$ NL HE MTT: Pair of 99, close to the bubble, to pay or not to pay?

[Gritz18]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Freeroll

1. Freeroll

Currency

$

This hand took place in this afternoon's $250 Freeroll on Pokertars.

I was tempted to call, but as I was close to the bubble I thought Villain wouldn't go all-in with any hand, so I decided to fold.

What do you think, was I too conservative?🤔

Thank you Cesar.🙂


pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

pltelles (UTG): 35,180 (18 bb)
PRrock1 (UTG+1): 55,981 (28 bb)
Gritz18 (MP): 39,344 (20 bb)
leleka1024 (MP+1): 900 (0 bb)
kunkgreen (LP): 2,763 (1 bb)
R.Melnyk77 (CO): 18,420 (9 bb)
pasha.ua.31 (BU): 26,173 (13 bb)
aissam18 (SB): 47,640 (24 bb)
bavovnytko2022 (BB): 33,234 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,800) Hero (Gritz18) is MP with 9♣ 9♠
2 players fold, Gritz18 (MP) raises to 4,000, 5 players fold, bavovnytko2022 (BB) 3-bets to 33,034 (all-in), Gritz18 (MP) folds

Total pot: 10,800
bavovnytko2022 (BB) wins 10,800

 

[ms_attack]

No it was a good fold, in this situation and close of the bubble,
You would have a very high probability of having a coin flip. A deeper pair might be possible, but the risk of calling is too high.
You would risk your tournament with only a Pair of 9

 

[hilary antonik filho]

You acted right, I would maybe go all in, is that sometimes give me the 5 minutes and throw in the towel

 

[ADRI7HO]

In this case, I wouldn't have gone in with such a big chip before the bubble.
Going into a coinflip hand with relatively good chips would have been unnecessary.

 

[sumdumguy]

Good fold colleague, it was a good position but the theory says not until I burst the bubble and moved on to the items, I already passed a few days ago and learned.

 

[Hospedar]

There was 6 villains to talk after you. A 99 hand is a quite good hand to play, but I think that GTO would make you fold every hand (even AA), except if you are the chip leader or if you are playing against really small stacks, specially IP (as you were with 20bb, you should shoved against who were with 7bb or less, I think).

If the villain knows and respect the ICM and the bubble, you need to respect the ICM too. But, if the villain don't know and don't respect it, you need to decide for yourself if it worth to play or to fold...



As I said, I think that GTO would said to fold at your turn to play. But, as you did a small PFR, you should hope they give up or just call your bet.

Villain probably bluffed or semi-bluffed against you (or shoved a hand with less equity), but you did very well folding his jam.

At my perspectives and at my learnings, you did an error but, after this, a good choice, congratulations.

 

[kunkgreen]

Easy fold... the stupidest things in poker happen in these spots! haha
Lately even AA has been scamming a lot of people out of their money! haha

But sometimes we can take more risks depending on the objectives...

 

[fundiver199]

I was tempted to call, but as I was close to the bubble I thought Villain wouldn't go all-in with any hand, so I decided to fold.

The fact, it was close to the bubble, gave him more fold equity. So if he has any idea, what he is doing, his range is wider, that it would normally be, nor narrower. Raise-folding 99 for 17BB is very exploitative, so unless its literally life changing money, or the opponent is a known nit, this is a call.

 

[Gritz18]

Easy fold... the stupidest things in poker happen in these spots! haha

You know when you smell a Pokerstars prank, that's what happened here, so I decided to give up, it could be that the villain had a worse hand, we'll never know.😁

 

[tagece]

No option but fold here. If your opponent is not a maniac, you would face a coin flip or worse in this hand.

 

[kunkgreen]

You know when you smell a Pokerstars prank, that's what happened here, so I decided to give up, it could be that the villain had a worse hand, we'll never know.😁

Have no doubts!!! haha

If you happen to be in a similar situation or if a QQ+ comes from the button in a bubble situation... we know it's these rotten softars testing whether we're more idiots than the rest of the table.

Without much study points but just in everyday observation... how many times do you usually see the best hand come out to the villain with a bigger stack opening any two cards?!

 

[Gritz18]

Raise-folding 99 for 17BB is very exploitative, so unless its literally life changing money, or the opponent is a known nit, this is a call.

