Variance in MTTs

[fundiver199]

There is a lot of talk about variance in MTTs, but I think, people still underestimate, how large it can actually be. And I want to illustrate this with an example of my own recent numbers. After a lackluster 2023 I ended the year on a massive heater in december 2023 getting my second biggest cash ever and several medium large cashes as well. No need to compute the exact numbers, but anyone interested can check for themselfes on sharkscope and see, it was a pretty big upswing.

Then however the good times ended abrubtly, and when I recently calculated my results for 2024, it turned out, I have now played a little over 300 MTTs with a total ROI of around -35%. Which basically mean, I am down around 110 times my average buyin. Now this is for MTTs specifically, and I have also played SnGs, where I have had a bit of a heater. So my total loss for 2024 is less than, what I lost in the MTTs.

However I still think, it goes to show, that its not for fun, when its often recommended to never buy into an MTT for more than 1% of your bankroll. A 100+ buyin downswing can happen in very little time, and its not even that uncommon. And therefore I also highly recommend to play a span of buyins, if you use the 1% rule, so that your average buyin is for less than 1% of your bankroll.

And equally important dont get dilusional, when you have been on a heater. Its natural in that situation to feel like superman and want to play much higher stakes. But as my example show, you can go directly from a huge heater to a big downswing, and if you have moved up to much and refuse to move down again, then things can get very ugly very quickly.

 

[Andyreas]

Thank you for this excellent post, @fundiver199, as always!

First of all, congratulations on your amazing cashes at the end of last year. 🎉

And sorry to hear it abruptly ended in the beginning of this year. 😵

But as my example show, you can go directly from a huge heater to a big downswing,

I can second that and provide an additional example:
On one site, I managed to sattie into a few $109 tickets very cheaply and cashed in one for about $400 which was a huge boost to my BR.

I tried an experiment and moved up stakes for up to 2% of my BR. But only some small crashes and many no-cashes could not prevent my BR from declining.

After loosing my wins from the main tournament and not cashing with the remaining tickets, I stopped this experiment before it got worse.

Since pictures speak more than 1000 words, here's the relating graph from SharkScope:

The graph is not entirely accurate due to tickets won show as $s, same as when I did not cash. So the downswing is not as big as shown but still very relevant.

The large breakeven period is where I chased a promotion but it did not result in the effect I intended and now I rarely play (there) anymore at all. 😅

 

[blueskies]

Thank you for this excellent post, @fundiver199, as always!

First of all, congratulations on your amazing cashes at the end of last year. 🎉

And sorry to hear it abruptly ended in the beginning of this year. 😵


I can second that and provide an additional example:
On one site, I managed to sattie into a few $109 tickets very cheaply and cashed in one for about $400 which was a huge boost to my BR.

I tried an experiment and moved up stakes for up to 2% of my BR. But only some small crashes and many no-cashes could not prevent my BR from declining.

After loosing my wins from the main tournament and not cashing with the remaining tickets, I stopped this experiment before it got worse.

Since pictures speak more than 1000 words, here's the relating graph from SharkScope:
View attachment 353119
The graph is not entirely accurate due to tickets won show as $s, same as when I did not cash. So the downswing is not as big as shown but still very relevant.

The large breakeven period is where I chased a promotion but it did not result in the effect I intended and now I rarely play (there) anymore at all. 😅

By chance are you talking about those BOL $109 tourneys that have a lot of satellites?

Those damn things last a long time. Way longer than I am comfortable with or have time for (I literally have to sneak in the game on my cell phone). I was checking in yesterday on one last night before I slept, and after 7 hours, people were only just getting to the bubble. Even the satellite 50x ticket ones were lasting way too long. I got some free tickets through freerolls and played for 5.5 hrs, only to lose when AK ran into aggro big stack's AA. Dude was min raising every hand. Can't lay down AK.

Earlier, the same guy made a big dent in my stack when called with Q6suited and caught a runner runner flush against me. I threebet him pre with 99 as he was min opening every hand, double barreled on flop and turn. Then he checked river when he rivered the flush. I did check the river but damage was done.

When this crap happens in cash games, it's no biggie. But it was 5.5 hrs wasted in a tourney. I don't think I will play'em anymore. Had I gotten a ticket in this satty, it would have been god knows how long to even sniff the bubble in the actual tournament.

 

[Andyreas]

But it was 5.5 hrs wasted in a tourney. I don't think I will play'em anymore. Had I gotten a ticket in this satty, it would have been god knows how long to even sniff the bubble in the actual tournament.

Yeah, that sucks. 😵

And yes and no to your question.

They changed the structure of the satellites several times. Now they are not worth it indeed. Mostly AIOF or running at unconventional times for me.

The main event usually also had about 5 hours until ITM indeed. Lots of time to invest