Push on flop?

[ph_il]

Should I have pushed or raised more on the flop?
------------
full tilt poker Game #3404550231: $5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (26021453) Table 6 - 200/400 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:03:40 ET - 2007/08/29
Seat 1: stevening (15 745)
Seat 2: Philthy (12 490)
Seat 3: tkforu (28 030)
Seat 4: erieangler (10 625)
Seat 5: cc12b (7 455)
Seat 6: PopLolly (6 400)
Seat 7: DIDDS (5 000)
Seat 8: bluefeather68 (5 470)
Seat 9: Lev Trotsky (12 955)
stevening antes 50
Philthy antes 50
tkforu antes 50
erieangler antes 50
cc12b antes 50
PopLolly antes 50
DIDDS antes 50
bluefeather68 antes 50
Lev Trotsky antes 50
DIDDS posts the small blind of 200
bluefeather68 posts the big blind of 400
The button is in seat #6

Holecards:
Dealt to Philthy [

]
Lev Trotsky folds
stevening folds
Philthy raises to 1,600
tkforu calls 1,600
erieangler folds
cc12b folds
PopLolly folds
DIDDS folds
bluefeather68 folds

Flop:
[

]
Philthy has 15 seconds left to act
Philthy bets 2 800
tkforu raises to 5 600
Philthy raises to 10 840 and is all in
tkforu calls 5 240
Philthy shows [

]
tkforu shows [

]

Turn :
[

] [

]

River:
[

] [

]
Philthy shows a pair of Aces
tkforu shows a flush Ace high
tkforu wins the pot (25 930) with a flush Ace high
Philthy : aaaaaaah
Philthy stands up

SUMMARY:
Total pot 25 930 | Rake 0
Board:
[

]
Seat 1: stevening folded before the Flop
Seat 2: Philthy showed [

] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: tkforu showed [

] and won (25 930) with a flush Ace high
Seat 4: erieangler folded before the Flop
Seat 5: cc12b folded before the Flop
Seat 6: PopLolly (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: DIDDS (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: bluefeather68 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 9: Lev Trotsky folded before the Flop

 

[pigpen02]

You are not going to get somebody with a nut flush draw and second pair to fold on the flop. He was probably wondering how he could get you to bet more.

 

[OzExorcist]

You are not going to get somebody with a nut flush draw and second pair to fold on the flop. He was probably wondering how he could get you to bet more.

Depends on the player - especially with an ace on the board, not everybody's looking to get their money in on middle pair with a flush draw, nuts or not. At this point, they know they're probably behind with just a pair of 10s, and they're only about 35% to make their flush. Without a read to the contrary, this is not a +EV play.

Pre-flop, the pot's 1050 before we even start betting. Given everybody else folded and the only hand that stuck around was KTo... so there's probably a fair chance you would've taken the pot there and then if you had've just shoved. You're not in real good position, and picking up the blinds and antes probably isn't a bad result.

 

[bw07507]

Depends on the player - especially with an ace on the board, not everybody's looking to get their money in on middle pair with a flush draw, nuts or not. At this point, they know they're probably behind with just a pair of 10s, and they're only about 35% to make their flush. Without a read to the contrary, this is not a +EV play.

Pre-flop, the pot's 1050 before we even start betting. Given everybody else folded and the only hand that stuck around was KTo... so there's probably a fair chance you would've taken the pot there and then if you had've just shoved. You're not in real good position, and picking up the blinds and antes probably isn't a bad result.

Personally, I dont think open shoving 30+BBs is a good move ever. The preflop raise is fine.

Even if you shove this flop, hes probably still calling. If he figures the K and 10 are live its not a bad call. I think you played the hand fine.

 

[pigpen02]

35% to make the flush in two cards? I get about 48% to make the flush or trips. I could be wrong.

 

[OzExorcist]

True - I'm not necessarily saying that shoving would be the ideal move, just that I thought everybody folding would've been the likely outcome.

Played for value, I'd agree the pre-flop bet was fine - the hand just ran into a problematic board...

 

[OzExorcist]

35% to make the flush in two cards? I get about 48% to make the flush or trips. I could be wrong.

Adding the two remaining tens in the board for trips gives 11 outs, which is 41.72% for the turn and river

 

[pigpen02]

11/47 + 11/46 = .473 or 47.3% Am I doing this wrong?

 

[mrsnake3695]

It was a $5 buy-in. He wasnt' going anywhere no matter what was bet. Especially considering he called a preflop raise with K-10 off suit.

 

[joeeagles]

I actually think the PF raise could be smaller. It's not wrong to raise 4 BB's but in most cases its unnecessary. More importantly, we always need to keep in mind what our stack is in relation to the blinds when we size a PF raise. It's about making sure you have FE in the early streets. When you have 30 BB's you shouldn't raise more than the standard 3 BB's, actually it's not a bad idea to keep it smaller (like 2 1/2 BB's).

There are many reasons for it. The more you put in, the more easily you get committed if someone 3 bets, for one. Another big reason is the amount of your c-bet if you get called. Lets look at this hand. Because the PF raise was 1600, on the flop the pot is now 4250. Had the raise been 2 1/2 BB's, pot would be 3050. When the pot is 4250, your c-bet needs to be around 2400, when it's 3050, you can c-bet 1600.

So, raising 4 BB's PF and c-betting 2400 has you throwing 4k into this pot, where instead raising 1k and c-betting 1600 has you in for only 2.6k. This is a huge difference, and it's extremely important when you're raising in EP since it's likely that if you get called you'll be first to act. Even if you miss, on most boards you'll need to c-bet, and in the long run the less committed you are to the pot the better it always is.

This is not to say that a different bet sizing throughout the hand would have saved Philthy from busting, but I just don't see the reason to raise 4 BB's PF. Also, why make a 2/3 pot c-bet? Again, it's not terrible to do so, but this whole line has us putting more and more in this pot and closing all our escape hatches (we're losing FE too fast), which, on a board with 3 of the same suit, we shouldn't be doing.

To answer the flop question, I wouldn't push, and I probably would have bet 2400 rather than 2800. Either way I doubt it makes a difference. He has a big stack and appearently he feels comfortable to risk 10k on his hand, even if you push the flop. I wouldn't worry about it, I doubt you could have changed his mind whichever way you go.