nut flush draw, on rags board

[Shandy]

pokerstars Game #9912772793: Tournament #50207927, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit -
Level IV (50/100) - 2007/05/14 - 18:00:48 (ET)
Table '50207927 88' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: 222shay222 (3215 in chips)
Seat 2: mymatedave (4375 in chips)
Seat 3: vittoriav (3510 in chips)
Seat 4: JaiDuJeu (1650 in chips)
Seat 5: NickdaNutz (3065 in chips)
Seat 6: Bjorn_I_Hi (1385 in chips)
222shay222: posts small blind 50
mymatedave: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 222shay222 [Kh Ah]
vittoriav: folds
JaiDuJeu: folds
NickdaNutz: raises 200 to 300
Bjorn_I_Hi: folds
222shay222: calls 250
mymatedave: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [5h 2d 7h]
222shay222: checks
mymatedave: checks
NickdaNutz: bets 600


Just wondering if this is an auto push- or do we call hoping to hit on the turn. And would anyone have reraised this preflop.

 

[jayneseo]

I definately wouldve reraised preflop. The cutoff raise could be with ATC and then just a call cause the BB to call with practically ATC as well. I wouldn't push the flop either, unless you have a good read on villian.

 

[blankoblanco]

I wouldn't push the flop either, unless you have a good read on villian.

Why not? Once we've gotten into this spot (I agree that we should re-raise PF against most villains), I think it's a pretty standard shove. He raised pre-flop and both players checked to him on an all rag flop, so he could very well be c-betting.

Fold equity + what's already in the pot + even when he calls we're probably about a coinflip against his calling range + negates our positional disadvantage.

I dislike calling here when we're out of position and not likely to see the river for the right price.

 

[Lo-Dog]

First off I would reraise PF most of the time here.

What range do you put the villian on?

Do you think he is just c-betting (bluff)?

How often do you think villian will fold to a reraise.

Without any reads or info to tell me otherwise I see a fold being best, followed by a reraise with calling the worst option.

Now if you can tell me that villian often c-bets with air or draws or is very loose or some kind of info I might be inclined to reraise.

 

[jayneseo]

Still early in tourney, I don't like all my chips in the middle on a draw.

 

[Shandy]

I didn't have any reads on the opponent- he had only recently moved to table- since it was 6 handed i felt that his pf raising range was pretty wide, and since i had quite a decent stack i didn't really want to reraise pf as if called or reraised, i would face difficult decisions, i felt by just calling pf, that i could see the flop, and if i hit it, i could play from there, if not i don't mind folding ak after putting 300 in. When the flop came, i felt it was pretty much perfect for the check raise, as really i think we can count 15 outs- 9 hearts, and 3 aces, 3 kings, although if one of them is playing with A5,7,2, then the 3 A are not outs. Since most will do a continuation bet when checked to i felt that the continuation bet would actually show weakness, rather than strength, because if he has hit a set, he is going to let us catch up a little.
After the 600 bet i felt the only move was the push all in- does anyone disagree, or agree with my thinking here?

 

[dj11]

To me, it looks like you are assuming a sane player.

I'm with Jay here, I don't like all my chips in the middle on a draw this early in the tournament. And with no read on villian, folding looks easy.

This of course is moot cause you suggest you went all in, or saw that as the only move. There is almost never an 'only move'. Only time I can think of is when you get real short stacked and the only move is to push with AA.

 

[ChuckTs]

Yes, I definitely reraise PF. Shorthanded, we have an absolute monster, though I don't like being OOP for the rest of the hand.

As for the flop, nut flush draw + two overs is more than enough to get all my chips in the middle with. Calling is just about the most passive thing you can do. What if you call and see a 5♣ on the turn? or a Q♠?. We have tons of fold equity, and we're favourites over anything except KK+, Ax or Kx where x has paired the board, or a set/2 pair. If you're not pushing this, well then you're just a pussy-footer.

Defend those blinds, people!!!

 

[joosebuck]

runner gutshot + flush + over draw with fold equity + oop = shove

 

[jayneseo]

Thought you didn't like coinflips in MTT? Thats what this is and I still say it's too early in tourney for coinflips, but that's my style.


Side note: If I am drinking this is a shove!


Ps: I'm drinking now too, so disregard all I say

 

[ChuckTs]

I think "Never call off your stack on a coinflip" is the saying you're thinking of.

We have tons of fold equity here, and can force a lot of the hands we'd normally be coinflipping against to fold. As played, this is an auto-push in my book.


lol nice signature by the way

 

[joeeagles]

After the 600 bet i felt the only move was the push all in- does anyone disagree, or agree with my thinking here?

Totally agree Shandy, this is an absolute push 100% of the time.

 

[blankoblanco]

Without any reads or info to tell me otherwise I see a fold being best, followed by a reraise with calling the worst option.

Come on, you'd really fold this here if you were in that spot? I don't think you would. Readless this is just never a fold. In fact it would take some kind of absurdly strong read of strength (his range being primarily set, AA/KK) for me to fold here, which is pretty much impossible to pick up from the action so far.

You'll never see a pro fold in a situation like this one, and it's not for no good reason. It's just way too weak and passing up healthy +EV.

I hate calling OOP here, but I might even like it better than folding to a likely c-bet with our hand. Not that it really matters because I think pushing is far and away the best option.

 

[Shandy]

Hi thanks for the replys. As you have gathered i did push, and did end up winning the hand, was just wondering if it was the correct play, will take into account everyones point of reraising pf when oop, didn't really think about being oop at the time i played it. Well results are posted below, and personally i think the bb made a worse decision by not reraising pf.

