SnG win %

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I was just figuring out what percent of SnGs I would need to win in order to make a profit and just thought i'd post them for the people who were too lazy to do the math :)
I've only done the ones that I've seen on Titan; it's the only place i play so if anyone wants me to add the 45 person PS ones or whatever i can - just tell me the payout structure

6-handed SnGs (1st place - %70, 2nd place - %30): > 1 in 3.8 times
6-handed SnGs Winner take all (%100): > 1 in 5.5 times
10-handed SnGs (%50,%30,%20): > 1 in 4.5 times
20-handed SnGs (%50,%30,%20): > 1 in 9.1 times

keep in mind that though the 20-handed seems much more profitable, it will take a whole lot more time than the others, especially the turbos
also turbos will generally give you a better hourly rate if you can cope well with the high speed
 
SexyAceJoker

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I was wondering how much ITM% do i need to be a Sit n go winner, im currently in the money 70% of the time, but im not sure if thats good enough to move up a level ... :) . Can you let me know
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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well i guess it depends on what kind of SnG you play (how many people and what is the payout structure)
actually %70 in the money sounds like you should make a nice profit regardless what number of ppl are in...even if most of those are 2nd place, you're still making a profit i believe
i think that definitely warrants a level uppage :)


ps correct me anyone if i'm wrong in any of my calculations but i think they're right :)
 
ChuckTs

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oh yeah another thing i forgot to factor in was getting 2nd and 3rd place
im not sure how to do that mathematically....
 
SexyAceJoker

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I usually come in 2 or first in the 10 people sit n goes, and 2 and first on the 18 player in pokerstars, but i still play the 3 dollar sit n goes or the lowest buy ins, until im 100% sure i should move up, i was aiming for 90% ITM but i dont think its possible due to the suckouts ( with are part of the game ) lol
 
jasondavies

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the way i see it, in a normal SnG payout 50% 30% 20%, if you want a consistant profit, you will need to
come 3rd 2 out of 3 games or 66% of the time
come 2nd 1 in 2 games or 50% of the time
come 1st 1 in 4 games or 25% of the time

either one of those ratios will have you winning more than spending, i also included the entry fee in this, i.e $3 + 40c, i included the 40 cents is what i mean
 
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jasondavies

jasondavies

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i think this is correct, im happy to be wrong

SIT AND GO PROFIT CALCULATIONS (SnG's taken from poker stars)
10 player regular payout
3rd 2 in 3 or 66%
2nd 1 in 2 or 50%
1st 1 in 4 or 25%

18 player regular payout
4th 2 in 3 or 66%
3rd 1 in 3 or 33%
2nd 1 in 4 or 25%
1st 1 in 6 or 16%

45 player regular payout
7th 2 in 3 or 66%
6th 1 in 2 or 50%
5th 1 in 3 or 33%
4th 1 in 4 or 25%
3rd 1 in 6 or 16%
2nd 1 in 9 or 11%
1st 1 in 12 or 8%
 
H8POKER

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I used to play the $5 sitngo 10 person on party poker and did well so I started playing the $10 and I didn't really notice any difference in the level of play. So if you have the money I would play at a higher level but if you don't do to well just drop back down when you still have like $12-15 so you can win some more and try again
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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weird thing for me thats happened is that i was winning consistently at the $5 at Titan, and decided to move up to $10 and had plenty of bankroll pad to do so
i found the level of play to be pretty much the same, but for some reason could not win one very frustrating - i lost like 8 in a row and i think maybe i placed once...
i think i overestimated the level of play at those levels and played too tight or something
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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jasondavies said:
i think this is correct, im happy to be wrong

SIT AND GO PROFIT CALCULATIONS (SnG's taken from poker stars)
10 player regular payout
3rd 2 in 3 or 66%
2nd 1 in 2 or 50%
1st 1 in 4 or 25%

18 player regular payout
4th 2 in 3 or 66%
3rd 1 in 3 or 33%
2nd 1 in 4 or 25%
1st 1 in 6 or 16%

45 player regular payout
7th 2 in 3 or 66%
6th 1 in 2 or 50%
5th 1 in 3 or 33%
4th 1 in 4 or 25%
3rd 1 in 6 or 16%
2nd 1 in 9 or 11%
1st 1 in 12 or 8%

where do you get the %'s from?
im not at all saying they're wrong, i just don't understand the math behind them

for me i just found the total amount of money lost:
10 (games played;chosen randomly)* $5.50 (amount payed for $5 SnG) = $55

then amount winning in order to crack that amount of losses:
1/x (min. number of games needed to be won) * 10 (games played) * $21 (profits earned for 1st place) = $55
then solve for x
so i would need to win at least 1 in x times
but again, i did not factor in placing 2nd or 3rd or any other cash placing (how did you do this?)
 
jasondavies

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i cant work out if your saying im wrong or not but,
all i did was take the entry fee, say 3 plus 40 cents entry fee, and then got the prize money, say 15 dollars for 1st, then counted how many buy ins it takes to catch up i.e 3.4 + 3.4 +3.4 + 3.4 = 13.6 another buy in would take you over the 15 dollar winnings, so if you win 1 in 4 you will be ahead, do you follow me, and as for the percentages, 100% divided by 3 is 33.33333 so 2/3rds is 66% 1 in 4 is 25%, i hope you follow me on this

$20 bankroll, entry 3.40 (16.60) lose, entry 3.40 (13.20) lose entry 3.40 (9.80) win 15, (24.80) entry 3.40 (21.40) lose, 1 in 4 and you are ahead
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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so you basically did the same as me - i understand now (i wasn't at all saying you're wrong i just didn't understand how you did them)
the SnGs where i play have 10% buy-in fee which would explain the small differences in %'s too

ps your $20 is showing 1 in 5, not 4 i think the math is a little off or something
ok my brain hurts im done with this :p
 
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