Something Different - HU analysis

[switch0723]

Only 2nd hand of the sng, whats our standard line here???

pokerstars Game #17248263762: Tournament #87418561, $5.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2008/05/06 - 17:12:45 (ET)
Table '87418561 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: pokerphsy (1490 in chips)
Seat 2: switch0723 (1510 in chips)
switch0723: posts small blind 10
pokerphsy: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to switch0723 [8d Ad]
switch0723: raises 40 to 60
pokerphsy: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [3h 8c 5c]
pokerphsy: bets 20
switch0723: ???????????????

 

[OzExorcist]

My standard line would be to raise to about 80:

- Chances are you've got the best hand
- It's heads up, so chances are a worse hand will still give you action
- There's draws out there, which you don't want to give a cheap card to
- Overcards might also be a problem for you, and you don't want to give them away cheap either

 

[p0K35]

humm, nothing spectacular about this hand, though I wonder what the issue is here...

Ok, blind vs blind, and you on BB, bump it up to 3xBB, ok, that's fine, but what is your expectation here, steal the SB, lotsa Diamonds??? That they call is nothing special.

Ok, you hit top pr and no diamonds, with a slightly coordinated board, and SB leads out with:

Block bet
Draw, could be big draw, fishies love the frush draw...
Monster

I smell block bet, or total fish. At these stakes, who friggin knows?

You raised preflop, hit TPTK, with a 120+20 bet pot, bet 140, show strength, and position. Be prepared to fold. That raise you make is a "find out where I'm at" bet. 3 things can now happen:

They fold. Take it down, good job.
They call, hurumph...
They raise, just fold, move on.

Really what do you really think will improve your hand? The club frush draw will likely be a calling station, though the OESD, will probably do the same. Anyway, I think the A8c are dirty outs, so you are drawing thin here.

again, what are your expectation here, win a big pot? With a better flop perhaps...

Or you can flat call. Which is a horrible poker play in a donkfest at these stakes....

 

[feitr]

lol. In HU you are so f'n far ahead on this hand in most cases it isn't funny. Ppl will lead from OOP on the flop with crap like bottom/2nd pair, because that is a hard hand to play vs an aggressive player since you can't call their c-bet + further streets. Ppl will lead out with a FD and oftentimes (if you are aggressive) ppl will lead out with absolutely nothing because they know they have to fold to a cbet most times. But that is more applicable later in the tourn when they are under pressure.

Anyways as for what you should do. Bump it to 100. If he folds good. If he flat calls then you should bet the turn unless a scare card comes because most likely he has TPNK or a draw of some sort. If he actually calls turn then check/call river. If he reraises on the flop then i would call and check call to the river unless he is going to make you pay alot. However, the guys who like to bet 20 into a 120 pot etc are FANTASTIC to play vs because even if they have you beat they rarely make you pay enough to see showdown.

The key to remember about HU is that all hand requirements go to hell. TPTK is almost the nuts in HU. However, at the early stages of a game you do have to be careful to advoid getting too attached to a hand before you understand the tendencies of your opponent. For example, just because somebody 3 bet you twice early on doesn't mean they are a maniac...they may very well have picked up a few large hands.

HU is 100% about reading your opponent and applying pressure and forcing them to make a mistake. I've layed down huge hands in heads up but i've also called down pot size river bets with K high-->HU completely depends on your opponent far more than any other game type imo.

Some players you'll be able to pick up tells like they tend to bet OOP on flops you have raised when they have nothing/small pair or draw, because you know if they hit hard they will check raise. Some players will lead out on the flop from BB when they hit hard hoping to induce a bluff etc. So basically, "what you do" in that situation depends on who you are playing. In general TPTK is way ahead, but early in a HU match do be careful of getting too committed to a pot before you understand your opponent's betting patterns.

 

[blankoblanco]

make it 90 or more. you crush his range and your hand is too vulnerable to let him buy a free card for a minbet. don't know why you'd do anything but raise

 

[robwhufc]

lol. In HU you are so f'n far ahead on this hand in most cases it isn't funny. Ppl will lead from OOP on the flop with crap like bottom/2nd pair, because that is a hard hand to play vs an aggressive player since you can't call their c-bet + further streets. Ppl will lead out with a FD and oftentimes (if you are aggressive) ppl will lead out with absolutely nothing because they know they have to fold to a cbet most times. But that is more applicable later in the tourn when they are under pressure.

