I am wondering this this a +EV fold with AA.

So back story is, I am 2 away from ITM super short stack 2BB left. 65 players and 63 is in the money.

Cutoff raise 2.5 BB
Button calls 2.5 BB
I am in the SB with 2BB behind, and blind in for .5BB
Big Blind is blind in with .2BB

I feel like if I just fold I have a 95% chance I will make it to the money. If I call and win I will have 1.5X the starting chip of when I brought it. But the chance of winning with AA is 70%.

So I end up busting out after calling, but manage to squeeze into the money at 63.

Originally Posted by blix177

I am wondering this this a +EV fold with AA.

So back story is, I am 2 away from ITM super short stack 2BB left. 65 players and 63 is in the money.

Cutoff raise 2.5 BB
Button calls 2.5 BB
I am in the SB with 2BB behind, and blind in for .5BB
Big Blind is blind in with .2BB

I feel like if I just fold I have a 95% chance I will make it to the money. If I call and win I will have 1.5X the starting chip of when I brought it. But the chance of winning with AA is 70%.

So I end up busting out after calling, but manage to squeeze into the money at 63.

Thank U 4 Posting.

The result answered your question. You were all-in with a chance to triple up and you still made the money. How could folding be +ev compared to that outcome?

Our number one goal is winning the tournament.

These questions about AA are not where we should be focusing our time. What you need to be working on is how do I not get down to 3 BB. You need to build your stack or bust out way sooner than this. It does happen that we were trying to build our stack and ended up in this spot. When that happens the AA is a no thinking necessary call.

Cashing only becomes relevant when it is a 50-50 decision on how to play a hand on the bubble. AA is never a 50-50 decision. AK AQ QQ JJ 1010 could be but not AA, KK could be but not often?

So to be clear 50-50 decisions happen when you have 50% equity or < and the pot is 1-1. Not when you have 50% equity or > and the pot is paying 2-1 or >

That you lost does not matter. We do not play to win hands we play to make the best choices. The math says the best choice here is to call every time. So that is what we do.


Hope this helps

95% certain to make the money, depending on how much prize money is a stake, IMO folding is the correct decision.
If somebody told you that there was a 95% chance of winning if you did not bet, you would be wrong to bet.
Even if you won, as a 5% chance the double up probably still leaves you extremely short stacked.

In general it is only correct to fold AA in a satellite tournament when you are almost sure you get in the money by not playing any more hands (often on or near the bubble).

I guess you can make an argument that you can fold AA if you are short stack and on the bubble if the money means A LOT to you.

But you should not look at normal tournament that you have the bankroll for in isolation. It is one tournament after each other and you should always take an +EV line.

So I would NEVER fold AA in a normal tournament with a prize structure where you just mini-cash if you get in the money.

IMO the only way this could be +ev as described is if you were playing a satellite. I have no problem to bust out with AA or KK on the bubble here in a regular format tournament. Queens is a crying call and AK/Jacks I will lay down sometimes.

Snap call for me. I rather call and lose than fold and not make the money anyway.

In the past I would not give up but depending on the situation I am already giving up, 90% of the hands I will fearlessly because if I win I raise a lot of chips for the rest of the tournament, which weighs is because it is in the tournament bubble and is never good to leave the tournament in the bubble

I play all in alot, Id go for it

It might be +EV to fold and min-cash, but it is even more +EV to call, triple up, and win the tournament.

It would be really interessting to know how you ended up with such a short stack. Maybe you made already a few critical mistakes before.

Originally Posted by blix177

I feel like if I just fold I have a 95% chance I will make it to the money. If I call and win I will have 1.5X the starting chip of when I brought it. But the chance of winning with AA is 70%.

Originally Posted by eetenor

Our number one goal is winning the tournament.

That you lost does not matter. We do not play to win hands we play to make the best choices. The math says the best choice here is to call every time. So that is what we do.

I think eetenor gives the perfect answer.
min-cashing in tournaments is kinda worthless. if you have ~20% ITM% and mincash gives you About 1.5x-2x the buy-in, you are still a losing Player.


so unless you have won a ticket to a 100$+ Tournament and the 200$ mincash would mean a lot to you, I would NEVER fold AA in this spot. it's the best spot to come back in the Tournament and get a deeper run.
and like eetenor said, we Play to win the first Price, not the min-cash

Originally Posted by okeedokalee

95% certain to make the money, depending on how much prize money is a stake, IMO folding is the correct decision.
If somebody told you that there was a 95% chance of winning if you did not bet, you would be wrong to bet.
Even if you won, as a 5% chance the double up probably still leaves you extremely short stacked.

you have to consider that Winning the min-cash is not Winning Money in the Long term.
once you figure out how worthless it is and start taking more risks on the bubble, you will be able to get deeper runs.

Originally Posted by pentazepam

In general it is only correct to fold AA in a satellite tournament when you are almost sure you get in the money by not playing any more hands (often on or near the bubble).

