How bad can you run, before it becomes a lack of skill?

[CRRRRI7]

Hello everyone, let me start by introducing myself as this is my first post on this forum. I'm a college student studying business science, I live in Belgium, I'm 24 years old, like to watch football (the European one) and currently try to move up the stakes on pokerstars.

I've been playing poker for over 7 years now, but with huge periods within where I didn't play any hand at all. Recently though, I refound my love for the game and thought about making an extra income from it within a year. I started grinding NL2 zoom 6max and regular 9-mantables with the $16 I had left in my account from the last time I played on Pokerstars.

Within 4 weeks, I upped my bankroll to $200 within 100k hands, with a 7,57 bb/100 for 76k hands of zoom and around 5 bb/100 at regular tables. I always play 4 tables of zoom and because of the ring game table cap, 4 regular tables. I decided to move up the stakes and started playing NL5 because I'm obviously beating NL2 over a longer period of time. The first day at NL5, everything went fine and I won over 10 BI's. The day after, I lost those 10 BI's again due to in my opinion bad variance. No problem, because day three and four, I won 15 BI's, to eventually peak at 282$. Sadly, that's when the nightmare started.

Suddenly I can't almost win with any big hand anymore. I'm not kidding when I tell you that from my last 20 sets, I've lost my money at least 12 times. Let's visualize what I mean with some examples.

This is all zoom 6max. UTG, I raise TT 4 BB's, get called by button.

Flop comes: TxA

I decide to bet the flop for 2/3 the pot. Villain calls

Turn: A

I decide to bet again, but now a potsize bet. Villain calls.

River: K

I bet potsize again, villain shoves, I call, he shows AK.


Another crazy example.

I've TT in SB, open 4 BB's and get called by BB.

Flop: Tcxc5

I bet, bb calls

Turn: 5c

I bet again, villain calls

River: Jc

Now there are 4 clubs on the table, I decide to shove to force maximum pressure on a broadway flush card, villain calls, show JJ.


I had to fold a set of K's on the river to a board: TKJxA
I played this hand very agressively, because of the drawy board on the flop.


I lose set Q's vs set A's on the flop, I get runnered runnered almost all the time, KK lost 5 times in a row to AK. AA get cracked on dry flops vs sets or two pairs.

Today I lost full house vs quads.. Set of 6's got rivered by a set of K's.. These situations keep on happening and at the moment I'm 20 BI's down at 173$. Without tilt, this may have been 17 BI's, but still way too high.

So I'm wondering, I know I've still a lot of leaks in my game, but I'm reading a lot of books and articles, watching training sessions on Youtube, review my hands in HEM3, even apply loads of filters to try to understand which situations to avoid, but this downswing is almost crushing my soul. I've lost all my confidence in my play. Is there maybe someone who would want to help me review my hands to find any leaks in my game? Because I'm afraid to make changes to profitable plays because of these bad luck situations..

Many thanks in advance!

 

[PHX]

Downswings can last lost the worst part is it can affect your game as you start playing to avoid beats and second guessing yourself instead of playing optimal way.

In poker you need a short term memory when it comes to beats got to flush them out of your system. What's lost is lost cannot change it can only start a new.

Take a week break completely away from Poker. Find something else you enjoy doing for that week to do. For me I catch up on movies and play a few video games or do something outdoor.

After the week start back NL2. Remember what you did and how you played when you upped your bankroll by $200. Keep the positive mindset.

Best of luck.

Hello everyone, let me start by introducing myself as this is my first post on this forum. I'm a college student studying business science, I live in Belgium, I'm 24 years old, like to watch football (the European one) and currently try to move up the stakes on Pokerstars.

I've been playing poker for over 7 years now, but with huge periods within where I didn't play any hand at all. Recently though, I refound my love for the game and thought about making an extra income from it within a year. I started grinding NL2 zoom 6max and regular 9-mantables with the $16 I had left in my account from the last time I played on Pokerstars.

Within 4 weeks, I upped my bankroll to $200 within 100k hands, with a 7,57 bb/100 for 76k hands of zoom and around 5 bb/100 at regular tables. I always play 4 tables of zoom and because of the ring game table cap, 4 regular tables. I decided to move up the stakes and started playing NL5 because I'm obviously beating NL2 over a longer period of time. The first day at NL5, everything went fine and I won over 10 BI's. The day after, I lost those 10 BI's again due to in my opinion bad variance. No problem, because day three and four, I won 15 BI's, to eventually peak at 282$. Sadly, that's when the nightmare started.