Anyways as for what you should do. Bump it to 100. If he folds good. If he flat calls then you should bet the turn unless a scare card comes because most likely he has TPNK or a draw of some sort. If he actually calls turn then check/call river. If he reraises on the flop then i would call and check call to the river unless he is going to make you pay alot. However, the guys who like to bet 20 into a 120 pot etc are FANTASTIC to play vs because even if they have you beat they rarely make you pay enough to see showdown.

The key to remember about HU is that all hand requirements go to hell. TPTK is almost the nuts in HU. However, at the early stages of a game you do have to be careful to advoid getting too attached to a hand before you understand the tendencies of your opponent. For example, just because somebody 3 bet you twice early on doesn't mean they are a maniac...they may very well have picked up a few large hands.

HU is 100% about reading your opponent and applying pressure and forcing them to make a mistake. I've layed down huge hands in heads up but i've also called down pot size river bets with K high-->HU completely depends on your opponent far more than any other game type imo.

Some players you'll be able to pick up tells like they tend to bet OOP on flops you have raised when they have nothing/small pair or draw, because you know if they hit hard they will check raise. Some players will lead out on the flop from BB when they hit hard hoping to induce a bluff etc. So basically, "what you do" in that situation depends on who you are playing. In general TPTK is way ahead, but early in a HU match do be careful of getting too committed to a pot before you understand your opponent's betting patterns.

Very good analysis, a lot of H2H players are so timid that they will check when they miss, min bet when they hit bottom pair, and bet big when they hit top pair, and they will do this EVERY time. They may as well play with their hands turned over, they are so obvious. That doesn't mean they wont repeatedly suck out on you or be continuously dealt significantly better hands than you though

I'd raise this to 100, and expect a call and another 20 instabet on the turn. Even if they hit 2 pair, they'll probably misplay it so badly you'll escape intact (in H2H SnG's an early loss of 1/3rd or 1/2 stack is no way a disaster, just a temporary blip).

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

make it 90 or more. you crush his range and your hand is too vulnerable to let him buy a free card for a minbet. don't know why you'd do anything but raise

^ this.

the hand seems very straightforward unless you're holding a tricky turn decision back.

 

[switch0723]

^^^ Almost got it Chris, it gets more interesting right now

Dealt to switch0723 [8d Ad]
switch0723: raises 40 to 60
pokerphsy: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [3h 8c 5c]
pokerphsy: bets 20
switch0723: raises 90 to 110
pokerphsy: raises 190 to 300
switch0723: ???????? Hmmmmmmmm, bet/raising aye

 

[CfPoker]

At this point i'm tempted to let this go. Blinds are still only at 10/20 and I believe the levels last 10 mintues so there is plenty of play left yet. If you want to continue this hand you need to raise here and that means:

- he might fold (unlikely I think)
- he might call (also I think unlikely)
- he might shove (most likely, and you're either badly hurt or playing for stacks)

Top pair is an excellent hand heads up, but it's not unbeatable. He may well have hit 2P here. I doubt a straight/flush draw would raise here so we can probably discount them. He might just have TPGK which puts you way ahead. Another possibility is if he's being tricky with an overpair, unlikely, but a slow played overpair preflop is not uncommon.

It's probably 50/50 whether I'd be willing to put my stack on the line here, but with the blinds so low I'm tempted to let this go and outplay my opponent in lots of smaller pots, and try and get into the bigger pots in slightly better shape.

 

[SavagePenguin]

I'd have to let it go at this point. He could have 9/9+, or some set. I'd guess an over pair.

You can beat what, a flush or straight draw and maybe 9/x? If he's overplaying those hands, then he'll make similar mistakes in the near future and you can exploit and you can exploit him then. If he's not overplaying, then you're beat.

I'd fold, lick my wounds, and call him down if I find out he overplays his hands.

I'm *never* going all-in with TPTK on the second hand of a HU match, and that's where this hand is heading.

 

[dj11]

2nd hand, and nothing has been established between the 2 of you.

PF HU, this is a pretty good hand. But not worth a whole lot this early in this contest. Standard 3x raise here should do a few things;
1-set a tone for the match
2-limit potential loses to weird flops
3-give villain a chance to react favorably, which in this case is to fold to your aggression until that tone has been established.
4-put the notion into villains mind that you are sanely aggressive.

IMO, the most important fact presented is that this is only the 2nd hand of this match.

Flop, I think the c/c option is fine. Still too early to press. His min bet here, and again on the turn suggest he has something of interest, and an over pair is not out of the question. Your raise gave him the option of the c/r. Again, 2nd hand, the most info here might be one of style.

