Overpair vs. Bad Turn Card

[The Shrog]

This is a hand from the Triple Shootout w/ Replay...is there any hand besides maybe a 77 here that we beat?

pokerstars Game #22602671379: Tournament #123475093, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round II, Level II (15/30) - 2008/12/03 22:20:20 ET
Table '123475093 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: RobDaBank (1605 in chips)
Seat 2: THE SHR0G (1315 in chips)
Seat 3: uscakeeper1 (1475 in chips)
Seat 4: zwilly (1960 in chips)
Seat 6: Yorbn14728 (1645 in chips)
Seat 7: ACES_J0E#2 (1360 in chips)
Seat 8: voyager9 (2795 in chips)
Seat 9: Rakade Lisa (1345 in chips)
zwilly: posts small blind 15
Yorbn14728: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to THE SHR0G [Qd Qc]
ACES_J0E#2: folds
voyager9: folds
Rakade Lisa: folds
RobDaBank: calls 30
THE SHR0G: raises 90 to 120
uscakeeper1: calls 120
zwilly: folds
Yorbn14728: folds
RobDaBank: calls 90
*** FLOP *** [4s 2d 5c]
RobDaBank: checks
THE SHR0G: bets 300
uscakeeper1: calls 300
RobDaBank: calls 300
*** TURN *** [4s 2d 5c] [6c]
RobDaBank: bets 1185 and is all-in

 

[S93]

This is just a gross spot.almost all draws got there on the turn.
Vilian range is pretty much just sets,straights,combo draws and the ocasional 77-99.
I think you have to fold here.....and poker stove says:

Board: 4s 2d 5c 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.173% 34.37% 02.80% 1104 90.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 62.827% 60.02% 02.80% 1928 90.00 { 99-22, 87s, 76s, 65s, 43s, 76o, 65o, 43o }

Yeah pretty clear fold,still kinda ewwwe after geting quarter of your stack in.


Edit:Realized vilians range also haves a few complete bluffs in it so figured i add it.

Board: 4s 2d 5c 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.723% 40.09% 02.76% 518270 35635.00 { QcQd }
Hand 1: 57.277% 54.69% 02.76% 707000 35638.00 { 99-22, KQs, JTs, 87s, 76s, 65s, 43s, JTo, 87o, 76o, 65o, 43o }

doesnt change much but cant be sure with out history so i say clear fold exepted if vilian haves been bluffing latly witch asume he hasnt since u didnt mention it so yeah fold

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

sindri, i don't think we can assume an unknown is limp-calling preflop with stuff like 43s and 65o. even in a $5 donkament the average player isn't quite that bad.

it's a pretty silly bluff into two players on that sort of board if it is a bluff, so i give him credit for a hand like 33 or a flopped set and ditch it.