Shoving 10BBs UTG on MTT bubble

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ph_il

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I think I may have found my biggest money leak when playing MTTs.

Blinds were 400/800, I was sitting on ~8.1K, and was dealt 88. The stack sizes behind me up to the CO were very short, between 2K-4K. The CO and BTN were sitting on ~40K each and the blinds were both smaller than my stack.

I decided to shove and at best pick up the blinds, get called by a smaller stack and knock them out, or get called by the big stack and hopefully double up.

I lost the hand and was out of the MTT. I took a look at MTT lobby and noticed that I was the bubble boy, busting 20th/19 places paid. The bottom player had 120 chips in their stack. A closer inspection and my stack size put me at around the 8th place, which I found interesting as I only had 10BBs.

So, did I make a mistake in shoving the 88s UTG? I've always been a player who advocates shoving hands when you're at 10BBs, but maybe I need to take a different approach to the strategy on the money bubble. If I had been paying more attention I would've noticed the severe short stack and maybe would've folded, most likely got into the money, and found another spot to shove....but is folding the right move?

What hands are we calling and folding here? I'm sure we're def shoving KK+, but AK? Or maybe we just fold. I don't know the formula, but I'm sure there is a way to calculate your risk vs reward for these types of situations? If anyone knows it or can point me in the right direction, I appreciate it.

I guess my ultimate question is: What is the most profitable play in this situation?
 
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WiZZiM

Legend
most profitable play long term is to jam it gives us more of a shot at cashing deep in the final table.

However your personal situation can also dictate what you do here, if cashing helps you a ton, say you are deep in a higher buyin tournament, then you can consider folding or running down the clock as much as possible. it also depends on the money bubble we are talking about here, typically we're gettingour money back when we make the bubble, others you may be making more if it's a smaller field tournament which may be more worth while cashing first then going for the win.
 
smallfrie

smallfrie

Lucky Ducky
Awards
2
Yeah it would be nice to have a playable stack that you make standard raises with and abuse the bubble but with a shove or fold stack and being in no immediate danger of busting before the bubble I think your main consideration should be getting paid. Accumulating chips at bubble time is great but sometimes you can and sometimes you are just not in the position to do it.
 
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ph_il

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Two good and different replies.

I'm a player who doesn't mind busting on the bubble when trying to make a bigger stack. Min cashing doesn't mean that much to me because the stakes I play are low. I think if were a bubble situation where last place had a similar stack size to mine, I would've shoved with 88 and hope to jump up with a bigger stack.

However, I'm almost guaranteed to get paid because severe short stack is going all-in next hand and likely to lose. So, it's debatable between shoving and risking bubbling for a bigger stack or folding and making the money and riding it out as the shorter stacks get shove happy. I think 88 is also a problematic hand. It's right in the middle of of the paired hands. I think smaller pairs, i might lean towards folding, 77-99 is a personal coinflip, and 1010+ is an easy shove.
 
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Alexandru24

Rock Star
This is a good, profitable shove in the long run. In this case, it's sad that one player that only had 120 chips got paid and you did not. In this particular case i think the tournament was hand-for-hand so you can't run down the clock?

If this was a big buy-in tournament and a min cash was important for you you can just fold your way into money there. gl
 
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ph_il

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Honestly, I don't even think about running the clock or when it gets down to hand-to-hand. That might be another leak of mine.

When I'm short, I just look for reasons to fold or shove my hand. I should pay more attention to the lobby when it's close the bubble. Maybe I can assess my situation better.
 
M

Mug

Enthusiast
I despise having to play this tight, but in this tournament format with stack sizes the way they were, I am letting the bubble burst. Especially when I am sitting in 8th place and there is a player with only an ante remaining.

By shoving you slightly increase your chances of making it further and to possibly one of the top 3 payouts, but risk far too much as you still had more than half the field covered. When half the field doesn't even have 10BB you were likely to see 4-5 other players bust in the next 10 hands. As soon as that player lost his last ante and the bubble burst a lot of other opportunities were going to present themselves. I'm guessing a few short stacks were in ATC territory.
 