I could let this go, but tptk gets me in trouble often, and this is a case of bad timing.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I load up sharkscope quickly, see he's a horrible player with -30% ROI at $5 donkngos, then pretty happily shove expecting to be called by what is probably either something like middle pair or some sort of draw (the minbet/raise line from a weak player really fits with draws here imo - something like the "I hope my minbet lets me draw for cheap... OH GOD HOW DARE HE RAISE ME OH WELL I HAVE A FLUSH DRAW ARRRRIN" way of thinking).

If he has a set, he has a set - fire up the next one. I think (a) we're ahead of his range and (b) we get our shoves called by worse hands often enough here to justify moving in.

Your raise gave him the option of the c/r.

guh?

 

[dj11]

Meant re-raise.

My point being that the 2nd hand of this contest is still a feeling out period, and he might be checking us out as to whether we fold to a 3 bet, or challenge his aggression. He has just shown us he will challenge our aggression. He has shown us some of his arsenal, and we can choose to not show him much of ours yet.

He could have hit 2nd pair and be the donk Chris found at sharkscope, but we don't know this, and this hand is rife with problems.

HU is as much a battle of the wills as it is a battle of the cards. More probably. And so I think I prefer to no longer engage with this hand, and lay it down. I think I might even go so far as to let villain dominate here for the next 10 hands before changing gears. When I spank him, I want to hear him cry!

 

[CfPoker]

Meant re-raise.
I think I might even go so far as to let villain dominate here for the next 10 hands before changing gears. When I spank him, I want to hear him cry!

This is something I sometimes do. Whilst the blinds are irrelevent let him continually bet me off pots, then make him pay when I actually hit a hand. You'd think the fact I've continually folded, but then suddenly stand up to it and play back would sound alarm bells but some players seem oblivious to this.

Of course, the last time I did this I got it all in preflop with QQ against Q9 and he hit a straight, but that's not the point

 

[feitr]

The only problem with this hand is the fact that you have no reads. This is an incredibly easy shove or fold later on in the game. I personally think that we are still way ahead here. Everybody who is saying 2 pair well you do realise that means he had to call a preflop raise with 83/85/53. It is not realistic to put villain on that. Set is like 1/136 so don't even consider that. 99+ is all you are worried about, and this is not likely unless he is a player that flat calls everything preflop and never raises any hand trying to trap (can't tell without reads).

Anyways, villain is probably making this move with 8x, possibly even 5x and some sort of draw. He leads 20 into a pot of 120 OOP-->about the weakest move you can possibly make. Therefore, he probably expects you to raise with basically ATC and try and take the pot there. He isn't putting you on TPTK and im 99% sure if he is holding Q8 he believes he is way in front. Draws also fit this line quite nicely.

I don't really think you want to play for stacks on this hand however, but i also disagree with folding to the reraise. I'd probably flat call then check call to the river unless he leads out with like 400 on the turn in which case you probably have to fold, especially if another club or something hits. If he is playing that aggressive with a marginal hand you shouldn't have trouble beating him later even if you are a little shortstacked.

Basically there is no standard line. Try your very best not to ever get involved in large pots at the start of a SnG before you have reads. Folding, check/calling, and shoving are all valid plays depending on the reads you have of your opponent. Folding is fine if you want to pick a spot with better reads and shoving is fine if you want to generalise your opponent, in which case you are nicely ahead of his range. But vs an unknown i think that check/calling is our best bet unless he doesn't slow down on turn/river. If a blank hits and he has a draw he is probably checking the turn. If he has Q8 or something then players like this will probably bet something like 100 on the turn and river in which case you get to see *what is probably the best hand* fairly cheap.

 

[switch0723]

I load up sharkscope quickly, see he's a horrible player with -30% ROI at $5 donkngos, then pretty happily shove expecting to be called by what is probably either something like middle pair or some sort of draw (the minbet/raise line from a weak player really fits with draws here imo - something like the "I hope my minbet lets me draw for cheap... OH GOD HOW DARE HE RAISE ME OH WELL I HAVE A FLUSH DRAW ARRRRIN" way of thinking).

Are you me??? They are the exact lines i took and thought, after seeing the fishbowl next to his name, I then proceeded to shove my stack in willingly and happily and was called by 3,7 of clubs (bottom pair with flush draw), Turn card paired the 5, leaving him 12 outs, which he then hit on the river club.