Suddenly I can't almost win with any big hand anymore. I'm not kidding when I tell you that from my last 20 sets, I've lost my money at least 12 times. Let's visualize what I mean with some examples.

This is all zoom 6max. UTG, I raise TT 4 BB's, get called by button.

Flop comes: TxA

I decide to bet the flop for 2/3 the pot. Villain calls

Turn: A

I decide to bet again, but now a potsize bet. Villain calls.

River: K

I bet potsize again, villain shoves, I call, he shows AK.


Another crazy example.

I've TT in SB, open 4 BB's and get called by BB.

Flop: Tcxc5

I bet, bb calls

Turn: 5c

I bet again, villain calls

River: Jc

Now there are 4 clubs on the table, I decide to shove to force maximum pressure on a broadway flush card, villain calls, show JJ.


I had to fold a set of K's on the river to a board: TKJxA
I played this hand very agressively, because of the drawy board on the flop.


I lose set Q's vs set A's on the flop, I get runnered runnered almost all the time, KK lost 5 times in a row to AK. AA get cracked on dry flops vs sets or two pairs.

Today I lost full house vs quads.. Set of 6's got rivered by a set of K's.. These situations keep on happening and at the moment I'm 20 BI's down at 173$. Without tilt, this may have been 17 BI's, but still way too high.

So I'm wondering, I know I've still a lot of leaks in my game, but I'm reading a lot of books and articles, watching training sessions on Youtube, review my hands in HEM3, even apply loads of filters to try to understand which situations to avoid, but this downswing is almost crushing my soul. I've lost all my confidence in my play. Is there maybe someone who would want to help me review my hands to find any leaks in my game? Because I'm afraid to make changes to profitable plays because of these bad luck situations..

Many thanks in advance!

 

[bigpappa325]

At least its a regulated site. That stuff happens so often on Acr you become immune to it. My choices are limited so i either except it or stop playing. I guess small profits are better than nothing. good luck and wish i could play at stars.

 

[pentazepam]

Before you have at least one million hands it is almost impossible to draw any statistical conclusion about your true win rate. 100 000 hands can give a hint but not much more.

And even if you totally crush the level/stake you play you can easily go break even or lose for a period of say 3 months if you are unlucky.

So to bring up some hands with flopped sets as examples don't prove anything.

I played as a semi-pro half time between 2003 and 2014 (retired now). And when you play million of hands you see every possible scenario.

As the saying goes: you will run worse than you ever thought possible.

The times I have got all the money in and it comes runner-runner (two or three outs on the turn and one or two outs on the river is so many that I can't pick one).

But just for you: a total maniac raise big pre-flop and I 3-bet big with AK. The flop comes AK2 rainbow. I bet and he goes all-in for for like 200BB. Since he is a total maniac I insta-call and he shows A7. The turn comes a 7 and the river brings another 7.

I reload and the hand after the same villain calls my all-in when the board is 10sJsQs2h and I hold 8s9s for the straight flush and he has a King high flush and the river comes As of course and I lose to a higher SF.

You will flop quads and lose. You will flop straight flushes and lose. You will flop top full house and lose. You will flop the nut flush and lose. I guess you get the picture

The only hand that won't get outdrawn is of course if you have a royal straight flush.

If you want to become a professional, especially in the tough online scene (over 25NL at least) downswings of up to 100BI that can last for months is not that uncommon. I'm not saying it happens to every winning player often. But if you play long enough it will happen.

And if you are unlucky it can happen in the beginning before you have time to build a real bankroll as it did for you.

 

[fundiver199]

A 20 BI downswing or upswing is not completely uncommon. All poker players will experience that sooner or later. You can get an idea about variance on this site:

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

The standard deviation for 6-max is typically around 100, but it depends on your playing style. I am not sure exactly how, but I think, you can get your actual number from PT4.

 

[CRRRRI7]

Many thanks for all the replies!

I understand poker being a nasty b**** sometimes, while other times it's the complete opposite and you love the game for all that it is, but it just sucks that this happens the moment I decided to move up a limit..

Do you guys think it's possible I beat nl2 fairly easy and totally get beaten up at nl5? Maybe getting all my money in at the wrong moments, while being unable to get value of the hands where I do have an edge on my opponent?

