Equity related question

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Caesura

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9 handed SnG, 6 players left, quite passive game, am chip leader with 3,500.

Dealt AKo
I min raise from UTG and SB shoves all-in 1,500

Is it call or fold?
 
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MIShroomer47

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Probably a fold... i mean you're already chip leader... you've got a lot of hands to play. Yes it would be nice to eliminate another player but save the money... especially since you're not getting good odds on a call... with a min raise invested (im assuming only 200 max invested at that point)... not worth the 1300 to make a call. But without notes on the guy... no reads on any previous plays... you just never know....
 
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doomasiggy

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blinds+antes? how many places paid? BI of the sng?
 
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Caesura

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Sorry,

50/100 blinds, no ante, $1 bi, 3 places paid
 
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doomasiggy

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yeah call. 6 handed he's probably rejamming like 77+/QJs+/KQs+/AJo+/ATs+ here. Plus it's a one dollar comp so he might be jamming 74s for anyone knows.
 
BLACKSTACK

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well being chip leader and with only 3 players ak is a hand i would call an all in, Only way you are calling almost dead is if he has pocket rockets, with lower pairs its still 50/50 and if he has A with lower kicker, Well your in good shape
 
C

Caesura

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He had A7s and flushed the flop.

A couple of hands later he busted my KK with AA and I was out.

Was just wondering with the blinds quite low and being the chip leader whether it was correct.
 
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doomasiggy

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It's fine. He's shoving a lot worse so you're ahead often enough that it's a call.
 
bz54321

bz54321

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You could fold then use the 1500 to shoot a 250 bet at him every time its his big blind.

Fully loaded 6 shooter.....
 
C

Caesura

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Cool, just reading Collin Moshman SnG Strategy and there is an example where he says to fold QQ to an all-in from a player with an equal stack at the bubble. I know it's a different scenario totally but trying to learn ICM better.
 
C

Caesura

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Yes, someone on here recommended it a while back. I've had it a while and it's getting more useful each day.
 
TeUnit

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what is he shoving in that spot? hard to do readless, but why would he shove qq, kk, aa, there?

the 15bb shove screams ace-rag or small pair

call
 
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WiZZiM

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There should be a lot of stuff in CM book about equity. But basically the more chips you have, the less they are worth. So when you have the big stack, the chips you lose hurt you a lot more as it will affect your equity position a lot more than the gain in equity you recieve if you win.


Having said that, this is an easy call. Sounds like it just wasn't meant to be. I've been in situations like that plenty of times, you can't do much about it apart from loading another games and getting on with it.
 
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BluesPlayer

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9 handed SnG, 6 players left, quite passive game, am chip leader with 3,500.

Dealt AKo
I min raise from UTG and SB shoves all-in 1,500

Is it call or fold?

I would make the call
 
zegaum

zegaum

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Many paid. The chance of other pay this all-in SB is great. Ai becomes more lottery.
I think it would be good to keep the chip leader. Other hand, in better positions, come.
 
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ssbn743

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9 handed SnG, 6 players left, quite passive game, am chip leader with 3,500.

Dealt AKo
I min raise from UTG and SB shoves all-in 1,500

Is it call or fold?


Well I would say call without much hesitation, but let’s do the math:

Let’s assume the SB only 3-bet shoves TT+, AQ, and AK (pretty standard I think).

Villain's Range

There are 12 combos that make up AQ
There are 9 combos that make up AK (we have two of those cards).
Then there are 24 combos that make up all pairs TT+ (again, we have two of those cards)

That means we are ahead or dead even with 21 combos of his range. We are behind 24 combos of his range. We could further reprise this number since we really don’t want to call if he has AK and say that we are ahead of 12 combos, even with 9 combos, and behind 24 combos.

The Pot

The pot is $1800 giving us $1500/$1800 or 83% pot odds, or 1:5.

