F
fundiver199
Legend
Loyaler
One of the main exploits is soft micro and low stakes games is to overfold on the river. The reason for that is, that most people in these games are not finding enough bluffs. And for that reason we can bet thin for value but overfold, if we get raised. Or we can just fold, if the opponent bomb the river, and we only beat a bluff. Both these ideas are discussed in this video:
However this does not mean, we NEVER want to bluff catch on the river in soft games. So in this post I will share an example of a hand, where I did bluff catch, and another one, where I let it go, and explain my thought process and rationale.
Hand 1 - call when the story makes no sense
This hand is from a 10$ Fifty/50 SnG on Stars, and the opponent was playing VPIP 35 / PFR 19 over 453 hands. These kind of stats fall somewhere in between a fish and a good strong player. Given the sample size he is clearly someone, who play regularly, and he has also learned the value of raising preflop instead on limping. But he still cant help calling or maybe limping with a lot of hands, that should just be folded. VPIP 35 is way to high, and a 16% gap between VPIP and PFR is also way to much. So he is somewhere in between a fish and a good player. Beginning to improve his game, but still have not quite put all the pieces of the puzzle together. Kind of a bad reg in lack of a better term. With this in mind lets look at the hand:
pokerstars, $9.54 + $0.46 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (5 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: 2,180 (27 bb)
MP: 1,765 (22 bb)
MP+1: 1,480 (19 bb)
CO: 2,680 (34 bb)
BU: 1,051 (13 bb)
SB: 1,136 (14 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,708 (21 bb)
Pre-Flop: (155) Hero is BB with 4♣ 5♥
5 players fold, SB raises to 160, Hero calls 80
Already here the opponent is taking a line, which I cant really recommend. With a 14BB stack he should push or fold. When he min-raise, he opens himself up to getting rejammed on, and he also allow me to see a cheap flop in position with any two cards. If he dont want to play push-fold, he should limp all his hands, that he want to play. For me I have an easy call even with a hand as bad as 54o.
Flop: (355) 3♦ 6♦ J♥ (2 players)
SB bets 80, Hero calls 80
I flopped an OESD, so clearly I am not folding here. I could raise, but given that the opponent was very short, I might get jammed on, which would kind of suck. I also got a really good price to draw, so I decided to do just that.
Turn: (515) 5♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Now I improved to third pair, which mean, I moved ahead of random bluffs, that he decided to not continue with. I could put out a small bet for protection, but it would still suck to get jammed on, and I also dont mind letting another card roll off, since I can now improve on a 7, 2 or 5. So I decided to check back.
River: (515) 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets 240, Hero calls 240
Now he bet again, and its pretty clear, I only beat a bluff. However he gave me a little better than 3:1, so I only need to be good 25% of the time. And more importantly what is he actually representing here? If he had a J or better, would he have bet so small on the flop and checked the turn? I dont think so, since 5c was a very safe card, and there were a number of draws, he would want to charge or protect against. So when he check the turn, he pretty much never has a J or better. This means, he is essentially saying, that 3s helped him. But 3s only helped hands with a 3 in them. There are not many of those, that raise preflop, and there are even less, when we see two of them on the board.
Maybe he could be going for thin value with a hand like 77-TT or 6X, that checked the turn for pot control. But often those hands are checking the river again, because 3s could potentially have helped me, and there is not that many hands, they can get paid by. Bad players typically also dont go for enough thin value. Finally my hand also look weak to him, after I checked back the turn. So he might feel, this is a decent spot to bluff. All in all I think, there are enough random bluffs in his range to stick in a call, which I did.
Total pot: 995
Showdown:
SB shows Q♥ 9♥ (a pair of Threes)
(equity - Pre-Flop: 65%, Flop: 53%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)
BB (Hero) shows 4♣ 5♥ (two pair, Fives and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 35%, Flop: 47%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)
BB (Hero) wins 995
Hand 2 - fold when there are no busted draws
This hand is from a 10$ 6-man SnG on PokerStars, and the opponent was playing VPIP 23 / PFR 20 over 908 hands. This player is a SnG regular playing a LAG style. He is not the player, I have the largest amount of hands with, but that is mainly because, 6-max is a relatively new format for me. I consider this player to be a very good regular, who could possibly be a full time professional. At the time of day, this hand was played, there is no action in SnGs higher than 10$, so even the very best players need to move down to find action. With this in mind lets look at the hand:
PokerStars, $9.15 + $0.85 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 5 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: 1,367 (46 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,121 (37 bb)
BU: 1,339 (45 bb)
SB: 2,827 (94 bb)
BB: 2,346 (78 bb)
Pre-Flop: (65) Hero is CO with A♠ K♣
1 fold, Hero raises to 75, 2 players fold, BB calls 45
Not much to say here. Obviously AKo is a standard open in any game from any seat.
