QQ from the SB; $3+R

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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I'm fairly new to the table but so far the table seems pretty LAG. I haven't played a hand yet.

Stacks:
- UTG+4 with 28005 - CO with 4295 - BTN with 9100 - SB with 18702 - BB with 20875 - UTG with 4460 - UTG+1 with 8000 - UTG+2 with 20470 - UTG+3 with 15605
index.pl

Blinds: 150/300
Site: Pokerstars
Holecards:
- SB (Hero) is dealt Q♠ Q♣
Preflop:
- UTG+2 calls [300]
- UTG+4 calls [300]
- CO calls [300]
- BTN calls [300]
- SB raises
...
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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I pop to 3200, a little overkill. Hijack calls, all else fold.

*** FLOP *** [4h 7h Kd]
Hero: ...

What are villain's most likely holdings and what do we do?
 
tosborn

tosborn

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Villains range TT+, QJ+.

A continuation bet is expected here so go ahead and push. We are in a tough spot because of villains stack size. If we bet out he pushes making us make a tougher decision. If we check he bets out. By pushing we make villain make the tough decision.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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This tricky as it always is with Qs. Preflop I think you should have raised to 1800 because your only gonna be beat preflop if UTG +2 is slowplaying Aces or Kings so you can quickly get rid of your Qs to a reraise. If it folds round to you thats fine because you've picked up a nice sizable pot in itself and playing Qs postflop is often pretty difficult if any A or K comes off. But getting a caller is just annoying as you hardly have any information about his hand- thats why I hate picking up Qs on a LAG table.

Anyway if you give him a fairly loose range of QQ-66,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,A9o+,KTo+,QJo then your equity against his range of hands on the flop of [4h 7h Kd] is 61%.

With 7600 in the pot I think your best option here is to 2/3 the pot (around 5000), but the trouble is even if he hasn't hit the K he might play back at you. :mad:

It's tough to say.. that's why those pretty ladies always bust me :(

jt
 
J

joeeagles

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I don't think the shove on this flop is terrible because it's very hard to put villain on a hand like AK, so it should (theoretically) force hands like KJ, KT to fold (I skipped KQ because it's less likely he has it since we have 2 Q's) . Unfortunately, I expect the avg donk to make the all-in call even with as low as K9, so I'm not really crazy about it.

This hand represents a good example of why I have learned to no longer overbet PF. The raise to 3200 is excessive, and while the overcard will, of course, come anyway, at least we're not in a position where it becomes harder to escape. The more we raise PF, the more we will have to c-bet, and obviously as a consequence we get dangerously closer and closer to getting pot committed. It's almost as if its better to shove PF rather than raise more than necessary.

If this had been raised to 2k PF, pot would now be 5.2k, as opposed to being 7.6k like it is now. A huge difference. Still though, I don't think one should significantly change any strategy, because I really hate to reward donks that call PF with marginal hands by giving them my whole stack. So I would go for a c-bet and see what happens. I'd lead out about 3.5k, which leaves you with about 12k, and if called I'd get ready to throw away my QQ if I can't check it to showdown. If he calls with a weak K there is a good chance he'll check behind on the turn and then maybe make a smallish bet on the river. Based on what the board looks like by then you might have to call just to make sure it's not a hand like 99, 88 or 66, although those hands are more likely to check behind.

I know this line doesn't sound sexy at all but honestly the shove only folds worse hands and any weak K I think will call it after having put 3.2k in this pot PF. There is a small chance some hand like 99 or 88 could call a shove but only if it's a poor player after the strength you've shown PF. An argument can be made that by checking the turn you're showing weakness and he can try to steal the pot with air. This is true but you just joined this table and this is the 1st hand you get involved with, so if he can make such a read on you (basically putting you on AQ, QQ, JJ or TT type of hand and he understands that the K on the board is intimidating you) then more power to him.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I agree that a push is excessive. We have way too much left relative to what's in the pot, and only a hand that beats us is going to call.

Betting a 'normal' amount will be more likely to keep 88-JJ in, and it gives us a chance to get away from a push.

Anyways I...

*** FLOP *** [4h 7h Kd]
ChuckTs: bets 4600
piket: raises 20180 to 24780 and is all-in
ChuckTs: ...

And hate my life...

Easy fold now right? Does 88-JJ do this? FD?
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Easy fold now right? Does 88-JJ do this? FD?

yes, rarely, and often.

you see underpairs to the K in spots like this sometimes, but seems unlikely here, partly because he probably would have raised PF and partly because you look pretty strong here. and a K is waay more likely (KQ and KJ show up here all the time.. those are like the ultimate donk limp-calling hand besides small pocket pairs, IME). speaking of pocket pairs, always a chance he's got 44 or 77, though unlikely. can easily be a flush draw too, but he probably has an over and you're not in excellent shape there

but primarily i just think it's KQ or KJ too often to call
 
tosborn

tosborn

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go ahead and push

I misread villain's stack as 8000 which changes the strategy completely. As played we have to fold this. Right?

Villains overshove looks strange, but, I can't find a call here.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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WRONG

DonkTs disagrees.

