Advice Needed about sample sizes

[major pissadas]

Hello,
I recently came back to poker after 2 years and have a question about sample size. My lifetime stats in MTT's are:

https://ibb.co/RNBRSTx

And my stats from this year:

https://ibb.co/bB4RVXh

Is this a small sample size for 5€ tournaments? I don't understand how I can be losing so hard at them when the players are still so bad. Could it be variance or maybe I'm indeed doing something wrong? My goal was to keep climbing the stakes but this is making it difficult.

Appreciate the input.

 

[Nafor]

Is this a small sample size for 5€ tournaments?

It may feel like a lot, but definitely it is not.
Variance does always matter but the amount of better players will always be higher on 5 euro games than on lower steps. It may not seem that way but most likely that is the case.

 

[major pissadas]

It may feel like a lot, but definitely it is not.
Variance does always matter but the amount of better players will always be higher on 5 euro games than on lower steps. It may not seem that way but most likely that is the case.

I still see the same people at this stake that I saw in the previous ones. I do think I'm playing bigger tournaments than before because the 5€ ones usually have big fields. That also affects variance but still.. it's a big loss to recover from if I don't score a 1st place.

 

[fundiver199]

Yes 53 tournaments is a very small sample. Even over 1.000 tournaments there will still be a lot of variance. This is why, its usually recommended to play with a bankroll of at least 100 times your highest buyin. Which in this case would mean 500€. Check out this free variance calculator:

Tournament Variance Calculator

Poker Tournament Variance Simulator – calculates variance for poker tournaments, MTTs and SNGs.

www.primedope.com

 

[pentazepam]

Yes 53 tournaments is a very small sample. Even over 1.000 tournaments there will still be a lot of variance. This is why, its usually recommended to play with a bankroll of at least 100 times your highest buyin. Which in this case would mean 500€. Check out this free variance calculator:

Tournament Variance Calculator

Poker Tournament Variance Simulator – calculates variance for poker tournaments, MTTs and SNGs.

www.primedope.com

I've seen those calculators a lot. But they still scare the shit out of me every time.

Think about LIVE tournaments. You can probably never know your true win rate. And the difference between the poor bastard that is in the bad case scenario compared to the one that runs like Phil Hellmuth.

Not to hijack the thread too much: But have you switched to MTTs now?

 

[fundiver199]

Not to hijack the thread too much: But have you switched to MTTs now?

I dont have time for MTTs except in weekends, so still playing a mix of SnGs and MTTs.

 

[major pissadas]

Yes 53 tournaments is a very small sample. Even over 1.000 tournaments there will still be a lot of variance. This is why, its usually recommended to play with a bankroll of at least 100 times your highest buyin. Which in this case would mean 500€. Check out this free variance calculator:

Tournament Variance Calculator

Poker Tournament Variance Simulator – calculates variance for poker tournaments, MTTs and SNGs.

www.primedope.com

I have over 100 BI for my stakes and will go down in if I ever drop that amount. And it's 127 5€ tournaments in which I'm down 41 BI. The variance calculator has scenarios a lot worse than mine though.

 

[fundiver199]

And it's 127 5€ tournaments in which I'm down 41 BI. The variance calculator has scenarios a lot worse than mine though.

Yeah I dont think, you need to worry to much about this. You are still profitable overall, and there should not be a 50% drop in ROI by going from 1-2€ MTTs to 5€ MTTs. So if the 5€ MTTs are still soft, then just keep playing them, as long as you have enough bankroll. Be honest to yourself though. One of the mental pitfalls of poker is to convince yourself, that all your opponents are bad, and they only win, because they get lucky. So its important to use some kind of objective method like HUD-data when determining, how soft or not the games really are.

 

[eetenor]

Hello,
I recently came back to poker after 2 years and have a question about sample size. My lifetime stats in MTT's are:

https://ibb.co/RNBRSTx

And my stats from this year:

https://ibb.co/bB4RVXh

Is this a small sample size for 5€ tournaments? I don't understand how I can be losing so hard at them when the players are still so bad. Could it be variance or maybe I'm indeed doing something wrong? My goal was to keep climbing the stakes but this is making it difficult.

Appreciate the input.

It easily could be variance but we want to be sure it is not incorrect strategy in our game play.

If you have hud data it is time to dive into that data---If your hud has a leak finder use that first - then pick the inflection spot leaks first- leaking at 100bb needs fixing but sub 30bb post late reg spots are the leaks that really stop us from hitting those FT's

 

[major pissadas]

It easily could be variance but we want to be sure it is not incorrect strategy in our game play.

If you have hud data it is time to dive into that data---If your hud has a leak finder use that first - then pick the inflection spot leaks first- leaking at 100bb needs fixing but sub 30bb post late reg spots are the leaks that really stop us from hitting those FT's

I use PokerTracker 4. I don't think it has a leak finder for MTT's. I did notice however that, since returning to the game this year, I've been losing a lot of favorable all-ins in the later stages of the game which prevent me from getting a better placement, even though my ITM % is very high. My highest placement this year is top 4. If I could snag a top 1 or close in a big 5€ MTT, the profit would be enough to be rolled for 10€ tournaments but it's so hard to get that 1st place when there's over 1k people :/

 

[eetenor]

I use PokerTracker 4. I don't think it has a leak finder for MTT's. I did notice however that, since returning to the game this year, I've been losing a lot of favorable all-ins in the later stages of the game which prevent me from getting a better placement, even though my ITM % is very high. My highest placement this year is top 4. If I could snag a top 1 or close in a big 5€ MTT, the profit would be enough to be rolled for 10€ tournaments but it's so hard to get that 1st place when there's over 1k people :/

I just googled- leak finder PT4- their are videos on how to use it to do just that. Mostly it sounds like you are doing well and variance is effecting your results- it never hurts to improve our game so I hope finding some leaks helps turbo your results.

 

[major pissadas]

I just googled- leak finder PT4- their are videos on how to use it to do just that. Mostly it sounds like you are doing well and variance is effecting your results- it never hurts to improve our game so I hope finding some leaks helps turbo your results.

I think that's only for cash games