Flop: (185) 8♦ K♦ 3♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 74, BB calls 74
Not much to say here either. Obviously TPTK is a standard C-bet for value. Sizing could be debated, but I want to focus mostly on the river decision.
Turn: (333) 8♠ (2 players)
BB bets 113, Hero calls 113
Especially when we have top pair, we need to be aware, that the opponent might have called us on the flop with second or third pair. So the middle card pairing is not great for us. The opponent decides to lead now. As I said, he is a good player, so presumably he understand, that this card is better for his range than mine, and he will be leading with a mix of value and bluffs. I dont think, there is anything to do here other than call. Folding is way to tight especially for this price, and raising would be an overplay.
River: (559) 6♦ (2 players)
BB bets 1,020, CO (Hero) folds
Now the flushdraw completed and he jammed, which was an overbet of nearly 2 times the pot. To call this I need to be good 40% of the time. A player like this is certainly able to pull off a big bluff. But the problem here is, that the only draw just got there, and second pair got there on the turn already. So I only really beat some random stuff here, like maybe AJ or AT with A of diamonds. He is also not applying that much ICM-pressure to me, since we are still 5 players left, and I dont even have the starting stack. And for that reason I think, he is less likely to try to pull off a big bluff, than he would be on the bubble. So I folded, and we will of course never know, if he bluffed me or not.
Summary
I hope these two examples were usefull for people, who are relatively new to the game and struggle with figuring out, when to bluff catch on the river, and when to let it go. I am not really looking for feedback on these hands, since they are just meant as examples. But if someone wants to give feedback anyway, and would have done something different, thats fine as well
However this does not mean, we NEVER want to bluff catch on the river in soft games. So in this post I will share an example of a hand, where I did bluff catch, and another one, where I let it go, and explain my thought process and rationale.
Hand 1 - call when the story makes no sense
This hand is from a 10$ Fifty/50 SnG on Stars, and the opponent was playing VPIP 35 / PFR 19 over 453 hands. These kind of stats fall somewhere in between a fish and a good strong player. Given the sample size he is clearly someone, who play regularly, and he has also learned the value of raising preflop instead on limping. But he still cant help calling or maybe limping with a lot of hands, that should just be folded. VPIP 35 is way to high, and a 16% gap between VPIP and PFR is also way to much. So he is somewhere in between a fish and a good player. Beginning to improve his game, but still have not quite put all the pieces of the puzzle together. Kind of a bad reg in lack of a better term. With this in mind lets look at the hand:
pokerstars, $9.54 + $0.46 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (5 ante) - 7 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: 2,180 (27 bb)
MP: 1,765 (22 bb)
MP+1: 1,480 (19 bb)
CO: 2,680 (34 bb)
BU: 1,051 (13 bb)
SB: 1,136 (14 bb)
BB (Hero): 1,708 (21 bb)
Pre-Flop: (155) Hero is BB with 4♣ 5♥
5 players fold, SB raises to 160, Hero calls 80
Already here the opponent is taking a line, which I cant really recommend. With a 14BB stack he should push or fold. When he min-raise, he opens himself up to getting rejammed on, and he also allow me to see a cheap flop in position with any two cards. If he dont want to play push-fold, he should limp all his hands, that he want to play. For me I have an easy call even with a hand as bad as 54o.
Flop: (355) 3♦ 6♦ J♥ (2 players)
SB bets 80, Hero calls 80
I flopped an OESD, so clearly I am not folding here. I could raise, but given that the opponent was very short, I might get jammed on, which would kind of suck. I also got a really good price to draw, so I decided to do just that.
