Dara O'Kearney (Satellite Specialist) - Ask Me Anything about satellites/knockouts

[scullkr]

Antes in satellites

Hi Dara,

I really enjoyed your book and also your $25k satellite review. I’ve been having a lot of success in the local live satellite scene since.

Just a question about antes and preflop opening ranges in satellites if you don’t mind.

Most live satellites I’ve played have not had antes but an upcoming satellite for a live $10k will introduce them after the first few levels.

Since doing an Upswing MTT course a few years ago I’ve always used a tighter preflop range for the pre ante levels than for the later levels with antes in standard MTTs. This tight range has served me well so far in live satellites with no antes.

Should this concept (ie open wider with antes) also apply to opening ranges in a live satellite when antes are introduced (presumably to a lesser extent if at all) or does stack preservation and ‘tight is right’ still win out?

I would appreciate any insights.

 

[Jrfar005]

Tough Spot in $1700 WSOP Circuit event

Hi I am curious about your thoughts on the following hand....

Hero 150K stack in sb
Villain 100K stack on button. He is a young Pro who is playing aggressive
Blinds 1200-2400 with bb ante

Villain raises 4800 and first to enter pot.
Hero makes it 11k
Villain Calls.

A96 rainbow flop.

Hero checks.
Villain Checks.

Turn Js. Hero bets 17k. Villain calls.

River 4s. Hero checks. Villain bets 30K. Hero folds.

I was very close to calling. Did not love the way I played the hand. Thoughts?

 

[Poker_Mike]

Hi Mike,

My pleasure and thank you for your subsequent questions.

When I say aim for 10th, I don't mean always come 10th, but more a case of don't take any more risks than you feel are necessary to come tenth. Sometimes that will mean coming higher (typically if the bubble goes faster than expected). The two biggest implications for this strategically are:
(1) Far from the bubble, estimate how many chips you need for a seat (the best method is explained in the book) and the nearer you get to that the less risks you should take. Gambling to acquire more chips will certainly make for less stressful bubbles, but will cost you money in the long run
(2) Near the bubble, always have a clear estimate of your chances of a seat (again, the methods to do this are explained in detail in the book), and use this to assess whether its correct to put chips at risk in a pot (compare how much your chances will improve if you win to how much they deteriorate if you lose. In a lot of bubble spots, losing will be 2 or 3 times as bad as winning, so you shouldn't put the chips in unless you believe you're a 2 or 3 to 1 favourite.

The answer to your hypothetical ATo example is "it depends". I can think of examples where it's a clear call, and a clear fold.

Clear call example: 11 left, 10 seats, you and the other short stack are level in chips, miles behind 9/11. So far behind that basically it's almost certain one of you will bubble. Since you're level in chips, that means both of you have roughly a 50% chance of a seat. If he shoves from the small blind, you have a clear call, since if you win your chances go from 50% to 100% (a gain of 50%), and if you lose from 50% to 0% (a loss of 50%). Since the upside and downside are equal you can call any hand which is likely to be ahead of his small blind shoving range, which ATo will be.

Clear fold example: same example, except this time the small blind shoving into you is one of the big stacks who has so many chips he can afford to double you up without harming his own chances. Because of this, you think he's shoving any two cards. Nevertheless, it's still a fold! Why? Well, remember the last seat is basically between you and the other short stack. If you double up in this case, your chances of a seat don't go up to 100%, but only 66.6% (double the other short stack, since you now have double his chips). If you lose, you're out (0% chane of a seat), so in this case you're risking three times as much as you stand to lose, so you need to be a 3 to 1 favorite, or in other words you need 75% equity. Even if you're correct in your assumption the big stack is shoving any two, ATo only has just under 63% equity against any two, so you have a clear fold.

Most other examples will be less clearcut, but by working through the examples in the book you'll be better equipped to make the correct decisions in these spots in game.

Thank you so much Dara. The examples you present really drive home your main idea about risk.

I used some of these ideas recently in a regular daily turbo MTT w no ante. Late in the tournie approaching the bubble my KK got cracked and left me crippled with 8 BB. I looked for a spot here and there to steal blinds and I got a walk once - which all helped.

After several orbits the player next to me asks if I'm going to ever play a hand. I shouldn't have responded but told him that I have 4.5 BB left and even if I double up I am still super short and not a real contender for the final table (and certainly not going to the FT with that attitude). But even with 4.5 BB I thought I could min cash (I was really card dead). He was surprised at the clarity of my risk assessment. And he congratulated me when I did min cash.

It was not a satellite seat but the binary money/no money reward was present and I thought about your advice.

Thanks for helping me gauge risk in a more useful manner. Someday that talent will be worth an extra ~$40k.

Best wishes and good luck !