Equity vs. Pieces of His Range

If he has TT we have 42% equity – there are 6 possible TT combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has JJ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible JJ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has QQ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible QQ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has KK we have 30% equity– there are 3 possible KK combinations, giving us .9% equity.
If he has AA we have 7% equity– there are 3 possible AA combinations, giving us .21% equity.
If he has AQ we have 72% equity– there are 12 possible AQ combinations, giving us 8.64% equity.
If he has AK we have 2% equity– there are 9 possible AK combinations, giving us .18% equity.

2.52% + 2.52% + 2.52% +. 9% + .21% + 8.64% + .18% = 17.49%

The Math

Since there are 49 combos that the villain can have we divide 49 into 17.49% (17.49%/49) and come up with 35% equity.

Our opponent is all-in so implied odds are not a factor and I must say that I’m surprised by the results – I said call off the top of my head and I think I was wrong. We have 35% equity against his range and we really must have greater than 83% to make this call and it would be for 42% of our stack. The golden rule is never to be afraid of flipping for less than half your stack but we’re not sure we’re flipping here are we?

Surprisingly (at least to me), this is a fold!
 
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ssbn743

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Sorry I didn’t see the A7s part of the post until after I posted, but…

Let’s add Ax suited into his range here. There are 13 suited ace combos in the deck, we have already accounted for 2 of them with our AQ and AK estimations. That leaves 11 possible Ax suited combos; just for kicks let’s assume he will 3-bet shove with all of them (not too far off target since he did do it with an A7).

That’s adds 11 more combos that we have about 67% equity against. This gives us 7.37% equity versus this range of hands.

Adding our new range into our equation results in the following:

17.49% + 7.37% = 24.86%

There are now 60 hands in his overall range so we take 24.86%/60 and come up with 41% equity – this is still a fold – we need more than double that to make this a +EV call.
 
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Bomysp

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Well I would say call without much hesitation, but let’s do the math:

Let’s assume the SB only 3-bet shoves TT+, AQ, and AK (pretty standard I think).

Villain's Range

There are 12 combos that make up AQ
There are 9 combos that make up AK (we have two of those cards).
Then there are 24 combos that make up all pairs TT+ (again, we have two of those cards)

That means we are ahead or dead even with 21 combos of his range. We are behind 24 combos of his range. We could further reprise this number since we really don’t want to call if he has AK and say that we are ahead of 12 combos, even with 9 combos, and behind 24 combos.

The Pot

The pot is $1800 giving us $1500/$1800 or 83% pot odds, or 1:5.

Equity vs. Pieces of His Range

If he has TT we have 42% equity – there are 6 possible TT combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has JJ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible JJ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has QQ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible QQ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has KK we have 30% equity– there are 3 possible KK combinations, giving us .9% equity.
If he has AA we have 7% equity– there are 3 possible AA combinations, giving us .21% equity.
If he has AQ we have 72% equity– there are 12 possible AQ combinations, giving us 8.64% equity.
If he has AK we have 2% equity– there are 9 possible AK combinations, giving us .18% equity.

2.52% + 2.52% + 2.52% +. 9% + .21% + 8.64% + .18% = 17.49%

The Math

Since there are 49 combos that the villain can have we divide 49 into 17.49% (17.49%/49) and come up with 35% equity.

Our opponent is all-in so implied odds are not a factor and I must say that I’m surprised by the results – I said call off the top of my head and I think I was wrong. We have 35% equity against his range and we really must have greater than 83% to make this call and it would be for 42% of our stack. The golden rule is never to be afraid of flipping for less than half your stack but we’re not sure we’re flipping here are we?

Surprisingly (at least to me), this is a fold!

Nice example of math! I would like to see poker mostly by this side, can you please suggest some sources, how and where can i take a bigger grasp on this subject? thanks a lot.
 
duggs

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Well I would say call without much hesitation, but let’s do the math:

Let’s assume the SB only 3-bet shoves TT+, AQ, and AK (pretty standard I think).

