it was a lottery yes, but in poker I think your chances changes a little depending of your poker skills.
 
gloemcesar

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Hi there

In poker you can be at 97,2% of chance of winning the hand in the turn and you still lose sometimes in the river. nothing it's sure. your chances of winning a tournament doesn't have to do with the numbers of players it have to do with your skills and "flip luck".
 
gloemcesar

gloemcesar

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Hi there

Poker its not lottery or bingo. its a war. :):):)
 
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alabos

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when you start the tournament yes 1 chance on 1000.....but hand by hand the chance change and are better for all........poker is hand by hand play
 
YenRodriguez

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yes, that is the possibility for the first place. as long as they all have the same playing conditions.
 
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1nsomn1a

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But as usually happens in poker, this does not mean that after playing 1000 tournaments you will definitely win it. And then you will calm yourself with distance or variance.:)
 
NWPatriot

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Interesting question. It has already been answered in this thread, but let me add this, if you want a numerical answer.

A) Yes, if all the players are of equal skill, then each player has a 1/1000 chance of finishing in first place. If we play 1000 tournaments, then the probability is that each player should finish in first place one time, but probabilities will not cooperate like that and someone will likely win 2 or 3 times and a few will not win at all.
B) If 10% of the field will win something in the tournament, and all 1000 players are of equal skill, then each player now has a 1/100 chance of cashing each time. Probabilities will not necessarily cooperate here either, and some players may cash 15% of the time instead of 10%, while others only cash 5% of the time, even though everyone is of the same skill.
C) If we really want to know the answer, then we need to know what our personal ROI (return on investment) is. If we know our historical tournament ROI, then we can use a "Tournament Variance Calculator" to visually and numerically see how a series of tournaments might play itself out, based on our assessment of our skill level (ROI).
https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

Good luck, and God Bless.
 
A

Alexandr_Gazarov

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In fact, poker is not just a game, it is the ability to think correctly. Accordingly, if you play poker, you should understand that mathematics does not always work here.
 
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COMIRRR

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Why do your math and say you have a 1 in 1000 chance ?! I, for example, don't think how many are in the tournament, I do my calculation like this: I have to be the best at my table of 9 ... give it a try!
 
0546474

0546474

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This math only works if all players are all-in all the time !!!
 
10058765

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If we enter a tournament that has 1000 people, does that give us a 1-1000 chance at winning the tournament?


If I would seriously ask that question myself without knowing the answer , about anyone would say I have way less chance than 1/1000.

Besides from that, if it were 1/1000 to finish 1st, also 1/1000 to finish 2nd etc.etc.etc it would be very unprofitable for all except the pokersite.
 
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