I guess you can make an argument that you can fold AA if you are short stack and on the bubble if the money means A LOT to you.

But you should not look at normal tournament that you have the bankroll for in isolation. It is one tournament after each other and you should always take an +EV line.

So I would NEVER fold AA in a normal tournament with a prize structure where you just mini-cash if you get in the money.

sums it up very well

As others have said already, its not correct to fold your way to the money at the cost of losing most of your chips, unless you are playing a satellite. So not only is AA a clear call here, but so is most other hands. You already have 25% of your stack in the middle, there is an ante to fight for as well, and the majority of the payout in at the top. So getting AA here is literally a gift, and if you happen to be the bubble buy, just sucks to be you.

The day I fold AA I quit poker. If you fold the best hand wtf

the only time to ever fold AA preflop is if you are chipleader on a satellite or DoN bubble

Originally Posted by blix177

I am wondering this this a +EV fold with AA.

So back story is, I am 2 away from ITM super short stack 2BB left. 65 players and 63 is in the money.

Cutoff raise 2.5 BB
Button calls 2.5 BB
I am in the SB with 2BB behind, and blind in for .5BB
Big Blind is blind in with .2BB

I feel like if I just fold I have a 95% chance I will make it to the money. If I call and win I will have 1.5X the starting chip of when I brought it. But the chance of winning with AA is 70%.

So I end up busting out after calling, but manage to squeeze into the money at 63.

Did you heard of a place named Longyearbyen? The strange thing about that place is that you can't die there. People die where they live, that is "usual". But when you are not allowed to die there, that is "unusual". There must be some "good reason" for this unusual behavior. And the good reason is that most of the time atmospheric temperature remains below freezing point. And the bodies buried there just don't decompose leaving germs and viruses locked in the body which would cause danger for the community.

Coming to poker, we all play aggressively with AA pre-flop, that is "usual". But if we fold AA pre-flop, that would be "unusual". And for this unusual attitude there must be some very "good reason".

Now it is up to you to decide what good reasoning you can find to justify AA pre-flop fold.

Originally Posted by RadDad101213

the only time to ever fold AA preflop is if you are chipleader on a satellite or DoN bubble

Even on a DoN bubble it would have to be a situation, where you are the second largest stack, and the largest stack has shipped all in. If you have the all-in player covered, you should always call with AA, and even if he have you covered, you should probably still call, if stacks are around equal, because then you cant rely on simply folding your way to the money.

Originally Posted by Veritas

It would be really interessting to know how you ended up with such a short stack. Maybe you made already a few critical mistakes before.





I think eetenor gives the perfect answer.
min-cashing in tournaments is kinda worthless. if you have ~20% ITM% and mincash gives you About 1.5x-2x the buy-in, you are still a losing Player.


so unless you have won a ticket to a 100$+ Tournament and the 200$ mincash would mean a lot to you, I would NEVER fold AA in this spot. it's the best spot to come back in the Tournament and get a deeper run.
and like eetenor said, we Play to win the first Price, not the min-cash




you have to consider that Winning the min-cash is not Winning Money in the Long term.
once you figure out how worthless it is and start taking more risks on the bubble, you will be able to get deeper runs.



sums it up very well

How I end up being so short stack. I usually enter the MTT very late. So my starting stack range between 2BB-12BB depending on which MTT I enter. 2BB (ARC freerolls)

Usually I just go all in preflop if I am first to act with a good hand. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, I probably lost the hands before hence I am in the life and death stage. I have ended up in such spots when almost every hand are rags and there are preflop raisers.

You can only fold this in 2 situations.

1.) Satellite and we are 1-2 away from winning a seat.
2.) You have no more money, or you are playing a more significant event where you satted in. Just making ITM could be a substantial amount of money compared to what you are used to / what your BR is.

That would be so freaking hard to do!! But I understand it could be right...

Originally Posted by pentazepam

In general it is only correct to fold AA in a satellite tournament when you are almost sure you get in the money by not playing any more hands (often on or near the bubble).

I guess you can make an argument that you can fold AA if you are short stack and on the bubble if the money means A LOT to you.

But you should not look at normal tournament that you have the bankroll for in isolation. It is one tournament after each other and you should always take an +EV line.

So I would NEVER fold AA in a normal tournament with a prize structure where you just mini-cash if you get in the money.

Originally Posted by sibird

Did you heard of a place named Longyearbyen? The strange thing about that place is that you can't die there. People die where they live, that is "usual". But when you are not allowed to die there, that is "unusual". There must be some "good reason" for this unusual behavior. And the good reason is that most of the time atmospheric temperature remains below freezing point. And the bodies buried there just don't decompose leaving germs and viruses locked in the body which would cause danger for the community.

Coming to poker, we all play aggressively with AA pre-flop, that is "usual". But if we fold AA pre-flop, that would be "unusual". And for this unusual attitude there must be some very "good reason".

Now it is up to you to decide what good reasoning you can find to justify AA pre-flop fold.

Thank U 4 Responding.

