Variance? Poker Gods?

CDNMAN 42

CDNMAN 42

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I'm not sure which it is but sometimes its is just not realistic...the villain in this case had shoved at least 4 previous times with junk..57, 9 10, 68, etc and of course he had connected on each of them and now it was my turn...:):):)
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524VYG2k8
 
MishkaZL

MishkaZL

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I just don't play with cards like yours and that's why I don't have such situations. In my opinion KTo, it's also junk.
 
Roller

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Many ways to look at the situation but you can't have the poker gods shine on you when your always in the lead. Makes being on the other side a slightly different perspective.
 
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fundiver199

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The issue here is the fact, you choose to open small (2,5BB) rather than open shove. It seems like, it was the final table of a 45-man, which mean, you were two places from the money, which again mean, there is a lot of ICM-pressure on the middling stacks like BB. BB started the hand with around 13 bigs, and SB was the shorty of the table with less than 10 bigs.

This is a situation, where you HAVE to apply pressure by moving all in and let them make a decision for their tournament life. When you open small, you invite big blind in particular to rejam on you, because he will have fold equity. And while you got it in against a dominated hand this time, he will also rejam with hands, that are ahead of you or have 40´ish percent equity. Like QJ, 98, whatever it be.

This time he was out of line, but if you want to exploit that, you should min-raise hands like AA or KK, not KT offsuit. With KT offsuit you really just want both of them to fold, so that you pick up a round of blinds and antes uncontested and consolidate your position as the second largest stack. And for sure he would have folded T9 offsuit, so this is a bad beat, you invited to happen.
 
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dregan

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If this took place on a freeroll, then there is nothing to be surprised at. In general, for example, I don't play with K10 on allins.
 
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fundiver199

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I plugged the hand into ICMizer now, and as played with Hero opening to 2,5BB, KTo is part of Heros opening range. But its only winning Hero 0,03% of the price pool, and more importantly when calling this jam from BB, Hero is losing 0,36% of the price pool. Villain on the other hand is not supposed to rejam T9o, but its very close, since it only loses him 0,03% of the price pool. So as played the only real mistake made here is Hero calling off the jam with KTo. This is to loose due to the ICM implications, where calling and losing will leave Hero with the second shortest stack and a big risk of bubbling the tournament.

Now lets exploit the alternative, which is Hero open jamming. By taking this line KTo win Hero 0,17% of the price pool, so at least 5 times more, than we win by raising to 2,5BB. This is assuming, that both opponents play push or fold, so its not entirely correct, but it still goes a long way to show, how much more profitable jamming is with these stack sizes and ICM pressure. If the opponents defend correctly, SB will call 25% of the time, which is not the end of the world, since he is so short. BB will only call 9% of the time, so less than 1 in 10 times will we find ourself in this situation, where a huge percentage of our stack is at risk. And this is why, jamming is so much better than raising to 2,5BB. Especially if we are then also going to call off to wide, when we get jammed on.
 
garibe

garibe

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I plugged the hand into ICMizer now, and as played with Hero opening to 2,5BB, KTo is part of Heros opening range. But its only winning Hero 0,03% of the price pool, and more importantly when calling this jam from BB, Hero is losing 0,36% of the price pool. Villain on the other hand is not supposed to rejam T9o, but its very close, since it only loses him 0,03% of the price pool. So as played the only real mistake made here is Hero calling off the jam with KTo. This is to loose due to the ICM implications, where calling and losing will leave Hero with the second shortest stack and a big risk of bubbling the tournament.

Now lets exploit the alternative, which is Hero open jamming. By taking this line KTo win Hero 0,17% of the price pool, so at least 5 times more, than we win by raising to 2,5BB. This is assuming, that both opponents play push or fold, so its not entirely correct, but it still goes a long way to show, how much more profitable jamming is with these stack sizes and ICM pressure. If the opponents defend correctly, SB will call 25% of the time, which is not the end of the world, since he is so short. BB will only call 9% of the time, so less than 1 in 10 times will we find ourself in this situation, where a huge percentage of our stack is at risk. And this is why, jamming is so much better than raising to 2,5BB. Especially if we are then also going to call off to wide, when we get jammed on.

Thanks! this is exactly why people should review their hands after being tilted by these things.

Most ppl here just wanna vent a bad beat and never look on what was actually happening on the hand.

I am just a beginner, but learning how to analyze these spots and understand that sometimes I played a hand badly is key to progress in the game.
 
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