S
sillymunchie
Visionary
Silver Level
lol its funny, now i only have a little bit of knowledge about "equity" and i know alot about pot odds
The rules everyone is stating here is for a cash game scenario, as long as you have 50% equity it is a call etc etc
but in a MTT its completely different logic, we dont just calculate the pot odds and call for every flip, that would be insane instead we look at risk and reward which is how much equity we have in the pot already, + how much we stand to gain + how bad a loss would affect us
The maths here is two different kinds of maths, lets just say worst case scenario, opponent can do this with a hand like J 10s
the pot odds would say we are a 60% favourate here and so we would make a call and in cash would definately be a call, but in an MTT if you called every all in with AK, knowing they had hands as bad as J 10, then you would lose by the 2nd - 3rd race mathmatically
as a result we should always be looking at the equity we have in a hand against the equity we stand to gain, and if he hasnt got a minimum of half your stack usually making too many calls like this is given us very little gain against a huge loss if we lose
i hope i have understood this correctly and if ssbn could comment, because i could be wrong as i dont 100% understand how equity works, i just believe that is what he is referring to in his maths
The rules everyone is stating here is for a cash game scenario, as long as you have 50% equity it is a call etc etc
but in a MTT its completely different logic, we dont just calculate the pot odds and call for every flip, that would be insane instead we look at risk and reward which is how much equity we have in the pot already, + how much we stand to gain + how bad a loss would affect us
The maths here is two different kinds of maths, lets just say worst case scenario, opponent can do this with a hand like J 10s
the pot odds would say we are a 60% favourate here and so we would make a call and in cash would definately be a call, but in an MTT if you called every all in with AK, knowing they had hands as bad as J 10, then you would lose by the 2nd - 3rd race mathmatically
as a result we should always be looking at the equity we have in a hand against the equity we stand to gain, and if he hasnt got a minimum of half your stack usually making too many calls like this is given us very little gain against a huge loss if we lose
i hope i have understood this correctly and if ssbn could comment, because i could be wrong as i dont 100% understand how equity works, i just believe that is what he is referring to in his maths
S
stefffan1
Rock Star
Platinum Level
I think the rational decision would be a fold...but thinking that you have a pretty good hand , you could consider a call. It's risky , but you know what they say "There would be no game without the risk". This is what makes the game so beautiful.
S
ssbn743
Visionary
Silver Level
This is good, I’m glad there is so much disagreement here because I’d like to make sure that I am doing this right. I’ve never really worked it out like this on paper.
So Duggs, there’s the math, where is it wrong? I have the book right in front of me that tells me to do the math exactly like that. I agree, 89% sounds ridiculous, also we’re both wrong with our pot odds, since we already have $200 in the pot it’s only $1300 for us to call ($1300 / $1500+$200+$100) ($1300/$1800), 13/18, or 72% , 13:5 in favor of the pot.
I would really like to understand this – initially I said call here, just as most did, but then I did the math and said fold. In the time since I think I got some of those numbers screwed up, I had the right numbers in the post but apparently jacked up the calculator. And now, I’m coming up with a ridiculous number, 89%, that can’t be right; can it? But I can’t figure out where it’s wrong; anyone?
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
This is wrong, equity calculations occur in all forms of poker, a purely chip EV calculation (which he has done and I have) is independent of ICM which dictates monetary value in tournaments according to payouts, however, what you refer to is usually called tournament EV, ie the forgone opportunities from gaining/losing chips as a function of our stack size, which is largely qualitative and difficult quantify
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
ssbn you are ignoring the money you put into the pot, that weighs into the pot odds, it should be noted that 1300:1800 is equivalent to 1300/3100 in the same way that 1800:1300 is equivalent to 1800/3100
you are also dividing the equity of each hand by the number of combos, this is wrong.
the correct formula is SUM P(EQ) to determine our equity
where
SUM=summation of all the terms P(EQ)
where P= probability of each hand within the range (hand combos/total combos)
EQ= equity of each hand combination v our hand
you are also dividing the equity of each hand by the number of combos, this is wrong.
the correct formula is SUM P(EQ) to determine our equity
where
SUM=summation of all the terms P(EQ)
where P= probability of each hand within the range (hand combos/total combos)
EQ= equity of each hand combination v our hand
S
sillymunchie
Visionary
Silver Level
no probs
like i said i was trying in my own mind to get an understanding of what it is your looking at, maybe ill have to try and get a hold of this book your referring to, because i always knew there was a concept that i must be missing, and im fairly certain what your saying here could be a huge impact on my own game aswell, as a result i would love to look into this one myself and if i can understand it who knows i might be able to come up with the answer lol
S
sillymunchie
Visionary
Silver Level
ok after relooking at the opponents opening thread,
you have min raised 200, he has shoved 1500 from sb.
