Stealing on the bubble...

[loopmeister]

On the bubble in a tourney. Top 50 places paid.
I have nothing. It's a pure steal attempt, but given the stack sizes of the blinds, I figured an ideal time for it.

** Game ID 14141352 starting - 2006-11-13 21:43:23
** R10 000 FreeRoll[8995]:Table 6 [Multi Table Hold 'em] (6000.00|12000.00 No Limit - MTT) real money

- LuNaTiC sitting in seat 1 with R17620.00
- JAMESBOND sitting in seat 2 with R20312.50
- Faddy sitting in seat 3 with R14902.00
- loopy sitting in seat 4 with R25320.00 [Dealer]
- Ronk sitting in seat 5 with R1230.00
- King_Eric sitting in seat 7 with R5095.50
(these are their balances AFTER posting the blinds)

- chucky111111 sitting in seat 9 with R45630.00
- TopShot sitting in seat 10 with R38360.00

Ronk posted the small blind - R3000.00
King_Eric posted the big blind - R6000.00

** Dealing card to loopy: 5 of Diamonds, 7 of Diamonds
chucky111111 folded
TopShot folded
LuNaTiC folded
JAMESBOND folded
Faddy folded
loopy raised - R12000.00

Who raises for the steal, and who folds (I presume a call is out of the question, but I put it as an option anyway)?

 

[F Paulsson]

I raise to steal, but I push all-in here. BB is getting better than 2:1 on his money and you really, really, really want him to fold immediately.

 

[loopmeister]

He's getting 2:1 anyway since he'll be all-in.

The only benefit to pushing (which I didn't think of at the time) is the psychological one where BB goes- cripes! he's all-in for 25K!

It may also be pertinent to note that tourney leader had about 125K in chips at this stage.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Play somewhere with a better structure. 3k/6k blinds with those stacks is ridiculous.

I probably just fold this because the blind's calling ranges are so vast.

 

[F Paulsson]

Ah sorry, I misread who the BB was - I thought it was TopShot.

Then the size doesn't matter much. I'd still raise though.

 

[loopmeister]

Play somewhere with a better structure. 3k/6k blinds with those stacks is ridiculous.

I knew it!! Now many of the discussions here about tourney statregy make much more sense!

You know how difficult it is to play TAG in these freerolls when the blinds increase every 1.5 orbits?

 

[ChuckTs]

What chris said. You're all at the point of pretty much calling with any 2.

I wait for a better hand since, as chris said, villain's calling range should be huge. And you definitely don't want a call.

p.s. if you're gonna steal, then push. Minraising is a poopy play.

 

[Bombjack]

Fold.... with 7-high you're a dog to any two cards.... and seeing as they have less than 1 big blind left each, the blinds' calling range is any two cards. It'll also destroy your credibility for any later steal attempts.

 

[loopmeister]

p.s. if you're gonna steal, then push. Minraising is a poopy play.

Again, the minraise would have put them all-in. The only difference a push makes is psychological; which I admit, may have helped my cause.

Since it was on the bubble, my thinking was:
- These guys are dead in the water; they'll be looking to hold out for one more round and try and make it ITM. Thus I figured my fold equity was better than average.
- I only really needed the BB to fold. He's already contributed 6K to the pot; the most SB can put in is 4.2K. So even if SB calls AND wins, I'm still up 1.8K

AS it happened, both called. SB had pocket 10s and BB paired his Kx. I just missed a flush. Although this loss hurt me bad, and to add insult to injury, I was whisked away immediately after this to another table UTG, I held held to finish comfortably ITM.

 

[ChuckTs]

oh I missed that...made the exact same mistake FP did.

Well ignore my comment then; I also don't think it makes much of a difference (psychologically) pushing rather than just minraising.

 

[dsm420]

fold. if I'm in either blind I call with anything because I'm priced in. You should be called by both blinds but may get a fold from one who wants to limp to money. you don't want to show the other players at the table that you might make moves with a hand like this.

 

[ChuckTs]

^^^that's another point. You have to maintain as tight a table image at this point as possible in order to steal blinds successfully. You don't want people seeing you with 75s pushing the blinds around as they'll definitely give you less credit for a hand later on.

 

[joosebuck]

i dont give credit to anyone in a freeroll..