General Strategy: Near the bubble when everyone is kinda short

[Jacki Burkhart]

Its worth noting that just because its live the mathematics of the game do not change

This is true of course; but what DOES change in live is the players calling ranges.

So far I don't have enough data to prove what I'm about to say but my impression is that online players will call shoves with some weaker hands than live players will; so shoving has more inherent value online. When I shove AQ with about 10-15bbs live I never get calls from hands like AJ or KQ or 55 even in the blinds. I do get some of these calls online.

Conversely, when I open raise online I frequently get light 3bet all ins that I can snap off. I get few of those live. Usually live I get folds or I get flatted and often the caller plays straightforwardly post flop.

I could definitely see that if I'm at a tougher table the merit of shoving increases where if I'm at a soft table the merit of raising increases.

 

[rancidcarp]

this stage is not my favorite but it is basically the step before the bubble,

i think this is the moment when the player needs to be more selective not only with the hands but also the bet placed and the opponent to be faced,

there are a lot of things to consider, but basically the rule when opening a hand is that it is good enough to push it, in most cases,

for instance, consider the opponents on the left side, if they are basically passive or too tight, then loosening will be positive but if the players are the kind that flats any bet or defend blinds, and basically they are willing to call any cbet, then the decisions postflop are difficult when the hand fails the flop, because at this stage is hard to lose any chips,

every table is different, every moment has its own variables to consider so there is not a detailed strategy,

and again i commented 2 or 3 of the hands posted before and it went like ¨fold preflop¨ or something, but when is fold there is no much that can be done to change this unless going gamble,

well maybe i´m a little bias here considering i am not comfortable with my postflop game!

finally, the word ¨frustration¨ is like using the opposite of ¨patience¨, and it is because this stage of the mtt seems to last years and this situation leads some players to make mistakes,

A very good logical answer here.

 

[duggs]

This is true of course; but what DOES change in live is the players calling ranges.

So far I don't have enough data to prove what I'm about to say but my impression is that online players will call shoves with some weaker hands than live players will; so shoving has more inherent value online. When I shove AQ with about 10-15bbs live I never get calls from hands like AJ or KQ or 55 even in the blinds. I do get some of these calls online.

Conversely, when I open raise online I frequently get light 3bet all ins that I can snap off. I get few of those live. Usually live I get folds or I get flatted and often the caller plays straightforwardly post flop.

I could definitely see that if I'm at a tougher table the merit of shoving increases where if I'm at a soft table the merit of raising increases.

this is a bit misleading tho, because people calling narrower means we should shove wider, e.g. its perfectly fine in weak fields to shove any two cards on the button with 8bb. not so v good calling ranges etc etc etc. i get that you might want to both have a shoving range and an exploitive r/c range. its just that the hands you are raising are hands that would fall squarely in my shoving range.

The problem with using sng is that ICM has a real and meaningful effect on your ROI so its a bit misleading to use them as the more conservative strategy will often lead to less eliminations, where in a tournament this concern isn't as large.

 

[duggs]

sorry meant to quote 2nd post

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

...I've found that regular speed SnGs result in that particular stack situation when everyone has about 22-25bbs when there are 4 or 5 people left..,

Typo I meant to say 12-25bbs not 22-25bbs

And yes...I aware that due to ICM as well as a higher % of the field getting paid (and as a result less reward for first place) the situations will NOT play out the same. Generally in MTTs people will be more willing to gamble since the road to first place is long and tedious and the reward is very high.

It will not be a perfect experiment. But if I were to try and go this with MTTs it could take me years to find enough situations where the stack sizes are in that zone around the bubble.

I'm mostly just trying to get my "sea legs" with the new strategy while gathering some data in the process.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

My experiment (while helpful in giving me experience with comfortably playing both strategies) is really hard to analyze the data because table conditions can be so different. Both strategies are profiting although the open shoving strategy has higher variance. I'm abandoning the experiment to answer this question and resorting to plain old math. I'll show my math below. Or feel free to skip to the 2 sentence summary at the bottom!


Assumptions: We have to make some assumptions for this to work and I'll keep all the assumptions constant.

*UTG our range is 99,ATo,KQo (medium strength hands)
*blinds and antes = 2.8bb
*when raising, we're choosing a 2.5bb raise
*33% of the time we win the blinds when raising
*67% of the time we get 1 caller or shover
*we will Cbet the flop 100% of the time 4bb
*opponent will play straightforwardly and only call our Cbet when they hit the board or a strong draw (40%)
*The hand is considered over, or lost the times our Cbet is called
*when shoving we only get called by JJ+ and AK (3% range) which will happen 13% of the time at a full table

OK given the above parameters here is the math for raising:

win 2.8bb x0.33= +0.92bb

get 1 flatter
2.8+2.5+2.5= 7.8bb pot
Cbet 4bb and get called 40% we lose 6.5bbx0.4= -2.6bb
Cbet 4bb and win 60% we win 5.3bb x 0.6 = +3.18

0.92 +3.18 -2.6= +1.50bb for raising and Cbetting. This figure will be the same regardless of our stack size assuming we have at least 13bb.