so 300 is in the pot, he shoves for 1500 giving us 1800
and so our odds should look like this
we call 1200 to win 3000
which is 6:15 (or 40%)
so pot odds offer 40% cus we only need to win 40% of the time to make this a profitable call
one thing i have noticed and always remembered is you have to remember to add on what your putting into the pot, and it looks like you have forgotten to do this, unless of course im missing something again xD
you have min raised 200, he has shoved 1500 from sb.
so 300 is in the pot, he shoves for 1500 giving us 1800
and so our odds should look like this
we call 1200 to win 3000
which is 6:15 (or 40%)
so pot odds offer 40% cus we only need to win 40% of the time to make this a profitable call
one thing i have noticed and always remembered is you have to remember to add on what your putting into the pot, and it looks like you have forgotten to do this, unless of course im missing something again xD
C
cotta777
Visionary
Silver Level
I would fold holding 3,500 theirs no reason to call it off.
theirs no way im not cashing from 3,500 - you can control your table with ease
but if you lose the toss (which you will half the time - you will lose your dominance and be back in a dog fight
theirs no way im not cashing from 3,500 - you can control your table with ease
but if you lose the toss (which you will half the time - you will lose your dominance and be back in a dog fight
S
sillymunchie
Visionary
Silver Level
i dont understand why your folding though cotta?
yes you can control the table, but how often are you going to fold a dominating hand like this? what if he starts shoving every hand, if the odds are correct to call by not making the call your losing money, everybody is about to go into shove and fold mode, and AK is not the sort of hand i would be folding once your there
remember opponent shoved 15BB, his range should only hold AK - AA - KK, but what if you wait a bit longer say 2 more minutes blinds go up, he now has 7BB with same stack size, are you still folding?
because according to you, no matter what hand you get the risk of going out on the bubble is bad (as it was opponent wasnt taking into consideration UTG position, because he did a "resteal" when opponent wasnt stealing, and if your not stealing the blind then the call is definately the option to go for"
this is the stage of the STTs where players stacks mean hardly anything, you yourself only have 30BB, how often you going to raise fold AK when them blinds go up, early on in STT there is reason to fold this pre, but right now i cant see how you can ever justify it, odds tell you you only have to win 40% of the time to be profitable.
now if you are min raising and folding to a shove from UTG you might aswell start to open fold AK from UTG, because your leaking so many chips by doing this.
then again im a MTT specialist not STT so maybe the same rules dont apply with ICM? i dont know, but as far as equity is concerned which is what this thread is about, were trying to figure out if he had enough equity to fold, or should it have been a call
yes you can control the table, but how often are you going to fold a dominating hand like this? what if he starts shoving every hand, if the odds are correct to call by not making the call your losing money, everybody is about to go into shove and fold mode, and AK is not the sort of hand i would be folding once your there
remember opponent shoved 15BB, his range should only hold AK - AA - KK, but what if you wait a bit longer say 2 more minutes blinds go up, he now has 7BB with same stack size, are you still folding?
because according to you, no matter what hand you get the risk of going out on the bubble is bad (as it was opponent wasnt taking into consideration UTG position, because he did a "resteal" when opponent wasnt stealing, and if your not stealing the blind then the call is definately the option to go for"
this is the stage of the STTs where players stacks mean hardly anything, you yourself only have 30BB, how often you going to raise fold AK when them blinds go up, early on in STT there is reason to fold this pre, but right now i cant see how you can ever justify it, odds tell you you only have to win 40% of the time to be profitable.
now if you are min raising and folding to a shove from UTG you might aswell start to open fold AK from UTG, because your leaking so many chips by doing this.
then again im a MTT specialist not STT so maybe the same rules dont apply with ICM? i dont know, but as far as equity is concerned which is what this thread is about, were trying to figure out if he had enough equity to fold, or should it have been a call
Matt Vaughan
King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
There's so much wrong with this that I'm not sure where to begin... But I'll try.
First, pot odds: most people just learn the trick that we need X% equity to call where X = Call/(Call+Pot), but where this COMES from is an EV equation.