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hello Dara,
Thank you for being here. You've already answered some of my questions above, I have one more though. Do you play a sat. only when you can't afford a tourney or even if you do ?

Hi,

Sorry for the slow reply, I was busy playing live.

I play satellites irrespective of whether I can afford the tourney or not, although I wouldn't play a satellite to something like the One Drop where the target tournament is far too big for my bankroll.

I think of the satellite as a completely different tournament.

Thanks for your question!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Interesting spot with aces

Also while I'm here, someone sent me a very interesting bubble spot with aces and I wrote up my analysis for PokerNews

https://ca.pokernews.com/strategy/folding-aces-is-there-ever-a-spot-26846.htm

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara,

I really enjoyed your book and also your $25k satellite review. I’ve been having a lot of success in the local live satellite scene since.

Just a question about antes and preflop opening ranges in satellites if you don’t mind.

Most live satellites I’ve played have not had antes but an upcoming satellite for a live $10k will introduce them after the first few levels.

Since doing an Upswing MTT course a few years ago I’ve always used a tighter preflop range for the pre ante levels than for the later levels with antes in standard MTTs. This tight range has served me well so far in live satellites with no antes.

Should this concept (ie open wider with antes) also apply to opening ranges in a live satellite when antes are introduced (presumably to a lesser extent if at all) or does stack preservation and ‘tight is right’ still win out?

I would appreciate any insights.

Excellent question.

Opening ranges are always table specific, but in general you want to be opening a few more hands when there are antes in play. If you stick to your non-ante ranges you'll just find yourself blinding down quicker and not chipping up in the early stages as often. However, you need to be careful what type of additional hands you decide to open when stacks are deep: it's not just a matter of opening more of every type of hand. In early to mid position in particular, you want to start opening hands that flop well: particularly hands that can flop the nuts or nut draws (Axs, JT) rather than hands that are more likely to be dominated (weaker Axo, QJo etc).

In later position, blockers become more important, as you're already opening a wide range including all the hands that flop nuttily, so you're usually hoping everyone just folds pre, or on the flop. So high card hands that block our opponents having strong hands become attractive steal opens.

Thanks for a great question and your kind comments, and I wish you further success in satellites! It's particularly heartening to hear you got value from the $25k HH review video

 

[scullkr]

Excellent question.

Opening ranges are always table specific, but in general you want to be opening a few more hands when there are antes in play. If you stick to your non-ante ranges you'll just find yourself blinding down quicker and not chipping up in the early stages as often. However, you need to be careful what type of additional hands you decide to open when stacks are deep: it's not just a matter of opening more of every type of hand. In early to mid position in particular, you want to start opening hands that flop well: particularly hands that can flop the nuts or nut draws (Axs, JT) rather than hands that are more likely to be dominated (weaker Axo, QJo etc).

In later position, blockers become more important, as you're already opening a wide range including all the hands that flop nuttily, so you're usually hoping everyone just folds pre, or on the flop. So high card hands that block our opponents having strong hands become attractive steal opens.

Thanks for a great question and your kind comments, and I wish you further success in satellites! It's particularly heartening to hear you got value from the $25k HH review video

Thanks for your reply Dara. As usual you offer a deeper insight to the answer than I first imagined!

I would recommend the $25k satellite review for purchase to any interested parties on here- basically over 3 hours of 'Play and Explain' that complement the concepts in the book along with other nuggets of information that arise specific to certain hands played.

I'm not sure if you plan on recording and selling further satellite review videos Dara (I can imagine it is tedious, and doubt it is a valuable use of your time) but if you did there might be further benefits for the audience in seeing 9 handed table play with early position spots, and perhaps a lower buy in target event that might demonstrate some specific exploits in a softer field. I certainly would purchase in any case.

Anyway thanks again.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Thank you so much Dara. The examples you present really drive home your main idea about risk.

I used some of these ideas recently in a regular daily turbo MTT w no ante. Late in the tournie approaching the bubble my KK got cracked and left me crippled with 8 BB. I looked for a spot here and there to steal blinds and I got a walk once - which all helped.

After several orbits the player next to me asks if I'm going to ever play a hand. I shouldn't have responded but told him that I have 4.5 BB left and even if I double up I am still super short and not a real contender for the final table (and certainly not going to the FT with that attitude). But even with 4.5 BB I thought I could min cash (I was really card dead). He was surprised at the clarity of my risk assessment. And he congratulated me when I did min cash.

It was not a satellite seat but the binary money/no money reward was present and I thought about your advice.

Thanks for helping me gauge risk in a more useful manner. Someday that talent will be worth an extra ~$40k.

Best wishes and good luck !

Nice!