:(

pokerstars GAME #12808756599: TOURNAMENT #64650359, $3.00+$0.30 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (150/300) - 2007/10/23 - 21:51:08 (ET)
Table '64650359 35' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: piket (28005 in chips)
Seat 2: onepktjoe (4295 in chips)
Seat 3: virtua_fish (9100 in chips)
Seat 4: ChuckTs (18702 in chips)
Seat 5: Luppo02 (20875 in chips)
Seat 6: KAOSPOKA (4460 in chips)
Seat 7: Nikish25 (8000 in chips)
Seat 8: LucaG86 (20470 in chips)
Seat 9: Pinner9 (15605 in chips)
piket: posts the ante 25
onepktjoe: posts the ante 25
virtua_fish: posts the ante 25
ChuckTs: posts the ante 25
Luppo02: posts the ante 25
KAOSPOKA: posts the ante 25
Nikish25: posts the ante 25
LucaG86: posts the ante 25
Pinner9: posts the ante 25
ChuckTs: posts small blind 150
Luppo02: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Qs Qc]
KAOSPOKA: folds
Nikish25: folds
LucaG86: calls 300
Pinner9: folds
piket: calls 300
onepktjoe: calls 300
virtua_fish: calls 300
ChuckTs: raises 2900 to 3200
Luppo02: folds
LucaG86: folds
piket: calls 2900
onepktjoe: folds
virtua_fish: folds
*** FLOP *** [4h 7h Kd]
ChuckTs: bets 4600
piket: raises 20180 to 24780 and is all-in
ChuckTs: calls 10877 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [4h 7h Kd] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [4h 7h Kd Ad] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChuckTs: shows [Qs Qc] (a pair of Queens)
piket: shows [Kc As] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
piket collected 38779 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 38779 | Rake 0
Board [4h 7h Kd Ad Js]
Seat 1: piket showed [Kc As] and won (38779) with two pair, Aces and Kings
Seat 2: onepktjoe folded before Flop
Seat 3: virtua_fish (button) folded before Flop
Seat 4: ChuckTs (small blind) showed [Qs Qc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 5: Luppo02 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: KAOSPOKA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Nikish25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: LucaG86 folded before Flop
Seat 9: Pinner9 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

ATCHETHKECHAKHKTHKCH:LDSJF:KLDSJF:AJIJ:KL

tbh 99 kept running through my mind. Had a feeling he was playing back at me; goes to show how little a 'feeling' matters. But really he was fairly aggressive post-flop, and could also have had a FD or smaller pair, but they were just less likely.

Anyways I think the initial PF raise did me in. I wasn't pot committed, but rather psychologically committed to the hand and couldn't let go. One of the worst calls I've made in a while.
 
J

joeeagles

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Lol that's 2 words and an icon, and I have to wholeheartedly agree with them.

A FD could easily be doing this, and although it's not impossible he has 88-JJ, it should be worried about you having AK given the amount of your PF raise. But in any case I don't see how you can make this call just hoping it's a FD. I have to put him on a set or a K. If I have a set of 7's for example I'd shove here too really hoping you have AK and call, since AK is certainly a part of your range.

I know the fold might sound weak because he could be bluffing, but I think it's the way to go.
 
J

joeeagles

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*** FLOP *** [4h 7h Kd]
ChuckTs: bets 4600
piket: raises 20180 to 24780 and is all-in
ChuckTs: calls 10877 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [4h 7h Kd] A♦
*** RIVER *** [4h 7h Kd Ad] J♠
*** SHOW DOWN ***
ChuckTs: shows [Qs Qc] (a pair of Queens)
piket: shows [Kc As] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
tbh 99 kept running through my mind. Had a feeling he was playing back at me; goes to show how little a 'feeling' matters. But really he was fairly aggressive post-flop, and could also have had a FD or smaller pair, but they were just less likely.

Anyways I think the initial PF raise did me in. I wasn't pot committed, but rather psychologically committed to the hand and couldn't let go. One of the worst calls I've made in a while.

Lmao, I have to type faster, didn't get my reply in time. It's just that I'm at work (and not doing anything :) being the lazy bum I am).

If he was aggressive postflop then it could have been a flush draw (maybe even the 99 that you mention), but I agree that the worst part of the hand was raising too much PF which made you feel committed to the hand. He did play this AK in a very tricky and non textbook fashion though. Besides the PF flat call, how he doesn't shove putting you on a squeeze PF beats me. I mean think about it, 4 limpers in +the BB and you overraise it to 3200. To me all that = shove with AK, cause yours looks like an attempt to just take the dead money. I guess he's smarter than me thinking to look at a flop first since he has position on you and he did hide the strength of his hand.

I've been thinking lately about opening a discussion in the strategy section section about raising PF in the later stages of tournies, because this has been something that has haunted me in the past more than once. I've spent some time observing the SM (about an hour every Sunday) when it gets down to ~100 players and I've always noticed how they're careful in sizing PF raises. Even with the antes you can see that rarely they raise 3BB, it's just about always somewhere in the 2 1/2 range and most times, believe it or not, even less than that. The advantages of doing that are pretty obvious. At that stage of the tourney you'll notice that even the avg stack doesn't have a high M and when they raise PF the less committed they are the better it obviously is, also considering that there are many shortstacks in push/fold mode.

I've been thinking about opening (and I will when I get a chance) a discussion thread on PF raises, and I'll probably use this hand as an example. I'm sure we could get something useful out of such a topic.
 
jaketrevvor

jaketrevvor

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Oct 25, 2007
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Yeah I wouldn't have guessed AK either, as your massive PF raise probs look like a play for the dead money, so calling with perhaps KQ and taking a flop would be where thought he was. I'm amazed that with AK he didn't push but I guess the flat-call did work out in the end.

But yeah as a general rule I think don't overbet the pot PF unless there is a very specific reason or if you're pushing - it's true about psychologically commiting yourself and I've been knocked out of many MTTs because of this.

jt
 
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