EV(Call) = (Win %)x(Pot-size) - (Lose %)x(Bet-size)
Lose % just = 1 - Win %, since we must either win or lose the hand. Also, to breakeven on the call, EV(call) must be >= 0. So:
EV(Call) = 0 = (W)x(Pot) - (1-W)x(Bet)
Now it's just algebra from here:
0 = WxPot - 1xBet + WxBet
0 = Wx(Pot+Bet) - Bet
Wx(Pot+Bet) = Bet
W = Bet/(Pot+Bet)
Ta-da!!! So that's where you get that handy trick. So in this case, the blinds are 50/100, we make it 200 UTG, and the SB jams 1,500. The BB's 100 is also in the pot. So pot = 200 + 100 + 1,500 = 1,800. We must call 1,300 to win 1,800. Our POT ODDS are 1,800:1,300 or ~1.38:1. This means that for every 1.38 times we lose the pot, we must win 1 time to breakeven. You can think about it like -> if we play this spot 2.38 times, then we must WIN one time, but we can lose the other 1.38. So we must win 1 time out of 2.38. Note this is the exact same equation as above.
1/(1+1.38) = 42% (rounded)
1,300/(1,300 + 1,800) = 42% (rounded)
So our EQUITY against villain's range must be 42% AT LEAST to break even. Onto your equity calculation. This is wrong in all sorts of ways every time you tried to do it, so instead of trying to correct each mistake, I'm just going to walk through the calculation.
Let's start by assuming that you've ranged SB correctly, and he has TT+/AQ+. Namely, he can have TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AQo, AQs, AKo, AKs. If we didn't know our own hole cards, then each pocket pair would have 6 combos, each suited hand would have 4 combos, and each offsuited non-pair hand would have 12 combos. BUT, we have AK, which means we block some combos. For simplicity, I'm not going to worry about suitedness here, since it will only change the equities a little bit. We have about 43% equity against TT, JJ, and QQ, 30% equity against KK, 7% equity against AA, and 72% equity against AQ. For AK, we will win such a small % of the time, and chop such a high percentage, that I will just call our equity 50% against AK combos.
The key to determining equity is a weighted average.
TT - 6 combos
JJ - 6 combos
QQ - 6 combos
KK - 3 combos (we have blockers for everything aside from TT and QQ)
AA - 3 combos
AQ - 12 combos
AK - 9 combos
= 45 combos total
So we can say what % of his range is TT, what % of his range is JJ, etc.
TT -> 6/45 = 0.1333
JJ -> 6/45 = 0.1333
QQ -> 6/45 = 0.1333
KK -> 3/45 = 0.0667
AA -> 3/45 = 0.0667
AQ -> 12/45 = 0.2667
AK -> 9/45 = 0.2
Note that these sum to 1, since this is what his entire range is comprised of.
Now to find our equity, we take our equity against a given hand times the chance that he holds that hand. This is our weighted average.
Total Equity= (% TT)(Eq Vs TT)+(% JJ)(Eq Vs JJ)+(% QQ)(Eq Vs QQ)+(% KK)(Eq Vs KK)+(% AA)(Eq Vs AA)+(% AQ)(Eq Vs AQ)+(% AK)(Eq Vs AK)
Equity = 3x(0.1333)(0.43)+(0.0667)(0.30)+(0.0667)(0.07)+(0.2667)(0.72)+(0.2)(0.50) (note that I just multiplied by 3 to deal with TT-QQ, since the combos and equities vs. those hands are the same)
Equity = 0.1720 + 0.0200 + 0.0047 + 0.1920 + 0.1000
Equity = 0.4887 = 48.87%
We have nearly 49% equity against that range, and need only 42% to make a +chipEV call. But note that we are losing the hand more than half the time. Whether you want to flip is your choice. But also consider that his range is probably much wider than this with a 15bb shove.
S
ssbn743
Visionary
Silver Level
Yes, I know that Duggs! Unless of course 1300:1800 is not an odds expression but is actually a ratio - just saying!
S
ssbn743
Visionary
Silver Level
OK, I see where I went wrong; I mean the many places I went wrong
I still don’t understand pot odds – that may seem like an obviously statement but I understand what each is saying – I get it, I really do – but I’m reading a book on Poker Math right now that says this:
“The idea of pot odds starts with comparing the size of the pot with the size of a bet we must call….So pretend we’re on the flop in a hand, and the pot is $10. It’s the villain turn, and he bets $10. The pot would now be $20 and it’s $10 for us to call. We’d be getting 20:10. We then reduce this to 2:1. We’re getting 2:1 odds on our call.” (“Poker Math That Matters” pg 59, 2010).
