Pocket pairs and fearless bets

[scifell]

Ok, so you are very deep into a large tournament and you have a slightly larger than average chip stack at a full table. You find pocket 9's in a late position, with only one call in front of you. For the sake of argument, let us suppose you make a healthy raise here (since that is what I did). Everyone else folds, and the one caller (now out of position against you), thinks for a while and then calls. The flop comes

6 2 Q

of three different suits. The other person checks to you. What kind of play do you make here and why?


Personally, I was of the belief (based upon how he had been playing) that he would have either a small to medium pair or moderate sized suited connectors. I decided that he either had little to nothing and would fold to a bet or he had a medium pair and that if I moved all in he might get overconfident in his pair thinking I am trying to steal the pot (the only way I believed I could make any money if I had him beat). So I moved in, and he called showing pocket 2's. Now I think I was a bit too hasty and could have made a better decision here. Perhaps I could have just checked through this, come over the top if he bets and fold if he comes back at me? IF I had the best hand here, I dont think a smaller bet would have accomplished anything for me... am I wrong to think that?

 

[Effexor]

Why on earth would you go all in with a pocket pair if there are overs on the board? AQ / KQ / even QJ or QT are not unreasonable holdings

Depending on the size of the blinds / pot / yours and his stacks, I'd make a 1/2 to 3/4 pot size bet to see where you stand. If he calls, I check fold.


Next time post the hand history, it'll make everything a whole lot easier.

 

[KerouacsDog]

for me its a two-thirds of the pot probe bet to see where you stand.
Im with Effexor on this, re. overs on board. He could have Q-anything and be way ahead of you.
People overvalue pocket pairs, particularly middle to low, TT to 22. If theres overcards on the board, you can almost guarantee someone has paired. Hence the probe bet. Lets you know where you stand.

 

[scifell]

Why on earth would you go all in with a pocket pair if there are overs on the board? AQ / KQ / even QJ or QT are not unreasonable holdings

*shrug* I suppose it is possibe, but I strongly suspected that he would have been raising with hands like AQ and KQ preflop, and that he would have bet right out on the flop with something like QJ or QT. And my read was correct- he had a small pair. The only problem was that he just happened to hit his third 2.

Depending on the size of the blinds / pot / yours and his stacks, I'd make a 1/2 to 3/4 pot size bet to see where you stand. If he calls, I check fold.

I really wanted to have a chance to make more money from him IF I had him beat- I dont think a bet like this wouldn't give me that chance.

Next time post the hand history, it'll make everything a whole lot easier.

Im not sure what you mean.

 

[scifell]

People overvalue pocket pairs, particularly middle to low, TT to 22. If theres overcards on the board, you can almost guarantee someone has paired. Hence the probe bet. Lets you know where you stand.

That was the prupose of my bet- the hope that he *would* put too much faith in a smaller to middle pair, which I had beat. I guess it just makes me feel uncomfortable to always play scared as you suggest. I always want to ask "if I have the best hand here (and I suspect I do), how can I make the most money?" rather than "there is some chance I am beat here, how do I protect myself?"

I know that both questions need to be asked, and there needs to be a balance here... Im just trying to find that balance.

 

[Bombjack]

It's always possible someone has hit a monster when they check to you, so it's a bit daft going all-in when you don't have a particularly strong hand. Bet, definitely, but don't put all your chips in when you don't know how strong he is. He'll most likely only call if he has you beat.

 

[Effexor]

On Full Tilt:

Go to options => Hand History

Check the "Save my hand histories" box

Pick a location to save. I created a folder on my desktop called Hand Histories and chose that folder location. Easy to find that way since I go through my HH's often.

Then when you play the hand histories will be saved and you'll have text files that contain things like this:


full tilt poker Game #818838353: Table Hills Center - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:48:40 ET - 2006/07/21
Seat 1: Effexor ($8.75)
Seat 2: shmitts ($3.55)
Seat 3: Mustang272 ($11.40)
Seat 4: BIN WON ($2.25)
Seat 5: Stealth II ($3.20)
Seat 6: Jiiri ($14.20)
Seat 7: fmdt2000 ($10.40)
Seat 8: studiodrummer ($3.85)
Seat 9: Loser23 ($6.20)
shmitts posts the small blind of $0.05
Mustang272 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Effexor [7s 8s]
BIN WON raises to $0.20
Stealth II calls $0.20
Jiiri folds
fmdt2000 folds
studiodrummer folds
Loser23 folds
Effexor calls $0.20
shmitts folds
Mustang272 calls $0.10
*** FLOP *** [4h 8d 3s]
Mustang272 checks
BIN WON bets $0.50
Stealth II calls $0.50
Effexor calls $0.50
Mustang272 folds
*** TURN *** [4h 8d 3s] [8h]
BIN WON bets $0.80
Stealth II folds
Effexor raises to $1.60
BIN WON has 15 seconds left to act
BIN WON calls $0.75, and is all in
Effexor shows [7s 8s]
BIN WON shows [Kh Kd]
Uncalled bet of $0.05 returned to Effexor
*** RIVER *** [4h 8d 3s 8h] [Kc]
Effexor shows three of a kind, Eights
BIN WON shows a full house, Kings full of Eights
BIN WON wins the pot ($4.95) with a full house, Kings full of Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $5.45 | Rake $0.50
Board: [4h 8d 3s 8h Kc]
Seat 1: Effexor (button) showed [7s 8s] and lost with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 2: shmitts (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Mustang272 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: BIN WON showed [Kh Kd] and won ($4.95) with a full house, Kings full of Eights
Seat 5: Stealth II folded on the Turn
Seat 6: Jiiri didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: fmdt2000 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: studiodrummer didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: Loser23 didn't bet (folded)

Hopefully yours has more of the winning types lol


As to the original post, I guess my only real complaint is the all-in with overs on the board. He very well may have had a read on you that you are aggressive and was planning on a check raise while holding KQ/ QJ / QT type hand. I have no problem if you had led out with a reasonable bet, even called it down to the end. But putting your tourney life on the line on a pair of 9's is too much of a gamble.

 

[quazar66]

On this hand make a small bet 1/3 the pot and see if he calls or raises. If the next card is a blank do the same and repeat on the river.