Love the odd facts about illegal dying.

Here I fold AA
https://www.twitch.tv/superbusboy/cl...ecreamPlanking


A few minutes later I fold into a Step 2 Venom ticket (satellite)
https://www.twitch.tv/superbusboy/clip/JazzyArtisticAdminPanicBasket

For me the AA are the best , as well as the best tournament in the world, do not throw it away sorry but that is the way it is.!!!

I still don't 100% buy going all in with AA is always the best route. Lets say each chip is worth 1 cents. Your buy in was for $100 for 10,000 chips. If you fold you get $200 because it is on the bubble with 300 players, but your tournament life is over because you are left with 1000 chips.

If you go all in you have a 75% chance of triple your chips to 8000 or $80 worth of chips.

So folding = $200 = 1000 chips.
Calling = $60 = 70% * 8000 chips

Am I missing something here?

Originally Posted by blix177

I still don't 100% buy going all in with AA is always the best route. Lets say each chip is worth 1 cents. Your buy in was for $100 for 10,000 chips. If you fold you get $200 because it is on the bubble with 300 players, but your tournament life is over because you are left with 1000 chips.

If you go all in you have a 75% chance of triple your chips to 8000 or $80 worth of chips.

So folding = $200 = 1000 chips.
Calling = $60 = 70% * 8000 chips

Am I missing something here?

I think you are missing the potential value of winning the tournament

Originally Posted by BUSB0Y

I think you are missing the potential value of winning the tournament

But each move should be done base on the highest EV of that move right? Even winning the hand your odds of making it to the final table is abysmally small given winning the hand you are still 1/4 the average stack sizes.

Originally Posted by blix177

But each move should be done base on the highest EV of that move right? Even winning the hand your odds of making it to the final table is abysmally small given winning the hand you are still 1/4 the average stack sizes.

Maybe as the buyin grows larger, the value of min-cash means more. But you can't deny the implied odds of winning, or can you? I don't know man I really am just here to learn as well

No problem in calling, I think as played is the correct answer to this question.

1) You have already invested 1/2 the amount to call since you are in the SB position.
2) A 4-way pot, Pot odds is simply something you can't resist calling with Aces
3) There's still no guarantee you will be ITM if you fold this hand.

In my opinion, you better quit poker if you fold this hand.
The moment you sit on a table, your mindset is 'To Win' instead of 'Not to lose'

You have called the absolute right decision, just that variance got the better of you.
Keep trying.

Originally Posted by BUSB0Y

Here I fold AA
https://www.twitch.tv/superbusboy/clip/SlickMiniatureIcecreamPlanking

There's nothing to be proud of folding that hand of yours. I usually sit out whenever i reach the required ITM chip amount.
So, you Cannot compare a 40 seats gtd sat when you are already ITM as long as you don't participate any hand.
There's nothing to fight for, the prize being 1st and 40th is the same.
That's a totally different kind of scenario.

I actually laughed out loud watching you say "Here look, no hands, i'm going to fold Aces"....

Originally Posted by YKCaiTLH1314

There's nothing to be proud of folding that hand of yours. I usually sit out whenever i reach the required ITM chip amount.
So, you Cannot compare a 40 seats gtd sat when you are already ITM as long as you don't participate any hand.
There's nothing to fight for, the prize being 1st and 40th is the same.
That's a totally different kind of scenario.

I actually laughed out loud watching you say "Here look, no hands, i'm going to fold Aces"....

The point is OP was incorrect to fold aces as this is the only scenario where it makes sense.

Originally Posted by BUSB0Y

The point is OP was incorrect to fold aces as this is the only scenario where it makes sense.

He called the hand and busted out.
Anyway, thanks for the laugh

Feel free to call. The decision to call is correct. Always start from ev and itm.

Originally Posted by eetenor

Thank U 4 Posting.

The result answered your question. You were all-in with a chance to triple up and you still made the money. How could folding be +ev compared to that outcome?

Our number one goal is winning the tournament.

These questions about AA are not where we should be focusing our time. What you need to be working on is how do I not get down to 3 BB. You need to build your stack or bust out way sooner than this. It does happen that we were trying to build our stack and ended up in this spot. When that happens the AA is a no thinking necessary call.

Cashing only becomes relevant when it is a 50-50 decision on how to play a hand on the bubble. AA is never a 50-50 decision. AK AQ QQ JJ 1010 could be but not AA, KK could be but not often?

So to be clear 50-50 decisions happen when you have 50% equity or < and the pot is 1-1. Not when you have 50% equity or > and the pot is paying 2-1 or >

That you lost does not matter. We do not play to win hands we play to make the best choices. The math says the best choice here is to call every time. So that is what we do.


Hope this helps

I totally agree with you. AA is always a hand you wanna play till end and préflop even more.
Real question here is why you got involved in that weak position. You should improve your building stack strategy cause call with AA is something I'd do Everytime in almost every situation.

I hope it would help.

Good cards mate!!