PokerStars Game #9912772793: Tournament #50207927, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit -
Level IV (50/100) - 2007/05/14 - 18:00:48 (ET)
Table '50207927 88' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: 222shay222 (3215 in chips)
Seat 2: mymatedave (4375 in chips)
Seat 3: vittoriav (3510 in chips)
Seat 4: JaiDuJeu (1650 in chips)
Seat 5: NickdaNutz (3065 in chips)
Seat 6: Bjorn_I_Hi (1385 in chips)
222shay222: posts small blind 50
mymatedave: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 222shay222 [Kh Ah]
vittoriav: folds
JaiDuJeu: folds
NickdaNutz: raises 200 to 300
Bjorn_I_Hi: folds
222shay222: calls 250
mymatedave: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [5h 2d 7h]
222shay222: checks
mymatedave: checks
NickdaNutz: bets 600
222shay222: raises 2315 to 2915 and is all-in
mymatedave: raises 1160 to 4075 and is all-in
NickdaNutz: folds
*** TURN *** [5h 2d 7h] [Ad]
*** RIVER *** [5h 2d 7h Ad] [9c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
222shay222: shows [Kh Ah] (a pair of Aces)
mymatedave: shows [Jh Jd] (a pair of Jacks)
222shay222 collected 7330 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 7330 | Rake 0
Board [5h 2d 7h Ad 9c]
Seat 1: 222shay222 (small blind) showed [Kh Ah] and won (7330) with a pair of
Aces
Seat 2: mymatedave (big blind) showed [Jh Jd] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: vittoriav folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: JaiDuJeu folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: NickdaNutz folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Bjorn_I_Hi (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[bill118911]

ya woulda preraised with big slick and woulda pushed a lil more after the flop hoping ppl dropped thats how i play big slick

 

[pedroman7]

i would say reraise preflop is a good move, and
On the flop... you very well could have the best and the best draw at that point. PUSH IT!!!

 

[Lo-Dog]

Yes I would fold here if I had no reason to believe it to be a bluff, or didnt think there was a good chance at the fold. To make a push a winning play the there must be a significant amount of times villian is bluffin and/or will fold. (this is what I believe anyway, ill try the math later)

I got knocked out of a tourney last night on almost the exact situation, I did push after villians raise but most people were folding to my reraises and I knew there was a good chance he would fold. This was also the final table of the tourney not very early on. I don't see risking all my chips so early on a draw without some assurance.

Call me weak if you like but early on with only a draw, I will wait for a better spot and happily outplay my opponents later.

Come on, you'd really fold this here if you were in that spot? I don't think you would. Readless this is just never a fold. In fact it would take some kind of absurdly strong read of strength (his range being primarily set, AA/KK) for me to fold here, which is pretty much impossible to pick up from the action so far.

You'll never see a pro fold in a situation like this one, and it's not for no good reason. It's just way too weak and passing up healthy +EV.

I hate calling OOP here, but I might even like it better than folding to a likely c-bet with our hand. Not that it really matters because I think pushing is far and away the best option.

 

[joeeagles]

Yes I would fold here if I had no reason to believe it to be a bluff, or didnt think there was a good chance at the fold. To make a push a winning play the there must be a significant amount of times villian is bluffin and/or will fold. (this is what I believe anyway, ill try the math later)

I got knocked out of a tourney last night on almost the exact situation, I did push after villians raise but most people were folding to my reraises and I knew there was a good chance he would fold. This was also the final table of the tourney not very early on. I don't see risking all my chips so early on a draw without some assurance.

Call me weak if you like but early on with only a draw, I will wait for a better spot and happily outplay my opponents later

No offense lodog, but this is a push 100% of the time. You keep looking at this as just a plain draw but it is much more than that. The way this hand was played you will have 12 to 15 outs almost every time, unless opponent hit a set or has AA which are unlikely (although not impossible). Even if he has KK you still have 12 outs.

All in all, when you consider the range of your opponent there are just too many hands that he can have that make you the favorite (15 outs) to win this hand if he calls the push (JJ was only one of them). His bet could also be a c-bet and you're already ahead of him. Being OOP excludes the option of plain calling his raise and the shove also gives you an opportunity to end the hand right there. There is the small risk of drawing to 9 outs, but that is the worst case scenario and the most unlikely, since that would happen only against a set or AA, so if called you are never drawing dead.

When you try the math later, as you say, the main focus is considering all his possible starting hands and where you stand against them. The conclusion can only be one: easy push.

 

[Lo-Dog]

No offense taken, except the jab about doing the math, I will do it but not while I am at work.

I never said a push was bad. I just don't see it in this circumstance, with our tourney life on the line being worth it.

Its level 4, we have lots of chips, and villian has us covered.

What I like to see: I have villian covered or am shortstacked myself and need to make a move.

meh I don't even know why I am defending this position I already stated that when a very similar situation happened to me I pushed.

Just feel that so early on its not worth being knocked out on a coinflip, IF I HAVE NO OTHER INFORMATION TO GO ON.

 

[NineLions]

Well results are posted below, and personally i think the bb made a worse decision by not reraising pf.

What do people think of this? I think you're right; AK can be easier to get away from if you totally miss the flop, but JJ can be awfully tough to play post flop. It's a good hand for a squeeze play, no?


But does that mean if he had re-raised, you were folding your AK?

?