Villain's Range

There are 12 combos that make up AQ
There are 9 combos that make up AK (we have two of those cards).
Then there are 24 combos that make up all pairs TT+ (again, we have two of those cards)

That means we are ahead or dead even with 21 combos of his range. We are behind 24 combos of his range. We could further reprise this number since we really don’t want to call if he has AK and say that we are ahead of 12 combos, even with 9 combos, and behind 24 combos.

The Pot

The pot is $1800 giving us $1500/$1800 or 83% pot odds, or 1:5.

Equity vs. Pieces of His Range

If he has TT we have 42% equity – there are 6 possible TT combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has JJ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible JJ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has QQ we have 42% equity– there are 6 possible QQ combinations, giving us 2.52% equity.
If he has KK we have 30% equity– there are 3 possible KK combinations, giving us .9% equity.
If he has AA we have 7% equity– there are 3 possible AA combinations, giving us .21% equity.
If he has AQ we have 72% equity– there are 12 possible AQ combinations, giving us 8.64% equity.
If he has AK we have 2% equity– there are 9 possible AK combinations, giving us .18% equity.

2.52% + 2.52% + 2.52% +. 9% + .21% + 8.64% + .18% = 17.49%

The Math

Since there are 49 combos that the villain can have we divide 49 into 17.49% (17.49%/49) and come up with 35% equity.

Our opponent is all-in so implied odds are not a factor and I must say that I’m surprised by the results – I said call off the top of my head and I think I was wrong. We have 35% equity against his range and we really must have greater than 83% to make this call and it would be for 42% of our stack. The golden rule is never to be afraid of flipping for less than half your stack but we’re not sure we’re flipping here are we?

Surprisingly (at least to me), this is a fold!

this is wrong somewhere, pumping it into stove gives us 49.1% equity against AQ+ 1010+


Also you never need more than 50% equity to make a call, and the pot odds offered approach a limit of 50%.

for example only AA has more than 83% equity (and only just) KK has 67.4% equity.
 
R

rrph3rtbkr

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hello ssbn743 , i got confused on one thing bro the way u calculate ur pot odds .
pot odds should be 1800 to 1500 i.e 1.2 : 1 as the pot is 1800 and u have to call 1500 to win the pot ,because pot odds is defined as ratio of current size bet to cost of contemplated call i.e how mutch can i win with what stake ..
 
Figaroo2

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The math must be wrong. 1.2 to 1 pots odds with 49% equity AQ+ 10 10+ is a clear call.
$1.02 to win $1.20 every coin flip.
And he shoved with A7 suited, adding that as the bottom of his range takes your equity to 57.5%
 
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ssbn743

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this is wrong somewhere, pumping it into stove gives us 49.1% equity against AQ+ 1010+

Also you never need more than 50% equity to make a call, and the pot odds offered approach a limit of 50%.

for example only AA has more than 83% equity (and only just) KK has 67.4% equity.

I’m not trying to be a dick but if it’s wrong we’re going to have to figure out where!

Step 1 - Make Accurate Assumptions

So the one thing I will say right off the bat is that this is what happens when we over-estimate our opponent’s range. OP didn’t really give us an idea of what kind of player we were dealing with, so with an all-in raise OOP I have to assume the default – which is the stone cold premium range.

hello ssbn743 , i got confused on one thing bro the way u calculate ur pot odds .

pot odds should be 1800 to 1500 i.e 1.2 : 1 as the pot is 1800 and u have to call 1500 to win the pot ,because pot odds is defined as ratio of current size bet to cost of contemplated call i.e how mutch can i win with what stake ..

We’re not thinking about the math right here.

Remember that 2:1 pot odds is 1/3 in fractional form. This is something that is often confused. So 1:1 would be 1/2. Or in this case, we’re getting 5/6 on our money, or 5:1. We’re getting 1 in 5, or damn close to 83% pot odds. That means you need to be good better than 5 times out of 6 to make this +EV.

