Should'a, could'a, would'a

CDNMAN 42

CDNMAN 42

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So there I was in a 45 player MTT at the Final table, 5 players left I am in 4th with chips. The player in 5th has been sitting out since before the FT and would be blinded out shortly. I am BB check all the way to the river, and my opponent who is chip leader jams the river, I call. and I suspect most players would do the same in this situation? The chip leaders jam on the river was at best a "cheeky' move. He certainly wasn't short of chips and given the board he was sure I would call..remember there was player sitting out...Let me rephrase not a cheeky move but a bush league move.
 
Andyreas

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Strange move by him for sure but no, I wouldn't have called tbh.

Best you can hope for is a split pot but since there are 3 spades and he's supposed to have many suited connectors on BN, I'd have found a fold easily.

I am being honest and have probably been bluffed from flush boards on river fairly often but I'd never risk any significant portion of my stack for a bluff catch.
 
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Most of us would call as you said and expect to chop, so that makes his play kinda great. With going all in you don't really expect him to have flush there.
 
dannystanks

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Wow, good bet by your opponent! You know you can’t win the pot. He forced you into a chop if you call. If you are wrong he wins and the sit out guy ladders up without even being there. Tough spot but depending on the payouts can you not find a fold here? I would have to think about calling/folding for a while and just watch and see what he does, maybe he gives up a tell. It’s a tough one.
 
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I think your opponent played preflop bad by no raising. Slow play at the flop Was good, but on the turn I would bet in his situation. His river bet is than very good. I think I have called it also. But it might be a mistake becouse of the 5th player
 
Luvepoker

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Tough river spot for sure. Absolute brilliant jam by the villain on that river though. Do you have Nicole there? He knew you had to call there and took advantage of it. The way the hand played out. I’m not sure if I could fold there but with that flash there it would definitely have to be off thought before I call.
 
Branimir84

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Yeah, rough spot. You made no mistakes there, imo, just unlucky.
 
0546474

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In a $1 tournament I would have played exactly the same, but if it was some expensive tournament with big prizes, I can say with 100% certainty that I would fold!!!
 
Pokerpoet2

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Personally I would have folded long before it got to the River, Just what were you hoping for? to make a 3 high Flush? Players forget that even if you had caught a 4th spade on the Turn or River, you were still only playing for a 3 high Flush, if your opponent had a 4 of Spades he had you beat.
I once called a bet on the River with a Ten high Flush when my opponent wrongly believed that it was a split pot because we had both made the Flush as he had the 8 of the same suit and Yes his card was a valid Flush but it didn't beat my 10 it's that simple, but he argued that it should have been a split pot. because the other cards making up the flush were being played by both of us.
Being that it was your Tournament life on the Line I would never had called the All-in, better to wait for a better spot and hope to ladder up, Sure it could have been a bluff but with the 3 spades out there, It appears he wasn't bluffing.
 
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if you are about to get paid, why risk it?? get paid first, then start playing!
 
CDNMAN 42

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Personally I would have folded long before it got to the River, Just what were you hoping for? to make a 3 high Flush? Players forget that even if you had caught a 4th spade on the Turn or River, you were still only playing for a 3 high Flush, if your opponent had a 4 of Spades he had you beat.
I once called a bet on the River with a Ten high Flush when my opponent wrongly believed that it was a split pot because we had both made the Flush as he had the 8 of the same suit and Yes his card was a valid Flush but it didn't beat my 10 it's that simple, but he argued that it should have been a split pot. because the other cards making up the flush were being played by both of us.
Being that it was your Tournament life on the Line I would never had called the All-in, better to wait for a better spot and hope to ladder up, Sure it could have been a bluff but with the 3 spades out there, It appears he wasn't bluffing.
Just a point there was no folding opportunity prior to the river it was just checked down
 
Kenzie 96

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So there I was in a 45 player MTT at the Final table, 5 players left I am in 4th with chips. The player in 5th has been sitting out since before the FT and would be blinded out shortly. I am BB check all the way to the river, and my opponent who is chip leader jams the river, I call. and I suspect most players would do the same in this situation? The chip leaders jam on the river was at best a "cheeky' move. He certainly wasn't short of chips and given the board he was sure I would call..remember there was player sitting out...Let me rephrase not a cheeky move but a bush league move.

Bush league move, most players would call, really? You fold & nothing really changes except the sitout creeps a bit closer to you. You call & you leap from 4th to uh, 4th or you are eliminated, what am I missing here?
 
dallam

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I think your opponent played preflop bad by no raising. Slow play at the flop Was good, but on the turn I would bet in his situation. His river bet is than very good. I think I have called it also. But it might be a mistake becouse of the 5th player

I deeply agree. Here it's important to push the smaller stacks pressure in bubble, and not let them catch combinations and winning hands easily with some garbage which ipmroving into some runner good combination.

It also pretty unlucky to say that villain did a wise move in river, cause what other option this person had, since not valueing the absolute nuts on flop nor turn? Check for the third time, or raise pot to where - when the board has a dealt straight and there was no action on his side?!

