What can I take a shot with here?

[Dorkus Malorkus]

From misch's Stars game last night. JL is JL, he's been a little overtight HU so far, but is obv a good, thinking player.

pokerstars GAME #7444623504: TOURNAMENT #37859838, $5.00+$0.50 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (100/200) - 2006/12/14 - 20:19:40 (ET)
Table '37859838 2' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 6: Qhr1s (10412 in chips)
Seat 9: JesusLederer (3088 in chips)
Qhr1s: posts the ante 25
JesusLederer: posts the ante 25
Qhr1s: posts small blind 100
JesusLederer: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Qhr1s [TWO CARDS]
Qhr1s: raises 400 to 600
JesusLederer: raises 2463 to 3063 and is all-in

Let's say I raised without looking at my cards* (but JL doesn't know this). What's your calling range here?


*Note: I didn't actually raise without looking at my cards.

 

[ChuckTs]

AA-AA

But seriously, unless he's been putting plays on you (which I doubt since JL is a pretty straight forward, TAG player preflop in my experiences with him) then I'd say I'm only calling with premiums plus a little bit. I'd say TT+, AJ+ and maybe KQ. If this were full ring, I'd dump everything but the high pairs.

 

[t1riel]

JL has a good hand but probably not a monster one. He's shortstacked and needs to make a move soon. My guess, he either has the following hands: AK, AQ, JJ, or Pocket Tens. That being said, Since you raised, you probably have A-something, K-something or a high pocket Pair. Ace-something, I would call since you have more than 3x what JL has. If you have a pocket pair higher than 6, I would call as well. Anything less I would probably fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Since you raised, you probably have A-something, K-something or a high pocket Pair.

I've been raising 80% of buttons while HU.

 

[t1riel]

I've been raising 80% of buttons while HU.

Well, you didn't mention that in your first post so that piece of information is useful in my naswer, don't you think?

In that case, Just refer to my first answer to what I would call with:

"Ace-something, I would call since you have more than 3x what JL has. If you have a pocket pair higher than 6, I would call as well. Anything less I would probably fold."

 

[gord962]

That being said, Since you raised, you probably have A-something, K-something or a high pocket Pair.

Chris is a big-stack-bully. Knowing JL will fold a mediocre hand to a PF raise, Chris would have raised PF with any paint card, any two connectors and two suited.

Unless Chris has QQ or better or AK I would fold to JL. If you called and won with anything less me thinks you are a lucksack

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Raising your button the vast majority of the time is pretty standard HU strategy (especially with the chip stacks lying as they did in the hand in the OP - I can standard raise more freely simply because I am not committed to call a push, and a push is the only real option JL has apart from folding), so I didn't really care to mention it. If you're called you get to play a pot in position, if you're raised then I guess you actually have to look at your cards and re-evaluate.

Raising only Ax/Kx and high pairs HU is really, really weak.

 

[t1riel]

Chris is a big-stack-bully.

Again, didn't know that considering the fact I've never played against him.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Unless Chris has QQ or better or AK I would fold to JL. If you called and won with anything less me thinks you are a lucksack

You really fold AQ/JJ/etc here?

Edit: Tim, start playing the Stars events!

Edit II: I guess I'm gonna feel silly after all these responses when I show what I was thinking for so long about calling with.

 

[blankoblanco]

That being said, Since you raised, you probably have A-something, K-something or a high pocket Pair.

Don't know what made you think that. If anybody raises on the button while heads up and you're able to say they "probably" have an A, K or big pair, they are playing way too passively, IMO. Raise the hell out of that button.

 

[t1riel]

Edit: Tim, start playing the Stars events!

Make it a day and time where I'm available to play and I will.

 

[t1riel]

I state my original answer on what to call that all in with.

Ace-something, I would call since you have more than 3x what JL has. If you have a pocket pair higher than 6, I would call as well. Anything less I would probably fold.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I think that's about closest to my estimate too. I'm folding a weak Ax and calling with KQs, maybe KQo though, but there's far too much of a chance that I'm dominated with a weak Ax.

 

[blankoblanco]

Unless Chris has QQ or better or AK I would fold to JL.

Seems incredibly way too tight to me. Couldn't even imagine folding as low as 88 here. Sure JL may have a reputation for being somewhat tight but Chris is raising nearly every button (which, as mentioned, is pretty standard strategy for this situation). Do you honestly think JL is automatically giving Chris credit for a good hand here? Of course not. If he thinks he likely has the best hand, he could certainly push here. He's short stacked and has lots of fold equity, so he could push with garbage if he thinks it's likely enough that Chris will fold + he'll have live cards if he gets called. You think it would take a premium hand to come to that conclusion? No way. He could have a very good hand, sure, but by no means does he have to.

Part of playing the other player (and not just your cards) is realizing that the other player is also playing you (and not just his cards).

 

[gord962]

You really fold AQ/JJ/etc here?

Knowing JL I would say it would be the smart move to fold those, not what I would actually do. Chances are he didn't push with anything less.

I think I would like end up calling with 88 or better and AK, AQ, possibly AJ and KQ, but it would probably take the hands I mentioned earlier to beat what JL pushed with.

 

[Lo-Dog]

I watched this game and it went on forever so I would call with ATC just to get the thing over with.

Any pair, Ax where x > 7 , KJ KQ. Thats it.

 

[Stick66]

Trying not to be over-analytical, but a TAG player like JL will play back at a perceived bully if he gets sick of it. I would not rule out Ax or K7+. By what he's said so far, I'll guess Chris could have any Ax, Kx, Qx, small pair, or even suited connectors.

With only 700 in the pot and a 3-1 chip lead, I would fold unless I had any pair, a big Ace, or big King.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I had 33 and folded.

Good/bad/ugly? I think on reflection it was an easier fold than I made it out to be at the time, but my cursed impatience nearly led me to wtfgambooooooool.

 

[Stick66]

Trying not to be over-analytical, but a TAG player like JL will play back at a perceived bully if he gets sick of it. I would not rule out Ax or K7+. By what he's said so far, I'll guess Chris could have any Ax, Kx, Qx, small pair, or even suited connectors.

With only 700 in the pot (correction: for him to get) and a 3-1 chip lead, I would fold unless I had any pair, a big Ace, or big King.

Looks like I was right. You did fine with only 700 for him to have.

 

[Bombjack]

3-3 is an easy fold. You're 50-50 at best and very possibly a huge dog. You have a bigger stack but that's no reason to make bad calls.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 46.2754 % 45.66% 00.62% { 3d3h }
Hand 2: 53.7246 % 53.11% 00.62% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KQo }

Getting 1.5 to 1 I need 40% to win, which I have against the range I've given JL (I think this is a reasonable range, no?), so it's actually pretty borderline.

If I feel I can outplay JL then there's an argument for folding, but in any case the decision is closer than I expected without running the numbers.

 

[joosebuck]

i would call with anything & hope to be live vs something like a/x. if you are raising 80% of buttons he might be telling you that you cant do that anymore.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

i'd say 66+, AJ+

 

[mischman]

Based on chip counts and the $600 taht you already put in the pot, ill take any 2 live cards and a pokerstars deck.