Q-Hi Flush VS Semi-TAG Player

Stick66

Stick66

Legend
In the money with the chip lead in a 9-player SnG. BB is 38/8. A couple of his plays have been risky-turned-lucky, but most have been solid (hence "semi-TAG"). The other guy is loose n' lucky and could be easily trapped down the road.

I limp the SB with 2 good suited cards. I hit TPMK w/flush draw on the flop and bet the pot. He follows. I hit my flush on the turn & bet the pot again. He comes over all-in.

Is my flush good? Would he risk it all on a Jack or worse-hi flush? His tight tendancies tell me he might limp and not raise a suited Ace or King 3-handed preflop. But his flaws tell me his 2-1 call on the flop could still have been a lower flush draw for only 800.

I want to win this thing, not just cash. Do it call his push & risk being crippled or fold & stay in 2nd place?

FullTiltPoker Game #914238556: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (6138355), Table 1 - 200/400 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:14:00 ET - 2006/08/19
Seat 5: Zacsat (10,035)
Seat 8: BroadwayCarl (5,450)
Seat 9: MrSticker (11,515)
MrSticker posts the small blind of 200
Zacsat posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MrSticker [Qc 9c]
BroadwayCarl folds
MrSticker calls 200
Zacsat checks
*** FLOP *** [Qd 4c 8c]
MrSticker bets 800
Zacsat calls 800
*** TURN *** [Qd 4c 8c] [5c]
MrSticker bets 2,400
Zacsat raises to 8,835, and is all in
MrSticker ...
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
This is two-pair/set/straight(7-6)/worse flush/semi-bluff so often that not calling is horrible, I think. You can't give him credit for an ace-high flush when the only thing he's done so far is to check the big blind and call a bet on the flop.

You've only represented top pair so far. His push doesn't mean "I have the nuts," it can just as easily mean "I have bottom two pair and don't want you to draw out on me."
 
t1riel

t1riel

Legend
It's highly unlikey he has a better flush than you although K-rag suited is possible. If he had Ace-rag suited he wouldn't have gone all in on the turn. I would call. I think he has maybe a straight or even a set (like Pocket Fours) and the three clubs scare him to a point where he goes all in to scare away anyone who is chasing a flush. Call. It's a high probablity you have the best hand.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

Legend
I would say your beat and fold your hand, dont risk it, he might have A-2c.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
I would have to call, but being that you posted this I have a bad feeling that the guy ended up having a K or A high flush, to which I say, well, that'd be quite unfortunate and sometimes that crap just happens.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
He's in the Big blind so if he has a flush it's very likely a worse flush than yours.

Of the 11 clubs you haven't seen, 2 are higher than yours. Assuming he does have a flush, the chances he holds a better one are 1-(9/11)*(8/10) = 35%.

But he's probably got 2 pair and is protecting against a flush draw.
 
Stick66

Stick66

Legend
Thanks folks. The majority says "call", though I'm still confused. But I wish I got more time during my turn to think about this:

*** TURN *** [Qd 4c 8c] [5c]
MrSticker bets 2,400
Zacsat raises to 8,835, and is all in
MrSticker has 15 seconds left to act
MrSticker folds
Uncalled bet of 6,435 returned to Zacsat
Zacsat mucks
Zacsat wins the pot (7,200)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7,200 | Rake 0
Board: [Qd 4c 8c 5c]
Seat 5: Zacsat (big blind) collected (7,200), mucked
Seat 8: BroadwayCarl (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: MrSticker (small blind) folded on the Turn

I wussed out. My reasoning at the time was that I read my opponent as tight enough to only make a move like this with the nuts. 8800 was too much for him to risk. Maybe I was wrong. I wanted to keep second place and try to outplay these guys. I guess we'll never know what he had.

I ended up losing a couple of close all-in races with the short stack. He doubled up twice from me and once from "Zacsat". I ended up the short stack and lost a desperation race to take 3rd cash.

The majority of y'all said "call", but would it have been any different if it were the final table of an MTT with $500, $300, and $200 as the top 3 prizes and I had the same tight, semi-solid read on him?
 
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S

scifell

Guest
He's in the Big blind so if he has a flush it's very likely a worse flush than yours.

Of the 11 clubs you haven't seen, 2 are higher than yours. Assuming he does have a flush, the chances he holds a better one are 1-(9/11)*(8/10) = 35%.

Actually, there are three clubs on the board and two in his hand [he has seen 5 clubs, rather than 2], so *if* he has a flush, the chance he has a better one is 1-(7/9)*(6/8) = 42%. But the chance he was dealt two clubs at all, given what we know, is (9/46)*(8/45) = 3.5%. So if we ignore his play and go purely by statistics, the chance that he has a better flush than you is (.035)*(.42) = 1.5%.


But really, I think the key here is that he probably doesnt have a great read on your hand. He has no reason to believe you have a flush, and an all in move like this is more likely to scare you away than anything else- and why would he want to do that? [Unless he doesnt think you are capable of folding top pair, in which case, boy did you show him!] I think you have to call here, and yes to calling in the bigger MTT as well.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
First off, I think FP put it perfectly; he probably has a hidden 2 pair or set, and is slowplaying it. This is an automatic call from me.

The majority of y'all said "call", but would it have been any different if it were the final table of an MTT with $500, $300, and $200 as the top 3 prizes and I had the same tight, semi-solid read on him?
Nope, still a call from me. Considering he's a tight 'semi-solid' player, he'd probably be loosening up by this time, and raising any ace or king suited, especially with a fold and a limp from the SB in front of him.

Considering the way this hand was played, I honestly put him on 84, Q8, or maybe 44 for a set. That or a smaller flush. Of course a higher flush, or even a straight flush is possible, but #1 I think he'd have bet smaller for value instead of just pushing with it, and #2 I really don't think this is probable enough to actually fold your hand over. With all due respect, I see folding here as pretty weak-tight. Either that or you just overthought the situation and tricked yourself into folding a very strong hand.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Actually, there are three clubs on the board and two in his hand [he has seen 5 clubs, rather than 2], so *if* he has a flush, the chance he has a better one is 1-(7/9)*(6/8) = 42%.
You're right! My mistake.

But really, I think the key here is that he probably doesnt have a great read on your hand. He has no reason to believe you have a flush, and an all in move like this is more likely to scare you away than anything else- and why would he want to do that?
Good point as well - I think he's put Mr Sticker on Qx and is trying to scare him - could be a total bluff.
 
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