Turn: (515) 5♣ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Now I improved to third pair, which mean, I moved ahead of random bluffs, that he decided to not continue with. I could put out a small bet for protection, but it would still suck to get jammed on, and I also dont mind letting another card roll off, since I can now improve on a 7, 2 or 5. So I decided to check back.
River: (515) 3♠ (2 players)
SB bets 240, Hero calls 240
Now he bet again, and its pretty clear, I only beat a bluff. However he gave me a little better than 3:1, so I only need to be good 25% of the time. And more importantly what is he actually representing here? If he had a J or better, would he have bet so small on the flop and checked the turn? I dont think so, since 5c was a very safe card, and there were a number of draws, he would want to charge or protect against. So when he check the turn, he pretty much never has a J or better. This means, he is essentially saying, that 3s helped him. But 3s only helped hands with a 3 in them. There are not many of those, that raise preflop, and there are even less, when we see two of them on the board.
Maybe he could be going for thin value with a hand like 77-TT or 6X, that checked the turn for pot control. But often those hands are checking the river again, because 3s could potentially have helped me, and there is not that many hands, they can get paid by. Bad players typically also dont go for enough thin value. Finally my hand also look weak to him, after I checked back the turn. So he might feel, this is a decent spot to bluff. All in all I think, there are enough random bluffs in his range to stick in a call, which I did.
Total pot: 995
Showdown:
SB shows Q♥ 9♥ (a pair of Threes)
(equity - Pre-Flop: 65%, Flop: 53%, Turn: 14%, River: 0%)
BB (Hero) shows 4♣ 5♥ (two pair, Fives and Threes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 35%, Flop: 47%, Turn: 86%, River: 100%)
BB (Hero) wins 995
Hand 2 - fold when there are no busted draws
This hand is from a 10$ 6-man SnG on PokerStars, and the opponent was playing VPIP 23 / PFR 20 over 908 hands. This player is a SnG regular playing a LAG style. He is not the player, I have the largest amount of hands with, but that is mainly because, 6-max is a relatively new format for me. I consider this player to be a very good regular, who could possibly be a full time professional. At the time of day, this hand was played, there is no action in SnGs higher than 10$, so even the very best players need to move down to find action. With this in mind lets look at the hand:
PokerStars, $9.15 + $0.85 - Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (4 ante) - 5 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php
UTG: 1,367 (46 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,121 (37 bb)
BU: 1,339 (45 bb)
SB: 2,827 (94 bb)
BB: 2,346 (78 bb)
Pre-Flop: (65) Hero is CO with A♠ K♣
1 fold, Hero raises to 75, 2 players fold, BB calls 45
Not much to say here. Obviously AKo is a standard open in any game from any seat.
Flop: (185) 8♦ K♦ 3♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 74, BB calls 74
Not much to say here either. Obviously TPTK is a standard C-bet for value. Sizing could be debated, but I want to focus mostly on the river decision.
Turn: (333) 8♠ (2 players)
BB bets 113, Hero calls 113
Especially when we have top pair, we need to be aware, that the opponent might have called us on the flop with second or third pair. So the middle card pairing is not great for us. The opponent decides to lead now. As I said, he is a good player, so presumably he understand, that this card is better for his range than mine, and he will be leading with a mix of value and bluffs. I dont think, there is anything to do here other than call. Folding is way to tight especially for this price, and raising would be an overplay.
River: (559) 6♦ (2 players)
BB bets 1,020, CO (Hero) folds
Now the flushdraw completed and he jammed, which was an overbet of nearly 2 times the pot. To call this I need to be good 40% of the time. A player like this is certainly able to pull off a big bluff. But the problem here is, that the only draw just got there, and second pair got there on the turn already. So I only really beat some random stuff here, like maybe AJ or AT with A of diamonds. He is also not applying that much ICM-pressure to me, since we are still 5 players left, and I dont even have the starting stack. And for that reason I think, he is less likely to try to pull off a big bluff, than he would be on the bubble. So I folded, and we will of course never know, if he bluffed me or not.
Summary
I hope these two examples were usefull for people, who are relatively new to the game and struggle with figuring out, when to bluff catch on the river, and when to let it go. I am not really looking for feedback on these hands, since they are just meant as examples. But if someone wants to give feedback anyway, and would have done something different, thats fine as well