 

[Biibel]

Exaple A is not bad luck, surely your villains range got AK?

 

[CRRRRI7]

Exaple A is not bad luck, surely your villains range got AK?

Sure, it's not that I didn't know it was gonna be AK, thing is, there were already so many chips in the pot, I couldn't fold anymore at that point. And no bad luck, at the flop he has maybe 4% chance to win the pot, how can that not be bad luck?

 

[Biibel]

Sure, it's not that I didn't know it was gonna be AK, thing is, there were already so many chips in the pot, I couldn't fold anymore at that point. And no bad luck, at the flop he has maybe 4% chance to win the pot, how can that not be bad luck?

Your action on the flop is right, after turn right(ish) but after river theres no reason to bet. Ofc you were pot commited at this point, but my hot take is that theres no bad luck there.You could have been dead after turn already.

I dont say you play this hand bad, but in zoom, you don't really get much action without villain having AX or pockets in the beginning. So turn-card is when you should hear the alarms going on.

 

[bigpappa325]

i would rather be card dead then swinging down with good hands. Swing come and go just have to manage. Yesterday was just hell for me. For some reason i don't get aces very often. Got them four times yesterday and lost three with two allin pre flop. Two of the times i ended up flopping houses then getting pushed all in. Very last hand with the last of my roll was second hand of the night of aces back to back.First aces i pushed and just got blinds. Second aces Pushed whole buy in on a min raise and he called with sevens. Flop was k,7,7. Quads again against my aces in less than 200 hands.

You have to decide if your just the most unlucky guy or what.

Ill be honest i win bit more than i loose online. But in last 4 years i can honestly say i have never had a heater(upswing) online. Last one i do remember was when party poker was legal here. This isn't to say i didn't have good sessions. I find live play to be softer and more lucrative, Much more lucrative.

good luck

 

[eetenor]

Many thanks for all the replies!

I understand poker being a nasty b**** sometimes, while other times it's the complete opposite and you love the game for all that it is, but it just sucks that this happens the moment I decided to move up a limit..

Do you guys think it's possible I beat nl2 fairly easy and totally get beaten up at nl5? Maybe getting all my money in at the wrong moments, while being unable to get value of the hands where I do have an edge on my opponent?

Thank U 4 Posting

Looking at your bet sizing in all hands it would seem that you are expecting weak villains to call any sizing. If we are playing weak villains that we can get max value from all the time and then we start playing vs villains that fold even 10% more often we can have trouble getting enough value just max value betting.

As well, if our villains are now paying attention to how we play, not just playing their hand, an unbalanced betting strategy favors our villains not us.

I would be looking to see how I was playing my draws, my weaker hands and my bluffs to see if I was unbalanced.

5nl is not a big jump but 1 player who is paying attention on a 6 max table is a 20% increase in villain skill on the table.

Hope this helps.

 

[CRRRRI7]

Thank U 4 Posting

Looking at your bet sizing in all hands it would seem that you are expecting weak villains to call any sizing. If we are playing weak villains that we can get max value from all the time and then we start playing vs villains that fold even 10% more often we can have trouble getting enough value just max value betting.

As well, if our villains are now paying attention to how we play, not just playing their hand, an unbalanced betting strategy favors our villains not us.

I would be looking to see how I was playing my draws, my weaker hands and my bluffs to see if I was unbalanced.

5nl is not a big jump but 1 player who is paying attention on a 6 max table is a 20% increase in villain skill on the table.

Hope this helps.

So you would advise me to mix up my betting strategy? Sometimes small bets with big hands and big bets with small hands?

I'll try that! Thanks for the advice!

 

[CRRRRI7]

Before you have at least one million hands it is almost impossible to draw any statistical conclusion about your true win rate. 100 000 hands can give a hint but not much more.

And even if you totally crush the level/stake you play you can easily go break even or lose for a period of say 3 months if you are unlucky.

So to bring up some hands with flopped sets as examples don't prove anything.

I played as a semi-pro half time between 2003 and 2014 (retired now). And when you play million of hands you see every possible scenario.

As the saying goes: you will run worse than you ever thought possible.

The times I have got all the money in and it comes runner-runner (two or three outs on the turn and one or two outs on the river is so many that I can't pick one).