Bush league move, most players would call, really? You fold & nothing really changes except the sitout creeps a bit closer to you. You call & you leap from 4th to uh, 4th or you are eliminated, what am I missing here?

The whole action was executed by luck.

Opp had 3x2=6 combinations to broke Hero this way, and there were 46x45=2070 outcomes left. Which means 0.3% to this exact same situation happen after the flop, and make this "heroic" last push to an obvious chop or a very naughty late-value bet.

On the other hand we had 10.5bbs and we risked all to 1.5bbs more having a flush-blocker.
It's interesting cause as opp could have here many connected flush draws types of like 78s etc. I'm not sure on that board with a made flush the value bet would happen only at the River in position. And this could be very confusing + the big stack advantage and bubble situation, so to make this happen in a very great way, they must perfectly hit the straight from A-10. Which was 0.3%.
 
KevinRBTV

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So there I was in a 45 player MTT at the Final table, 5 players left I am in 4th with chips. The player in 5th has been sitting out since before the FT and would be blinded out shortly. I am BB check all the way to the river, and my opponent who is chip leader jams the river, I call. and I suspect most players would do the same in this situation? The chip leaders jam on the river was at best a "cheeky' move. He certainly wasn't short of chips and given the board he was sure I would call..remember there was player sitting out...Let me rephrase not a cheeky move but a bush league move.
Thats hard... I think I had called too 🤷‍♂️
 
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This is obviously a very unusual spot, which does not come up very often. So learning how to play it perfect is not the most important thing in improving our game. But looking at this from an MDF (Mininum Defence Frequency) perspective, then the opponent is betting 4 X the pot in a situation, where both players are at least playing the board. This means, that the unexploitable strategy is to fold something like 7/8 times, because that makes his bluffs break-even. This is assuming, we never have a flush, but thats probably fairly reasonable, since I dont see, why we would be checking a flush on all three streets.

So the question becomes, which hands other than flushes are the best ones to call with? And I think, its quite obvious, that we want to call with hands, that have a spade in them. But that is almost half of all our hands (a bit less given there are 3 on the board). So we cant call with all hands, that have a spade in them. And I think, its better to call with those, that block the flushes, which are most likely to be slowplayed. Which is the nut flush and the straight flush.

So from the GTO perspective the hands to call with are probably those with A, K or 9 of spades in that order. Are since we are supposed to be folding so much, that probably enough? Its definitely a mistake to want to call here, because "LOL I am playing the board, and he must be bluffing", which it seems like, a lot of people want to do.

And then there is the exploitable perspective. Where yes its kind of weird, he played a flopped flush like this. But slowplay is not that uncommon in the micros. What is uncommon though is for people to be overbluffing in spots, where the balanced line mean, they are already bluffing almost 90% of the time. Its a huge risk for Hero to call with very little reward.

So even without doing all this analysis Hero can just fold, and if he got bluffed, then good game to the opponent. It does not really matter, especially since Hero did not even voluntarely put chips in the pot until the river. 53o would have been an easy fold, if Villain had raised preflop. And as a rule of thump for free plays, if our hand is so bad, we would have folded preflop, then we should not look to put in chips postflop either, unless we hit the board really hard.
 
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fundiver199

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I actually messed up above. For Hero to make a profitable call, he need to chop 7 out of 8 times. However from Villains perspective if Hero never has a flush, then he is freerolling on the river, and his bluffs will show a profit, unless Hero always call. So from a GTO perspective this is a pretty f.... up spot. And I guess, the way to fix it is, that Hero must sometimes check a flush on the turn?

But I still believe, that from an exploitable standpoint, we are likely not looking at a bluff more than 7 out of 8 times. At stakes this low its pretty unlikely, someone will actually understand, they have a spot, where they can freeroll by going all-in. Far more often people will just check back and be happy to chop the pot.
 
eetenor

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So there I was in a 45 player MTT at the Final table, 5 players left I am in 4th with chips. The player in 5th has been sitting out since before the FT and would be blinded out shortly. I am BB check all the way to the river, and my opponent who is chip leader jams the river, I call. and I suspect most players would do the same in this situation? The chip leaders jam on the river was at best a "cheeky' move. He certainly wasn't short of chips and given the board he was sure I would call..remember there was player sitting out...Let me rephrase not a cheeky move but a bush league move.
EZ ICM fold- as others have said you are calling for a split pot no need to do that in this ICM spot
As to the mental game aspect of it- the chip leader gets to do these things to us so we just shrug and fold.
The tuff question would have been -what do we do if they bet 40% pot?

:unsure::geek:
 
Poker Orifice

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So there I was in a 45 player MTT at the Final table, 5 players left I am in 4th with chips. The player in 5th has been sitting out since before the FT and would be blinded out shortly. I am BB check all the way to the river, and my opponent who is chip leader jams the river, I call. and I suspect most players would do the same in this situation? The chip leaders jam on the river was at best a "cheeky' move. He certainly wasn't short of chips and given the board he was sure I would call..remember there was player sitting out...Let me rephrase not a cheeky move but a bush league move.
Looks like he played YOU just right.
 
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