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ph_il

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Yeah, there were quite a number of short stacks sitting on 1K-4K in chips that were very likely just waiting for the bubble to burst and would be pushing ATC after it did.

What if you had KK+, would you still fold in the same situation?
 
M

Mug

Enthusiast
Even in this situation I am still shoving QQ+ no matter what. I think I could reason with myself that I was still taking a necessary risk. But laying down a hand like JJ or AK wouldn't be easy. If it wasn't basically 1 hand away from the bubble it would be a much easier decision. I am glad this situation doesn't present itself often.
 
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WiZZiM

Legend
This is a good, profitable shove in the long run. In this case, it's sad that one player that only had 120 chips got paid and you did not. In this particular case i think the tournament was hand-for-hand so you can't run down the clock?

If this was a big buy-in tournament and a min cash was important for you you can just fold your way into money there. gl

if you wait and someone busts then you are ITM, so you can run down the clock but not as much if the hand for hand format was not in play
 
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ph_il

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Shoving AK and QJ
shoving QJ? really?
Want to win? Shove! Want to cash and probably not win? Time out and fold.
Of course I want to win, but is shoving 88 there the best play when someone is virtually all in and likely to bubble? If I shove I'm looking at 3 different outcomes:

-I shove, everyone folds and I pick up ~2K chips, leaving me still around 8th place and ITM. This is an $11 MTT, 19th pays $24. I'm +$13. [decent scenario].

-I shove, get called, and win. I now have a 16K stack, not great but much better, and am ITM. +$13 [best scenario]

-I shove, get called, and lose. Out of MTT and did not cash. -$24 [worst scenario]. I say I'm -$24 because I was guaranteed a cash against someone who only had an ante left. I'm risking $24 to win $14. Yes, one can argue what I'm risking to win a lot more if I finish higher, but we can't guarantee that I'll finish any higher if the shove went in my favor. So, I'm only thinking about what I'm guaranteed to win/lose at the moment.

88 is such a weird hand, too. I'm hoping that anyone who calls has a smaller pair, but there are so many hand combinations that someone might call with that puts me in a scary race situation or have me dominated. J10s+, Q10s+, K10s+, A10s+, 99+

Another factor is the severe short stack. If the bottom stacks 20th-17th had ~3K stacks each, I'd have no problem shoving here because the bubble probably isn't going to burst any time soon and they were probably waiting it out. I'd take that chance, but against someone who is just an ante away from busting...it's a lot of risk.
 
PershingSt

PershingSt

Visionary
Awards
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I think this is a very specific situation where folding may have been better because of the extreme shorter stacks on the direct money bubble , however shoving 88 here wit 10bbs in mtts is pretty standard and optimal play . I agree that maybe try and watch your mtt lobby a bit more so you know the situation you are in each time . Overall though as others have said your decision to shove and play for the win is in no way a bad one , you made a profitable shove that will show a +cEV over the long run , don't let a little bad variance make you question your play too much .
 
eidikos

eidikos

Visionary
Awards
4
hi!
my opinion on this is that you should shove there.aim to the top places of the tournament and not to just get paid after the bubble
only if the buy in of the tournament is too big, you could fold there
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

Legend
shoving QJ? really?Of course I want to win, but is shoving 88 there the best play when someone is virtually all in and likely to bubble? If I shove I'm looking at 3 different outcomes:

-I shove, everyone folds and I pick up ~2K chips, leaving me still around 8th place and ITM. This is an $11 MTT, 19th pays $24. I'm +$13. [decent scenario].

-I shove, get called, and win. I now have a 16K stack, not great but much better, and am ITM. +$13 [best scenario]


-I shove, get called, and lose. Out of MTT and did not cash. -$24 [worst scenario]. I say I'm -$24 because I was guaranteed a cash against someone who only had an ante left. I'm risking $24 to win $14. Yes, one can argue what I'm risking to win a lot more if I finish higher, but we can't guarantee that I'll finish any higher if the shove went in my favor. So, I'm only thinking about what I'm guaranteed to win/lose at the moment.

