I was fiddling around with HH's this morning. I was curious about how good a hand AQ was to open shove in short stack situations. I just assumed that it would be crushing opponents ranges when called. Surprisingly that was not the case. I don't really have the time right now to provide an in depth report but here's the break down.
At full tables I have open shoved AQs and AQo 190 times from all positions. Of those 190 times I have been called 88 times. Of those 88 times, I have only been a clear favorite 23 times. In only 26% of the instances have I been more than a 1% or 2% favorite. That's it! You'd think there would have been alot of dominated Ax hands, or KQ, KJ type of hands but not so. I did see more of that when I shoved from late position or the blinds, as you would expect but for the most part it was AK, AQ or any pair types of hands that I found myself up against.
All together I won only 59% of all the hands I shoved, including the times where I won without seeing a flop. I really expected this number to be more like 75% to 85%.
Here's the breakdown by position where the first number is the times I've been called by a worse hand and the second number is the total instances.
SB 3/3
6OB 0/7
5OB 3/19
4OB 4/14
3OB 3/8
2OB 5/14
1OB 2/9
BTN 3/14
Total 23/88
Wish I could spend a little more time on this but I knew that if I didn't post it now it would just get shelved and I'd probably never get back to it.
