Is it Variance or Fate?

[CDNMAN 42]

I know we all run into streaks which are bad and sometimes good, but this stuff commonly called Variance leaves me wondering???
Repeatedly I get hands which are hard if not unrealistic to fold and repeatedly I lose and get knocked out of tourneys..what is the defence, really, I mean hands like AKs, AQs, KK, QQ, etc. I get these end up all in and bam am gone. I guess my only defence is to fold when raised or jammed regardless of what I hold?? This is the latest example:
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8250cAddl

 

[Memphis legend]

Variance or luck, is a part of the game you can't escape. In my opinion it takes more luck to win a tournament than to win in a cash game, because in a cash game the blinds don't change. In a tournament, sooner or later you gotta play with less than a premium hand. Live games you can wait till the cows come home to get a decent hand. Case in point, I didn't cash in the last wsop circuit in Tunica, so I went and played 1-3 no limit. I waited for 3 hours to get a hand. I saw at my table a guy sit down, and first hand, first bet go all in.. he lost.. He went in his pocket 5 times (by my count) and played that way every time. in 15 minutes he lost a Grand. His last hand he was UTG. He didn't go all in but raised to $20.. I went all in, with ace king, suited. I wouldn't have done that except for our friend, cause from his history I knew he played crap, and if variance got me, then so be it. well,, I crushed him, with ace high. He called with queen jack off, and neither one of us hit. he finally got up, and I got my tournament buy in back. Bottom line, I couldn't have waited that long in a tournament cause the blinds would've ate me up. So, play as well as you can in a tournament, but if your card dead like I was,,,, oh well....

 

[SharkyShark1]

Exactly what Memphis Legend said, with tournament poker the lucky comes more and more in play in later stages of the tournament where the blinds increase and the 'value' of your stack decreases. Cash games are more a game where you can wait and play 'better' poker.

 

[BIGAUS]

I guess the answer first depends on if you're someone who believes in fate. If you do, then you're more likely to believe that your stretches of variance are indeed fate. In later stages in tournaments where people tend to play tighter, you're more likely to lose with your premium hands because opponents often have premium hands as well.

 

[marvinsytan]

just variance play more games it will just level out

 

[fundiver199]

I guess my only defence is to fold when raised or jammed regardless of what I hold??

No. Your only defense is patience and bankroll management. Coolers like running AK into AA are part of poker, and in the long run they happen to everybody at the same frequenzy, and with short stacks like in your example hand everybody gets it in with AK and usually lose. So you dont lose - or win - a single dollar from these hands in the long run. However if getting unlucky cause you to play poorly AKA "tilt", THEN you will lose to players, who have better emotional control.

 

[alien666dj]

It's not variance and it's not fate. This is the lack of desire to develop, that is, to work on your game, the lack of reading skills of opponents.

 

[0546474]

The higher the level of your game, the less you are subject to variance, so improve your level !!!

 

[LetterRip]

I know we all run into streaks which are bad and sometimes good, but this stuff commonly called Variance leaves me wondering???
Repeatedly I get hands which are hard if not unrealistic to fold and repeatedly I lose and get knocked out of tourneys..what is the defence, really, I mean hands like AKs, AQs, KK, QQ, etc. I get these end up all in and bam am gone. I guess my only defence is to fold when raised or jammed regardless of what I hold?? This is the latest example:
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/8250cAddl

What is likely happening is you are playing bad early in the tournament (either a super nit who waits for a hand and slowly blinds away; or a loose passive who plays lots of pots and bleeds chips hoping to hit big) and thus are so short late in the tournament that losing a flip knocks you out at the expected frequency.

So you need to improve your deep stack play, so that you aren't short later in the tournament and can survive the occassional loss of a flip.