Holding Pocket Pair in BB - Facing EP Shove

[theANMATOR]

I've faced this situation quite a lot lately and I'd like to get others opinions on it.

In tournament play - after late registration has closed, before money bubble starts to loom.

Hero has average or above average stack. Approximately 45-50bb. Hero has three times less chip than chip leader but within the top 40-65 on chip leader board.

Villain has 15-19bb in EP/UTG/UTG+1

Villain shoves from EP - folds around to Hero in BB holding marginal pocket pair
9's T's J's.

I often make this call and lose to pocket Qs, Ks, or Broadways K/Q, A/J, K/T, that end up hitting no less than a pair on the run-out.

Since I do not use a stat tracker I'd estimate I loose roughly 70% of these EP small stack shoves when calling with these specific pocket pairs. The only time I ever win is when I hit a set on the board.

I'm playing to win and make final table with these calls - not merely to min-cash, but it seems from the results - it's not a good call to make. What do you guys think/know?


Would it be a better call in this situation with Broadway cards that can potentially block those EP moderately short stack shoves? K/Q, K/J, Q/J, A/Q.

 

[kiski]

Why are you giving a call to an early position player with these cards? Look at the aggression factor and if high, call all in.

 

[theANMATOR]

Why are you giving a call to an early position player with these cards? Look at the aggression factor and if high, call all in.

As I stated previously - I make this call because I'm playing to win - not min cash.

You may have missed that I do not use a stat tracker in the original post, so I gauge aggression factor on previous encounters with the players - I don't rely on a stat tracker to tell me an aggression factor.


What about an unknown player? What do you do without the stat tracker telling you the aggression factor?


I'll just go ahead and do some calculations vs EP shoves with middle pocket pair. Thanks for the reply

 

[nameless1537]

If it’s about playing to win, I’d always rather do it as an aggressor, and not on a preflop all-in call. If you jam, you have two ways to win a hand - opponent fold or having the better hand. If you call, you can only win by having the better hand. To me, playing to win is to play more aggressively, not passively. Personally, I would jam all-in preflop on +EV hand, but to call, I would only do it with pocket AA or KK. Could expand range is pre flop aggressor has been playing super loose or has a low M that requires him to jam pre-flop.

 

[Therminator]

For me personally, I've played a lot on Bovada where everyone was anonymous, so when it comes to reading players it's always been a game of attrition while I figure out everyone's habits. If the early play has shown that they're aggressive with ok hands, I'd go all in (basically bit of a coin flip so beware). With pocket pairs though, all it takes is for the opponent to pair up one of their cards and your done for so calling will be a very big risk. In addition you also have to take in account of a potential straight. So if the player isn't the type to be super aggressive then I'd just fold.

 

[Veritas]

I make those calls dependent on their range.
If he has tight stats (<5-10% PFR) I fold.
If he has LAG stats, I call with 99-JJ.


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