So now all we have to do is find the set of stack sizes and assumptions for shoving and discern which stack sizes do better than 1.50bb for shoving and which do worse than 1.5bb for shoving. Don't worry, I've done the math below:

13bb open shove from early position with 99, AT, KQ
87% you win blinds 2.8bb x 0.87 = +2.44bbs
13% you get called by JJ+, AK and have an equity of 26% vs that range.

13+2.8=15.8bb x 0.26= +4.1bb when you're called and win
13 x 0.74= -9.62bb w hen you're called and lose

-9.62 + 4.1bb= -5.52bb x 0.13= -0.72bb.

+2.44bb - 0.72 = +1.72bb for the shove as a whole.

This is higher than the expected 1.50bb for raising and Cbetting, so shoving 13bb is better.

Next up: 14bb same parameters

you'll win the 2.8 blinds 87%= +2.44bb
when called and win it's 16.8bb x 0.26= +4.37
when called and lose it's 14bb x 0.74= -10.36

-10.36 +4.37= -5.99 x 0.13= -0.78bb when called. +2.44 -0.78= +1.66bb for the shove as a whole.

This is higher than the +1.50bb expected value from raising and Cbetting so shoving 14bb is better.

Now 15bb using same parameters:
87% you win the +2.8bb 2.8x.87=+2.44bb
when called and win its 17.8bb x 0.26= +4.63bb
when called and lose it's 15bb x 0.74 = -11.1

-11.1 +4.63= -6.47 x 0.13= -0.84bb when called
+2.44 -0.84= +1.60bb for the shove as a whole. This is higher than the +1.50bb expected value from raising and Cbetting so open shoving 15bb is better.

Now 16bb using the same parameters:
87% you win the 2.8bb = +2.44bb
when called and win it's 18.8bbx 0.26 = +4.88bb
when called and lose it's 16bb x 0.74 = -11.84
-11.84 + 4.88 = -6.96bb x 0.13 = -0.90bb when called

+2.44bb - 0.90 = +1.54bbs for the shove as a whole. This is slightly higher than the 1.50bb EV from raising and Cbetting so open shoving 16bb is slightly better.

And finally a 17bb stack using the same parameters
87% win 2.8bb = +2.44
when called and win it's 19.8 x 0.26 = +5.14
when called and lose it's 17 x 0.74 = -12.58
-12.58 + 5.14 = -7.44 x 0.13 = -0.96bb when called

+2.44bb - 0.96= +1.48bb from shove as a whole
This is slightly worse than the +1.50 EV from raising and Cbetting so raising is slightly better.

SUMMARY: In case you didn't want to read all that or check my math somewhere between a 16 and 17bb stack is where the scale slightly tips from shoving to raising given these parameters. Or in other words, Duggs was exactly correct. The changer of minds strikes again! (and WiZZiM and HooDooKoo and everyone else too!)

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

while somewhere between 16-17 bb is where the scales tip given those examples this is obviously heavily dependent on table conditions.

For instance if your table only folds to a 2.5bb raise 10% of the time, then jamming will be better for stack sizes even higher than 17bbs. if your table folds to a 2.5bb raise 50% of the time then raising will be better even lower than 16bbs.

If your table plays extremely straightforwardly post flop then raising has more value. If your table is full of tricky aggressive post flop players, or players who like to 3bet jam with a wide range then just open shoving will be better.

If your table folds to a 2.5bb raise 60% of the time AND plays straightforwardly post flop then I see no reason to take such a high variance line when you can easily just keep running them over with small raises. Also, at this type of table you can be pretty confident in folding to their 3bet jams because they're on a tighter range and you'd rather stay alive to keep bullying them with much less risk.

However, we aren't usually so lucky to be at these kinds of tables but they sometimes do exist around the bubble. So barring unusual table conditions Duggs and WiZZim (and many others) are totally correct.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

Obviously table dynamics have a lot to do with it.

IMO a stack lower than 20bb's is limited as far as options.

I think the idea to make a standard raise instead of shoving with that stack size is somewhat influenced by fear of bubbling. Other players could use this against you and 3bet with a wider range. I've found that being more aggressive around the bubble is a good strategy to gain chips for after the bubble bursts to go for the win. There are lots of variables that could/should make a difference in whether you shove or standard raise. I think position would be the biggest one. If I am UTG with AKs with a 17bb stack I'd most likely just standard raise depending on reads etc. But if I am on the button with the same hand I'd probably shove because my opponents might think a steal is more possible from this position and I'd like to maximize my fold equity in that spot.

 

[TheCol]

When your that close to the money you really need to limit your hand selection to nothing but premium hands I prefer pocket 9's or better. I tend to shy away from AJ AQ AK because they are not a made hand. If you do have to push I recommend a made hand instead of AK AQ.

 

[atlantafalcons0]

When your that close to the money you really need to limit your hand selection to nothing but premium hands I prefer pocket 9's or better. I tend to shy away from AJ AQ AK because they are not a made hand. If you do have to push I recommend a made hand instead of AK AQ.

This is a good way to micro cash but sadly you'll never win the tournament with this strategy.

 

[Dlattanzio]

http://www.pokernews.com/strategy/weighing-options-world-series-of-poker-bubble-20856.htm

Here is a nice article about that.