This is a discussion on Trips on the bubble within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; BTN: 26,454
SB: 96,336 (40.1 bb)
Hero (BB): 38,190 (15.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 5https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/images/smilies/diamond.gif 6https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/images/smilies/club.gif
7 folds, SB completes, Hero
River: (11,760) 4 (2 players)
SB bets 7,761, Hero raises to 33,150 and is all-in
My question is: should I bet the turn? As played, is it ok to get it in on the river or would you go for a min raise?
Thanks for posting.
This is hand range dependent.
If the villain is bluffing then you check the turn. Let them bluff again on river.
If the villain is betting an ace then you make a bet on the turn that helps you get stacks on the river if you slow played the flop. If villain was betting an ace we can raise the flop representing an ace ourselves. If villain will call or even 3 bet an Ax limp pre trap hand.
The question on the river is will we be called by worse when we shove?
We called a bet on a Dead board. A66. Why would we call? If it was to float why did we check turn? So if we want a 6 to look like a float we should be betting that turn.
The 7 and 4 did not bring that board to back to life. For you.
So when we shove river what hand would we raise with? What hand does villain have that calls thinking villain is ahead but is not?
Is your image so wild villain would think you would bluff river? Does your SPR effect villain's call range on river?
Can we take X6s 86 76 and 46 out of villain's range? What about 77 or 44?
Ok we can get a call from A7. Why would A7 lead that dead board on the flop?
Why would any Ace lead flop?
Just to let you know these questions have answers other than villain would not.
For instance the A7 lead flop could be because villain thinks you float too much and wants you to bluff shove turn with 2 random cards. However if we look at your SPR that is not a line an average player would take. So if villain is competent we can exclude a lead with A7 based on your SPR. Unless of course villain is brilliant then what a great way to get you to shove steal the turn. If you are overly aggressive in villain's mind.
Bet the flop and then check the turn: the caller may be thinking a steal, slow rolled a middle pair, or thinks with a paired ace he has the best hand. The situation definitely favors position and the aggressor.
If the player going all-in had a monster (unlikely), why would he shove so much on the turn when your move only suggested a trap or weak hand?
Does he have you out kicked with a set? Possibly but unlikely.
What makes the hand challenging is no pre-flop raise.
The checked turn appears weak. The perfect opportunity for the steal. I suspect a move that a variety of hands could have made.