Minimum hand to call an all-in during the final table bubble

[flint]

Wurly, your numbers are off somewhat. How is the top 3 spots so unlikely if OP is the second chip leader at the start of the hand? Assuming that the skill level was equal (as in a computer simulation), OP would in the long run finish according to level of chips after fold.

I do agree that with the added info (that villain was also being very aggressive and a decent player) means that calling with the jacks is very likely to be the most profitable option.

I find it interesting that many people have commented the specific hand, but since the question of the whole thread is what is the minimum to call an all-in in this situation, I would say that TT is already probably close and nines could be folded.

 

[Goodwooter]

A fairly ez fold here...JJ is about 51 percent(i believe) against 2 overcards...assuming he doesnt have a better pair already(which villian did) a loss in the hand left you with about 5 bbs where a fold left you with just over 20.

cheers and gl

 

[WurlyQ]

Wurly, your numbers are off somewhat. How is the top 3 spots so unlikely if OP is the second chip leader at the start of the hand? Assuming that the skill level was equal (as in a computer simulation), OP would in the long run finish according to level of chips after fold.

Look at what I was responding to please... Obviously, we can not have a 0% chance to finish in any given spot if we still have chips. I was illustrating a point (that the money is in the top 3 or so finishing spots). I was using a simplified finishing probability distribution so that I wouldn't scare away 99% of whoever reads that post. If you're talking about ICM, I'm almost certain that it would tell you that this is a snap call.

If you want to show any logic or math that proves the money is NOT in the top 3 or so finishing spots using an actual prize distribution and reasonable finishing distributions, or if you want to calculate $EV for this situation, feel free. It will tell you that this is a snap call against everything but the tightest of reshove ranges.

I do agree that with the added info (that villain was also being very aggressive and a decent player) means that calling with the jacks is very likely to be the most profitable option.

I find it interesting that many people have commented the specific hand, but since the question of the whole thread is what is the minimum to call an all-in in this situation, I would say that TT is already probably close and nines could be folded.

baudib and I have already responded to this, but this depends entirely on what you think villain's range is. I gave my range as never being tighter than TT+, AK and how much wider it gets depending on villain reshove range while baudib said he may fold AQ while calling other times with QJs so I'm guessing he's looking at a similar range.

Here are approximate calling ranges given villain reshove ranges requiring 40% equity and having no edge:
5% reshove range: TT+, AK
10% reshove range: 66+, AJ+
20% reshove range: 22+, A7+, KJ+

Responses above