But just for you: a total maniac raise big pre-flop and I 3-bet big with AK. The flop comes AK2 rainbow. I bet and he goes all-in for for like 200BB. Since he is a total maniac I insta-call and he shows A7. The turn comes a 7 and the river brings another 7.

I reload and the hand after the same villain calls my all-in when the board is 10sJsQs2h and I hold 8s9s for the straight flush and he has a King high flush and the river comes As of course and I lose to a higher SF.

You will flop quads and lose. You will flop straight flushes and lose. You will flop top full house and lose. You will flop the nut flush and lose. I guess you get the picture

The only hand that won't get outdrawn is of course if you have a royal straight flush.

If you want to become a professional, especially in the tough online scene (over 25NL at least) downswings of up to 100BI that can last for months is not that uncommon. I'm not saying it happens to every winning player often. But if you play long enough it will happen.

And if you are unlucky it can happen in the beginning before you have time to build a real bankroll as it did for you.

Yeah you are completely right, I know these kind of things can happen, normally I don't really care because it's the long run we're aiming for, but the amount of such very rare situations in such a small period of time, makes it sometimes difficult for me to keep my calm. Makes me feel a bit better though to know it happens to all of us.

 

[CRRRRI7]

i would rather be card dead then swinging down with good hands. Swing come and go just have to manage. Yesterday was just hell for me. For some reason i don't get aces very often. Got them four times yesterday and lost three with two allin pre flop. Two of the times i ended up flopping houses then getting pushed all in. Very last hand with the last of my roll was second hand of the night of aces back to back.First aces i pushed and just got blinds. Second aces Pushed whole buy in on a min raise and he called with sevens. Flop was k,7,7. Quads again against my aces in less than 200 hands.

You have to decide if your just the most unlucky guy or what.

Ill be honest i win bit more than i loose online. But in last 4 years i can honestly say i have never had a heater(upswing) online. Last one i do remember was when party poker was legal here. This isn't to say i didn't have good sessions. I find live play to be softer and more lucrative, Much more lucrative.

good luck

Thanks for the feedback! At what limits are you playing if I may ask?

 

[bigpappa325]

Thanks for the feedback! At what limits are you playing if I may ask?

I started this account to start from nothing(no deposit) and have 1000. Was wanting to give myself a year. My biggest issue is br management.

Im cash player that really should stay cash but i love the tourneys. The beats i speak of above happen on the cash tables. I normal don't go all in pre flop so to get me you got to get lucky. Everyone looses to coolers and beats but its the bad beats that kill me. I play live poker at 15/30 800 buy in every Saturday. I do well and should of moved up but im comfortable.
Online on my other accounts i play 1/2 to 2/4. Since this account is a from scratch scenario its much harder so playing .10/.25 mostly.
Go to tourneys and loose most of it. This is mostly because not following br management. Loose about 100 then go back to cash tables get it back up and do it all over again. Back and forth for days until the great hand warrants an all in because its the nuts until river changes to bigger nuts.

Anyways all this to say im playing at .10/.25 mostly.

 

[eetenor]

So you would advise me to mix up my betting strategy? Sometimes small bets with big hands and big bets with small hands?

I'll try that! Thanks for the advice!

Thank U 4 Responding.

That is one way you might change your betting strategy.

The key is to learn to know why we are picking our bet sizes. My recommendation is to study bet sizing to learn why and when we make bet sizing adjustments.

We bet to get the most value out of a range of hands not specific maybe they have x hands.
There are situations where a small bet or medium bet will not widen the villains calling range in those spots we over bet to get max value from the few hands that will call.
The key is not to know the sizing but to know the situation for the sizing. It is that that I am suggesting you study.

Example

So in the paired board 4 flush hand where you lost to JJ the river bet sizing indicates your made hands are very strong. On that board your bet size seems to be saying I have a K high flush or better. Which forces our villain to have A high flushes or better to call which is way 2 narrow a range to try to get value from.

That sizing vs a decent player might get the third nut flush to fold as well as any scared baby flushes. So we could size our bet such that all flushes might make a call or had the J not come we would also want that over pair to call if we could get them to. When we bet big on turn and river we also force our villain to abandon any thoughts of bluffing. Inducing bluffs is very profitable and it protects our weaker hands when we check rivers.

These are some of the things we need to learn about to understand how to properly use bet sizing. The why and the when.

Hope this helps