Remember the first number is the number of times something will not happen and the second number is the times that it will. We will lose 5 times and win 1 time, 5:1. You’ll also notice that adding the two numbers together will result in the denominator from our 5/6 fraction. Using your 1.2:1 example, we can make the fraction 1.2/1, multiply by 10 (10/12), and reduce to 5/6, which will come out to 5:1.

We all should know that there is no hand poker that will be good 5 times out of 6, so this is a fold. Assuming we have calculated our opponent’s range correctly, which we did not in this case.

Sorry I didn’t see the A7s part of the post until after I posted, but…

Let’s add Ax suited into his range here. There are 13 suited ace combos in the deck, we have already accounted for 2 of them with our AQ and AK estimations. That leaves 11 possible Ax suited combos; just for kicks let’s assume he will 3-bet shove with all of them (not too far off target since he did do it with an A7).
That’s adds 11 more combos that we have about 67% equity against. This gives us 7.37% equity versus this range of hands.

Adding our new range into our equation results in the following:

17.49% + 7.37% = 24.86%

There are now 60 hands in his overall range so we take 24.86%/60 and come up with 41% equity – this is still a fold – we need more than double that to make this a +EV call.

Now this is wrong – and I don’t know what I was thinking when I posted it. There are 12 suited ace combos from each suit, not 13. He could not have the same suit as the ace we have and we have already accounted for the AK and AQ suited with the other king on our hand, so…

He could have 0 combos of suit A (because we have the Ace)
He could have 10 combos of suit B (minus 1 combo because we have the King of this suit)
He could have 12 combos of both suits C and D

This means he could have 34 combos of Ax suited. We do still have 67% equity against all hands in the range which will give us 22.78% against that range, 17.49% + 22.78% = 40.27%.

Now there are 83 hands in his range, so 40.27%/83= 48.51% - which is still long ways off from the 83% we need.

Now let’s assume differently:

With an all-in raise OOP we have to assume at least some premium combos are in his range, but let’s say that he could only do this with AA KK or any suited Ace:

AA – 3 combos, we have .21% equity versus this range
KK – 3 combos, we have .9% equity versus this range
AXs – 34 combos, we have 21.44% equity versus this range.

.9% + .21% + 21.44% = 22.55% equity versus his range.

Then we take 22.55% divided by the total number of hands in his range (38)

22.55%/38 = 59% equity - Still an easy fold because of the ratio of the pot! Although I admit I would have called at the table as well, but the math does not support it!

If this is wrong – someone is going to have to tell me where!

Nice example of math! I would like to see poker mostly by this side, can you please suggest some sources, how and where can i take a bigger grasp on this subject? thanks a lot.

Check out “Poker Math That Matters” by Owen Gaines. It’s excellent; I read it many years ago and continue to revisit it. In fact, since everyone is telling my numbers are wrong I pulled it off the shelf again and can’t figure out where I’m wrong. Maybe I am, but I don’t think I am.
 
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duggs

duggs

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I’m not trying to be a dick but if it’s wrong we’re going to have to figure out where!

Step 1 - Make Accurate Assumptions

So the one thing I will say right off the bat is that this is what happens when we over-estimate our opponent’s range. OP didn’t really give us an idea of what kind of player we were dealing with, so with an all-in raise OOP I have to assume the default – which is the stone cold premium range.

first thing that is very wrong is the pot odds, we have to call 1300 (15bb-2bb minraise) into a pot of 3100 (his 15bb+our 15bb+BB) gives us 1300/3100 which means we need 41.9% equity to make a break even call (cEV wise)

It can be clearly shown that the amount of equity we need to call converges to 50%. this is intuitively logical as that is both the minimum needed to value bet, and the limit of the pot odds equation. example, if you shove 1million bb into a pot of 1 and I have exactly 50% equity, I show a profit of .5bb on my call in terms of cEV. therefore it can never be correct to fold with greater than 50% equity in an all in situation. (or any other hot n cold situation)


pokerstoving gives us 49% equity v our opponents range, Im not going to go through working it out manually but your method seems different and definitely incorrect as the answer it gives is extremely off.