I understand the two methods in this post:
X=a/(a+b)
Or
X =a/b
The question is which one is right? I always thought it was x=a/(a+b) too, until I read the book cited above.
X=a/b
In such a case as the books’ example from above, we have to call $10 to win a $20 pot, thus 20:10 becomes 2:1 and converts to 1/3 in fractional form. Therefore to call in this situation we need to win 33% of the time.
X=a/(a+b)
Now if I do the math the other way, then I get $10 to win $30, thus 30:10 which becomes 3:1 which is further represented as 1/4, or 25%.
In our example from the OP this was an all-in pot, meaning no action was pending after our call. Do we use x=a/b in that situation and reserve x=a/(a+b) for situations in which the villain has chips left?
Quite a bit different, so which way is right? If you say x=a/(a+b) then I’m going to cite a published poker author that disagrees; is the book wrong?
S
ssbn743
Visionary
Silver Level
I see, you mean like the direct quote you obviously didn’t read?
"The idea of pot odds starts with comparing the size of the pot with the size of a bet we must call….So pretend we’re on the flop in a hand, and the pot is $10. It’s the villain turn, and he bets $10. The pot would now be $20 and it’s $10 for us to call. We’d be getting 20:10. We then reduce this to 2:1. We’re getting 2:1 odds on our call.” (“Poker Math That Matters” pg 59, 2010).
Matt Vaughan
King of Moody Rants
Bronze Level
Pot odds means: The amount we risk (amount we have to call) to (ratio) the amount we can win (the pot). So yes, if the pot BEFORE the bet is $10, and he bets $10, then the pot is now $20, and we are facing a $10 bet.
We have to call $10 (risk) to (ratio) win $20 (pot). This means we are getting 20:10, or 2:1 ODDS to call. This is not the same as the EQUITY we need. EQUITY is the percentage of the time we will win the pot.
If our ODDS are 2:1, then we need at least 33% EQUITY to make a breakeven call. Why? Because the ODDS we are getting 2:1 dictate this.
BREAKEVEN EQUITY = Bet/(Bet+Pot) = (Right side of ratio)/(Left side of ratio + Right side of ratio) = 1/(2+1) = 1/3 = 33%
But like I said, the breakeven equity equation stems DIRECTLY from a standard EV equation. You are reading a math poker book but you don't seem to be understanding. Imo, go slower, go a chapter at a time, and do practice problems so that you know you are understanding the concepts and can apply them correctly.
We have to call $10 (risk) to (ratio) win $20 (pot). This means we are getting 20:10, or 2:1 ODDS to call. This is not the same as the EQUITY we need. EQUITY is the percentage of the time we will win the pot.
If our ODDS are 2:1, then we need at least 33% EQUITY to make a breakeven call. Why? Because the ODDS we are getting 2:1 dictate this.
BREAKEVEN EQUITY = Bet/(Bet+Pot) = (Right side of ratio)/(Left side of ratio + Right side of ratio) = 1/(2+1) = 1/3 = 33%
But like I said, the breakeven equity equation stems DIRECTLY from a standard EV equation. You are reading a math poker book but you don't seem to be understanding. Imo, go slower, go a chapter at a time, and do practice problems so that you know you are understanding the concepts and can apply them correctly.
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
You still have your pot odds wrong.
The pot here is the blinds 150, plus the min raise of 200, plus his 1500 (1850)
He has called your 200 and raised you 1300.
You must put in 1300 to win a pot of 1850.
The ratio between these numbers is your pot odds and has nothing to do with what you have already put into the pot or the total amount when your 1300 goes in as well.
1850 divided by 1300 is 1.42 (to 1)
You are also not in any danger of elimination as you had 3500 at the start of the hand.As stated before with AK you have 49 % equity against 10 JJ QQ KK AA AK AQ,
Which makes this a clear call.
The pot here is the blinds 150, plus the min raise of 200, plus his 1500 (1850)
He has called your 200 and raised you 1300.
You must put in 1300 to win a pot of 1850.
The ratio between these numbers is your pot odds and has nothing to do with what you have already put into the pot or the total amount when your 1300 goes in as well.
1850 divided by 1300 is 1.42 (to 1)
You are also not in any danger of elimination as you had 3500 at the start of the hand.As stated before with AK you have 49 % equity against 10 JJ QQ KK AA AK AQ,
Which makes this a clear call.
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
except that he is the small blind, which you just counted twice