It always astonishes me when I see people with short stacks neat the bubble of a normal mtt just flick it in with any two thinking that's what they're supposed to. The shorter your stack is, the more of your equity is in the min cash, yet I regularly see people in big runner field with stacks that even if they double or treble will have less chip equity than the min cash, but that they can almost certainly fold into the money, yet getting all in chasing the double.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Thanks for your reply Dara. As usual you offer a deeper insight to the answer than I first imagined!

I would recommend the $25k satellite review for purchase to any interested parties on here- basically over 3 hours of 'Play and Explain' that complement the concepts in the book along with other nuggets of information that arise specific to certain hands played.

I'm not sure if you plan on recording and selling further satellite review videos Dara (I can imagine it is tedious, and doubt it is a valuable use of your time) but if you did there might be further benefits for the audience in seeing 9 handed table play with early position spots, and perhaps a lower buy in target event that might demonstrate some specific exploits in a softer field. I certainly would purchase in any case.

Anyway thanks again.

Thank you for your kind comments.

I'm particularly glad you found the video useful (still available from dokepokercoaching@gmail.com for $100).

I really like your suggestion of another video focusing on a lower buyin satellite in the early stages: I will put it on my to do list so thank you.

 

[Dara OKearney]

Thank you so much Dara. The examples you present really drive home your main idea about risk.

I used some of these ideas recently in a regular daily turbo MTT w no ante. Late in the tournie approaching the bubble my KK got cracked and left me crippled with 8 BB. I looked for a spot here and there to steal blinds and I got a walk once - which all helped.

After several orbits the player next to me asks if I'm going to ever play a hand. I shouldn't have responded but told him that I have 4.5 BB left and even if I double up I am still super short and not a real contender for the final table (and certainly not going to the FT with that attitude). But even with 4.5 BB I thought I could min cash (I was really card dead). He was surprised at the clarity of my risk assessment. And he congratulated me when I did min cash.

It was not a satellite seat but the binary money/no money reward was present and I thought about your advice.

Thanks for helping me gauge risk in a more useful manner. Someday that talent will be worth an extra ~$40k.

Best wishes and good luck !

That's a great example of understanding risk/reward, the difference between CEv and $Ev and ICM!

Although the book is ostensibly about satellites specifically, it's essentially an ICM book in disguise. It just so happens that satellites present the most extreme examples of the effect of ICM on strategy, but the same principles apply across the board when ICM is a factor

 

[Dara OKearney]

If you want to see the theory of satellites applied in practise, my co-author and I just released a free video of me reviewing his play in a satellite session. We cover lots of topics such as how ICM affects shoving and reshoving ranges, how to adjust when we think our opponents will play imperfectly, and when it's ok to limp in a satellite.

Check it out here

 

[krypto]

Hi there, My question for you would be, for a low-stake mtt game, what would you recommend to a novice poker player whos somewhat aggressive,, also What things can you recommend for a deep run into a mtt, mind set etc ? thanks for your time

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi there, My question for you would be, for a low-stake mtt game, what would you recommend to a novice poker player whos somewhat aggressive,, also What things can you recommend for a deep run into a mtt, mind set etc ? thanks for your time

Hi Krypto,

I'm no mindset expertise but the one piece of advice I always give novices is just concentrate on playing your own game and don't let others intimidate you. More importantly yourself, don't intimidate yourself. I won my first ever big live tournament through a combination of mindless optimism and (mostly) luck.

Good luck!

 

[whiskers77]

Hi Dara,

I have a question, or maybe I just want to weep a bit.

I was kind of lucky in November to satellite into the 888 Live game in London.
Before I was playing some games to Malta live games without success.
Well, I have to say, I am starting really from the lowest buy-ins from the satellite usually and for London it was even a freeroll, that I won.

But now I am a little bit affected by the last experience and would like to repeat it. I am trying to quailify into the Madrid live game at 888. So far without success....
I don't know how to describe it, but somehow it is also tiring playing till 1-2 sateys before the final satey and then dropping out. I think, it is somehow much harder than playing usual games for your mind.
How do you cope with this and how do you keep up the good mood about this?
Do you have any good recommendations for me?
Is there a moment, when you just would say, stop it and just pay the buy-in?

But I also have to say, this game in London was much, much more over my bankroll.
I could buy in for this, but not only with my poker money.
I look forward for your answers. :captain:
Cheers,
Isa

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara,

I have a question, or maybe I just want to weep a bit.

I was kind of lucky in November to satellite into the 888 Live game in London.
Before I was playing some games to Malta live games without success.
Well, I have to say, I am starting really from the lowest buy-ins from the satellite usually and for London it was even a freeroll, that I won.

But now I am a little bit affected by the last experience and would like to repeat it. I am trying to quailify into the Madrid live game at 888. So far without success....
I don't know how to describe it, but somehow it is also tiring playing till 1-2 sateys before the final satey and then dropping out. I think, it is somehow much harder than playing usual games for your mind.
How do you cope with this and how do you keep up the good mood about this?
Do you have any good recommendations for me?
Is there a moment, when you just would say, stop it and just pay the buy-in?