The method I would use would be sum ((equity v hand) x P(hand)) to workout our overall equity.

Another non congruent piece of logic you used was assuming an irrational shoving range, its illogical to assume villain would shove A7s but fold AJo or 99
 
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ssbn743

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first thing that is very wrong is the pot odds, we have to call 1300 (15bb-2bb minraise) into a pot of 3100 (his 15bb+our 15bb+BB) gives us 1300/3100 which means we need 41.9% equity to make a break even call (cEV wise)

It can be clearly shown that the amount of equity we need to call converges to 50%. this is intuitively logical as that is both the minimum needed to value bet, and the limit of the pot odds equation. example, if you shove 1million bb into a pot of 1 and I have exactly 50% equity, I show a profit of .5bb on my call in terms of cEV. therefore it can never be correct to fold with greater than 50% equity in an all in situation. (or any other hot n cold situation)

pokerstoving gives us 49% equity v our opponents range, Im not going to go through working it out manually but your method seems different and definitely incorrect as the answer it gives is extremely off.

The method I would use would be sum ((equity v hand) x P(hand)) to workout our overall equity.

Another non congruent piece of logic you used was assuming an irrational shoving range, its illogical to assume villain would shove A7s but fold AJo or 99

So, I am wrong – I did look over the numbers and I’m not sure where I got those numbers – this is a call versus the premium range just as I would have thought and done at the table. However, the following is why:

Figuring the pot odds as such: $1500/ ($1500+$100+$1500) is not correct.

Pot Odds
“The idea of pot odds starts with comparing the size of the pot with the size of a bet we must call….So pretend we’re on the flop in a hand, and the pot is $10. It’s the villain turn, and he bets $10. The pot would now be $20 and it’s $10 for us to call. We’d be getting 20:10. We then reduce this to 2:1. We’re getting 2:1 odds on our call.” (“Poker Math That Matters” pg 59, 2010).

This pot is therefore calculated as $1500/ ($1500+$200+$100), $1500/$1800, 5/6, 83% or 5:1.

Doing the math as you have $1500/ ($1500+$200+$1500) does result in 42% pot equity; but that’s not right.

Implied odds are not a factor here since the villain doesn’t have any chips left; therefore we need a hand that is going to win greater than 83% of the time. Obviously that can't happen pre-flop so we must then consider his range and consider it hopefully wide enough to make this call against a range.

Nonetheless the premium range consisting of TT+, AQ, and AK results in the following odds:

There are 6 combos that make TT
There are 6 combos that make JJ
There are 6 combos that make QQ
There are 3 combos that make KK (We have one of the Kings)
There are 3 combos that make AA (We have one of the Aces)
There are 12 combos that make AQ (We have one of the Aces)
There are 8 combos that make up AK (We have an Ace and a King)

We have 42% equity against TT – There are 6 total hands he can have – (42%/6=7%)
We have 42% equity against JJ – There are 6 total hands he can have – (42%/6= 7%)
We have 42% equity against QQ – There are 6 total hands he can have – (42%/6= 7%)
We have 30% equity against KK – There are 3 total hands he can have – (30%/3=10%)
We have 7% equity against AA– There are 3 total hands he can have – (7%/3=2.333%)
We have 72% equity against AQ – There are 12 total hands he can have – (72%/12=6%)
We have 2% equity against AK – There are 8 total hands he can have – (2%/8=.25%)

There are 44 total combos he can have here in the premium range.

So, adding these numbers together =39.583%. Then we divide by 44, (39.583%/44=89%)

We have 89% against the highest range in the game and need 83% to be +EV – Call, and I’m sorry I got the numbers jacked up. I knew it sounded wrong from the start but couldn’t figure out why.
 
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