After the hand however i thought to myself, why did i push knowing he was a fish when i could easily have outplayed such a bad player over the entire heads up. Although i think it was the correct play to push, folding the turn and playing for a lot longer vs him would have given me a better chance of winning rather than a 60/40 of whatever it was

P.S. i knew he was a fish since it was an 8 person HU i think so before reg, i sharkscoped the 3 players who were already reg'd and he was one that i scoped so was v happy to be paired with him

 

[switch0723]

^^^ nah, he had 14 outs, which is 48% or something. I still hated hte way i played it however, i much prefer mucking on turn, or calling then reevaluating turn

 

[feitr]

On a side note i really like those HU tourns @ PS. Only just started playing there a couple of days ago but i've played 2 5$ HU 4 player tourns and I won both of them pretty easily. Takes a LONG time if you get a decent opponent because it isn't turbo but in general since you are so deepstacked it is very easy to outplay your opponent. You only have to finish first slightly over 1/4 times to break even and seems to me that it should be pretty easy to finish first close to 50% of the time. So i'd think it is a pretty profitable game type to play.

The fact that it is non-turbo is another reason why i'd prefer the check/call line against an unknown, because even if you lost the hand ~1k chips is more than enough with blinds that small to outplay a fishy player.

As it turns out...that was not a bad play by him at all. Bottom pair + FD is a coin flip vs TPTK. In fact i think he is probably a very slight favourite.

Also be careful about generalizing too much from sharkscope. I normally check out HU opponents as well, but i've played TERRIBLE TERRIBLE players who had +$5000 profit who probably had a bad game and i've lost to some of those -1k donks because i probably didn't give them enough respect.

EDIT: Sorry reposted it

EDIT2: Yea 14 outs but that is actually about 51% (4x rule is only approx. and begins to fall to bits once you have alot of outs). He also has a runner runner straight draw where he could catch 8 outs then 4 outs and that bumps it up a half % or so. Run it through a calculator and i think you'll find the FD is a very slight fav (like 52% or something). But anyway yea it is a coin flip.

 

[switch0723]

^^ I also have 2 pair and trip outs though to bring that back down, I dunno a website for calculations, hopefully someone else will see this and run through one

 

[blankoblanco]

CardPlayer.com - Poker Odds Calculator

it was actually about 52/48 in his favor, but that obviously doesn't make your play wrong

 

[switch0723]

^^^ May not have been wrong, but was certaintly a borderline decision. I honestly think calling then re evaluating is best option ( Only slightly). My shove was way way way too over the top

 

[blankoblanco]

shrug, i usually consider time equity in my decisions. i'd guess i'm about 60% against his range.. lots of draws and weaker 8s. and having that edge to win by the 2nd hand is gonna make for a better rate than having even an 80% chance to win 15 minutes - a half an hour later, an optimistic assumption even against a very bad player. if you lose you can just fire up another one all quick like. time is money

 

[feitr]

Yea if you had to guess you would certainly think you are something like 65%-75% vs a good portion of his range (FD, OESD or some lower pair). It is very hard to put him on a FD + pair coz that means he has to have a 3 (who calls with 73s :S...hell im super LAG HU and i wouldn't call 3x BB with 73s). The only other draw you are behind is 6c7c really.

 

[p0K35]

First off, this is not a HU, hand, blind vs blind, 1on1 like, not HU. Big difference.

I doubt a straight/flush draw would raise here so we can probably discount them.

Which is exactly what the 73c clubs did here, AND called an allin, I may add. At these stakes, you will get tons of frushies(fl loving fishys), and drawing crap willing to risk it all.

Play a few of these mini stakes SNG, even MTT, and you should see what I mean...

So, ok, play like them, risk your whole stack with TPTK, when a coordinated board misses you, on the 2nd hand?? donk taint laying down their 7 high fl draw, so I think I would want a little more ammo to go against their HUGE 35.8% advantage they have here...

Hey, you did pick them off, but you still are only winning 2 out of 3 here, so i would look for better situations, maybe just me, imo.

 

[switch0723]

shrug, i usually consider time equity in my decisions. i'd guess i'm about 60% against his range.. lots of draws and weaker 8s. and having that edge to win by the 2nd hand is gonna make for a better rate than having even an 80% chance to win 15 minutes - a half an hour later, an optimistic assumption even against a very bad player. if you lose you can just fire up another one all quick like. time is money

^^^ Very good point actually

First off, this is not a HU, hand, blind vs blind, 1on1 like, not HU. Big difference.

Hey, you did pick them off, but you still are only winning 2 out of 3 here, so i would look for better situations, maybe just me, imo.

^^^^^^^ ?????? It is a HU hand, what are you reading?

If im only winning 2/3, that means im making profit which is good you know