But I also have to say, this game in London was much, much more over my bankroll.
I could buy in for this, but not only with my poker money.
I look forward for your answers. :captain:
Cheers,
Isa

Hi Isa,

Well done in the 888 satellite.

I agree satellites are more mentally challenging than normal tournaments, but it gets easier with experience.

I always see the satellite as an entirely different tournament in its own right rather than a preliminary, so as long as the satellites are good I keep plugging away at them.

Thank you for your questions and good luck in your quest!

 

[BRANCASLIM]

Hi Dara! I have also realized over time that satellite tournaments are very profitable and I am particularly focused on them. I would love to read your book, since I recently uploaded a post about satellite tournaments and a user told me about you . My question about these types of tournaments is how to face the bubble stage or moments before when we arrive short stack, with less than 10bb, if it is better to wait for the rest of the players to take the action or decide to go all in from a good position? I ask this because I have been left out to go all in from the big blind button. THANKS!! GREETINGS FROM ARGENTINA!

 

[Dara OKearney]

Hi Dara! I have also realized over time that satellite tournaments are very profitable and I am particularly focused on them. I would love to read your book, since I recently uploaded a post about satellite tournaments and a user told me about you . My question about these types of tournaments is how to face the bubble stage or moments before when we arrive short stack, with less than 10bb, if it is better to wait for the rest of the players to take the action or decide to go all in from a good position? I ask this because I have been left out to go all in from the big blind button. THANKS!! GREETINGS FROM ARGENTINA!

Hi from ireland

There's no general one fits all answer to your question: it really depends on the other players. If they know what they are doing and therefore won't call you too wide, you're generally best taking matters into your own hands and taking any profitable shove spot. But if they are likely to call wide, you're generally better sitting back and let them call someone else.

While I'm here, I'm happy to announce that the book is now available as an audiobook at the following places:

iTunes: https://books.apple.com/gb/audiobook/poker-satellite-strategy-how-to-qualify-for-main-events/id1498250930…
Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/audiobooks/details/Dara_O_Kearney_Poker_Satellite_Strategy?id=AQAAAEBsaSopVM&gl=GB…

Kobo: https://kobo.com/us/en/audiobook/poker-satellite-strategy-1…

Thanks for your question and I wish you continued success in the satellites!

 

[Andrey007]

That's cool. Thank you for your story!

 

[Debi]

Poker Experts - What are your favorite poker sites?

 

[Nr98]

Hi Dara,

How do you approach Satellites from a Bankroll Management perspective? Normally I just take a 200ish average buy-in rule for MTTs (also would love to hear about your own direct buy-in BRM strategy), but I'm unsure how to incorporate satties into this.

Would be interesting to hear your opinion on this. Feel like satellites are often overlooked in articles on BRM.

Cheers!

 

[nyeesssss]

So when you winn the ticket , do u sell it or play the tournament for wich you've wonn the ticket?
Is the player pool softer compared to regular tournaments?

 

[stylebender72]

satellites are a waste of time I hate all MMTs variance especially if Im playing vs fishes that have no ranges awareness it doesnt remain a game of skill

 

[Willymatt]

Hi Dara, I play a lot of low stake MTT tournaments and I find it difficult sometimes because players risk aversion is almost zero so there are always idiots that go all in from the start with crap hands. And even when you're holding a pat hand, 4 other players jump in and some yoyo wins with a 2 6 for example.

How do you handle your pace in these types of situations? Especially early in the game!

 

[balo]

Hi Dara, do you play at pokerstars?
I want to start playing satellites only and start with a BR of $500 (I will buy your book).

Which MTT's do you prefer to play on Stars in the range from $10 - $100 ? I do not like turbos myself.

 

[LucidLJ]

Promotiing Poker to Younger People and Females

Hi Dara this is Liam Neville the free lance poker dealer. I've had this question in my mind and never got to ask it. So I think poker is a great game, of course people can make money from it, but the social aspect is amazing as well. When I deal at tourneys I see maybe 5% of the field being female players who's ages range from 20s to 70s and some really good players. Same with younger people you might see 5 to 10% at best under the age of 30.
How do we as players and a poker community promote the game to females and also younger from 18 to 30. I feel we are nearly a decade past the poker boom, but if done right we could see another one if we got females and younger players to come in. There is always a stigma with poker being gambling, which is definitely a concern, and also people with addictive personalities could become heavy gamblers. I think the strategy of poker is multi layered and also a lot of thinking involved, the social interaction of playing with someone live compared to online has huge benefits and get more of a live tell and read off players. Would be very interested to hear your thoughts. You are an ambassador and gentleman of the game keep up the great work you and David.