88 is such a weird hand, too. I'm hoping that anyone who calls has a smaller pair, but there are so many hand combinations that someone might call with that puts me in a scary race situation or have me dominated. J10s+, Q10s+, K10s+, A10s+, 99+

Another factor is the severe short stack. If the bottom stacks 20th-17th had ~3K stacks each, I'd have no problem shoving here because the bubble probably isn't going to burst any time soon and they were probably waiting it out. I'd take that chance, but against someone who is just an ante away from busting...it's a lot of risk.

Ok then, my question to you is:

How big of a pocket pair are you willing to fold in this spot to guarantee the money?

Can you fold jacks here? Not much different than 88. How about AA, KK, or QQ?

Are you rolled for this game or is a min cash meaningful to you?
 
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WiZZiM

Legend
folding doesn't give up our chances of making it deep, it's just a missed spot and since it's UTG it really won't affect things as much as say not jamming reallly wide when you are in the SB or button, that will have more of an effect on your long term cashing that making this jam will.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

Legend
folding doesn't give up our chances of making it deep, it's just a missed spot and since it's UTG it really won't affect things as much as say not jamming reallly wide when you are in the SB or button, that will have more of an effect on your long term cashing that making this jam will.

My bad, I missed the fact it was UTG!

I'd probably still shove it but it's a much tougher decision, for some reason I thought you were in the hijack or something.
 
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ph_il

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My bad, I missed the fact it was UTG!

I'd probably still shove it but it's a much tougher decision, for some reason I thought you were in the hijack or something.
LOL. Yeah, I'm UTG. From the HJ or BTN, I'm happy to shove 88 there. UTG is a bit different though, to answer your questions from your previous post, I'm comfortable shoving JJ+and AKs from UTG in this situation. 99-1010 maybe, leaning more towards a yes and everything below is a bit tough. Only because, like I said in another post, with 22-88, I'm either dominated against a bigger pair or I'm flipping against over cards. BCS is they have a smaller pair and the smaller my pair, the less likely that is. 88 is right in the middle.

Yes, I am rolled the MTT and no the min-cash isn't important to me. I'm always looking for the win, but this was just an interesting situation and I just wanted to know if shoving was the correct move.
 
J

joe777

Legend
Its depend,i'll fold if its a satty for sure,no need to take the unnecessary risk.
 
Mason Pye

Mason Pye

Rock Star
It really depends, if this was a satellite, I would just fold. If you were also playing for the min-cash then folding would be OK too. However, if you wanted to go for the win and maximise your profits, then a shove would be fine in this spot.
 
atlantafalcons0

atlantafalcons0

Legend
LOL. Yeah, I'm UTG. From the HJ or BTN, I'm happy to shove 88 there. UTG is a bit different though, to answer your questions from your previous post, I'm comfortable shoving JJ+and AKs from UTG in this situation. 99-1010 maybe, leaning more towards a yes and everything below is a bit tough. Only because, like I said in another post, with 22-88, I'm either dominated against a bigger pair or I'm flipping against over cards. BCS is they have a smaller pair and the smaller my pair, the less likely that is. 88 is right in the middle.

Yes, I am rolled the MTT and no the min-cash isn't important to me. I'm always looking for the win, but this was just an interesting situation and I just wanted to know if shoving was the correct move.

I'm really convinced it still is, It is right on the cusp of strong enough though and lately I've been trying to check the lobby late like this so I don't miss anything. One more trip through the blinds seriously affects your fold equity so I really think it's a solid move.

Are you folding AQ here?
 
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Lekoo

Rock Star
Depends of your bankroll and the size of the mincash. If min cashing in that tourney was something like 10$ and you have bankroll more than 1000$ it is not so important to get ITM, so shoving is right decision there. But if mincashing means a lot to your bankroll, then you made a bad decision there when there was someone very very short.
 
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Dilounette

Rising Star
I am sure that I fold 88 in this situation. QQ I am in the trouble but i thinks i fold and i shove KK AA. But i don't have a big bankroll so when I can taka money I take.
 
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Ruben7442

Rising Star
You know that when you shove it and get called probably will have around 45-50% chance of winning the pot. In your situation UTG and on the bubble, I wouldn't take that risk. Especially with a relative healthy stack (compared to others).
 
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