What To Do?

[mischman]

Playing at the FT of a $5.50 MTT. Average Stack is 650k. Blinds 10k/20k-Blinds go up to 20k/40k in 3 hands

Past reads and history:
Seat 3 had a been a solid player, not playing many hands but when he does he plays them VERY aggressive.

Seat 9 is BB
Seat 8 is SB
Seat 7 is button

Seat 3 has about 800k in chips and you have about 920k. The chip leader(not involved in hand) has 1.35mil.
You are in the BB with

.
Seat 3 raises to 40k.
Everyone folds to you and since it was the min. raise, you call

The flop Comes

You check, Seat 3 throws out 40k, you raise to 80k, seat 3 calls.

Turn comes the

You check and seat 3 checks.

The river comes a

You check and seat 3 throws in 70k and you raise to 150k. Without hesitating seat 3 gos all in....

What do you do and why?

 

[mrsnake3695]

Call

You have the straight, there is no flush possibility and no pair which means a straight is the highest possible hand. It looks like he may have a set, or he has a big pair and he thinks you are bluffing on a missed flush draw or even he may be bluffing a missed flush draw.

The one hand that beats you is 10-9. If he has that then you just lose, but I wouldn't fold to the only one possible hand that has you beat.

 

[mrsnake3695]

Never mind, i put on my glassed there is a flush out there which changes everything, lol. In looking at his betting pattern it fits nicely with a flush draw going into the river, probably the nut flush draw.

 

[cherokee kid]

When you saw that the 2 on the turn you should of bet at least or more then you raised on the flop. Pure pressure should of been the Key to success.

 

[Alon Ipser]

I fold because I think he has 8 and 9 of spades. Not a great hand preflop but enough for a min. raise and maybe steal the pot. Post flop his bet seems to be an info bet and he has enough outs to call. You probably could have bought the pot after the turn. He hits the monster on the river, you check, he value bets and then the all in. Then again he may be changing gears and bluffing but I still think it's the 8,9 spades

 

[twizzybop]

I would call.. If he beats you with a flush so be it.. if he has a higher straight so be it.. you have 3rd best hand here and you said he is a solid player.

His mini wimp raise screamed of a pocket pair .. If he is betting out with AK, AQ, AJ suited then so again so be it.. he got his flush. Then he bet out again with a mini bet on the flop and then called your raise and without hesitation. I would actually give him the benefit of the doubt here and call.. if I am gone I am gone..

Then again if you don't call you'd still be around avg stack..realizing this aspect I would fold even if he only had top pair, 2 pair or a set..

I honestly think though he is trying to buy the pot.

 

[Effexor]

I don't like the reraise on the river. With the flush out there, and the fact that it was fairly obvious that he wasn't going to fold, why not just call his river bet?

I'd still call, he very well could have been playing a weak ace, like A8, and figured his TPTK was good, and that you were trying to push him off the pot with just 2 over cards.

 

[joosebuck]

raise the flop to 120k, bet the turn and worst case check call river if it's not all in.. although you might be committed after that. He could be raising with something like a9 and could be chopping it with you, too.

 

[joosebuck]

I fold because I think he has 8 and 9 of spades. Not a great hand preflop but enough for a min. raise and maybe steal the pot. Post flop his bet seems to be an info bet and he has enough outs to call. You probably could have bought the pot after the turn. He hits the monster on the river, you check, he value bets and then the all in. Then again he may be changing gears and bluffing but I still think it's the 8,9 spades

i think we can rule out 89s. suited connectors dont have as much value at this stage of the game, in comparison with a hand like K9/A9, which is much more feasible. I think he 1/2pot bet an open ended straight draw. I'd call the river (well really, i'd have called his 70k bet) and pray it wasnt K9spades or A9spades.

 

[Styrofoam]

he has a 9. He doens't have 9/10. You call this, and if you're beaten with a flush, you're beat. By the way, you're a victim of FPS (fancy play syndrome). Why check-raise here? Put the pressure on him by betting, or simply call his bet after the check. It was a semi-weak bet but you don't have hte nuts here ... no reason to check raise. You either bet out, or check/call. I am in favor of the bet out. Chances are he raises (not all in) and you call the raise. Instead you've risked all your chips on a hand that you don't have the nuts.

 

[joosebuck]

Let's put him on a range of hands

AA-10s - 10% (looks like it preflop, but his flop/turn play makes it seem not likely)
910s - 5%. i dont think your typical TA/A will raise late in a tourney with 910s but even if, his post flop non-aggressive play screams I DONT HAVE 910s. if he had 910s here he would either a) check/call the flop and see the turn, or b)overbet the pot and try to take it down there or c) semi-bluff raise with the flush+gutshot+overs
A9 - 40% my money is on A9. Late in tourneys hands like A9 go way up in value, and hands like 910 go way down. Your typical TA player should know this and act accordingly.
A9s - 15% bad luck for you if he sucked out a flush
K9 - 15% if he doesn't have A9 he has K9
K9s - 5%
Bluff with something like AK/AQ/AJ - 10% alotting 10% for the bluff as harrington says

based on those ranges of hand, check call seems more appropriate than the check raise, since the only thing that will pay to see the showdown will be hands that either chop or beat you.

 

[joosebuck]

also, stop minraising. raise the flop to 150k and if he calls, bet out the river -near- potsize, like 350k. i dont really see what you were trying to do. you took control of the pot on the flop (sort of) and then gave it back on the turn. you have to push hard on the turn and make him fold his overs. you went from standing to win a 350k-500k pot to chopping the pot at best.

You have 880k on the flop, then you shouldraise to 150k or so, (730k left). Then bet out the turn the 350k and you're down to 380k and pretty much not folding to a raise. A supposed TA player will take notice and fold.