I agree with your thoughts on the strategic aspect of the game, but as I am a freeroller, my poker world is different from yours.

A few rounds later I managed to double my chips and managed to come in 13th place, this money won won't change my life, but that's the life of a freeroller.

I just didn't make it to the final table, due to bad luck or because I wasn't supposed to, see my last hand below.

Jogue novamente esta mão no CardsChat

 

[Tadi]

The right decision. You got a penalty for beating me when I had AA

 

[rock0001]

its a reasonable fold but calling would also be a good choice sometimes because villain can have hands like 88, 77, 66 or aq, ak or even kq, so it would depend on villain poker style whether to call or fold in this spot.

 

[eetenor]

This hand took place in this afternoon's $250 Freeroll on Pokertars.

I was tempted to call, but as I was close to the bubble I thought Villain wouldn't go all-in with any hand, so I decided to fold.

What do you think, was I too conservative?🤔

Thank you Cesar.🙂


PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

pltelles (UTG): 35,180 (18 bb)
PRrock1 (UTG+1): 55,981 (28 bb)
Gritz18 (MP): 39,344 (20 bb)
leleka1024 (MP+1): 900 (0 bb)
kunkgreen (LP): 2,763 (1 bb)
R.Melnyk77 (CO): 18,420 (9 bb)
pasha.ua.31 (BU): 26,173 (13 bb)
aissam18 (SB): 47,640 (24 bb)
bavovnytko2022 (BB): 33,234 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,800) Hero (Gritz18) is MP with 9♣ 9♠
2 players fold, Gritz18 (MP) raises to 4,000, 5 players fold, bavovnytko2022 (BB) 3-bets to 33,034 (all-in), Gritz18 (MP) folds

Total pot: 10,800
bavovnytko2022 (BB) wins 10,800

GTO WIAZRD---free version BB is shoving 8% of hands and we call off 77+------------It is a good exercise to open up Equilab also free --take the GTO range put it in and then remove or add hands to estimate a non GTO V range and then find out the equity of 99 I lowered the shove range 1% included AA which is not gto removed all Kx suited hands and 99 has 49.7% vs that tighter range- tightened the range another .5% and 99 has 48.12%

You need 43% to call
88+,AQs+,AQo+ if this is the V's range you can fold - if it is this 88+,ATs+,AJo+ you call--

Fun with free poker Apps should be my new show on youtube

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[eetenor]

This hand took place in this afternoon's $250 Freeroll on Pokertars.

I was tempted to call, but as I was close to the bubble I thought Villain wouldn't go all-in with any hand, so I decided to fold.

What do you think, was I too conservative?🤔

Thank you Cesar.🙂


PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 1,000/2,000 (200 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

pltelles (UTG): 35,180 (18 bb)
PRrock1 (UTG+1): 55,981 (28 bb)
Gritz18 (MP): 39,344 (20 bb)
leleka1024 (MP+1): 900 (0 bb)
kunkgreen (LP): 2,763 (1 bb)
R.Melnyk77 (CO): 18,420 (9 bb)
pasha.ua.31 (BU): 26,173 (13 bb)
aissam18 (SB): 47,640 (24 bb)
bavovnytko2022 (BB): 33,234 (17 bb)

Pre-Flop: (4,800) Hero (Gritz18) is MP with 9♣ 9♠
2 players fold, Gritz18 (MP) raises to 4,000, 5 players fold, bavovnytko2022 (BB) 3-bets to 33,034 (all-in), Gritz18 (MP) folds

Total pot: 10,800
bavovnytko2022 (BB) wins 10,800

Near the bubble we want to consider if the V is shoving more hands than GTO hoping to get folds--They may shove all suited AXhands which GTO does not -they may shove all pairs etc etc If we do not have notes on this specific V- We really want to use player pool data in a spot like this- if V are playing for the min cash and shoving for value only- not folds then the 99 is a good fold in this spot

If the V range looks like this---22+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo====easy call--- we will see this type of shove range from some weaker V

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[Toruk Makto]

Belo fold... Hoje no $100 CC free, praticamente na bolha, eu, pequeno contra Big, fui ALL-IN com KJof, com 10bb, Big pagou com 21bb e fui eliminado! Ele tinha AJof. Fui muito agressivo? 🤔

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[fundiver199]

I agree with your thoughts on the strategic aspect of the game, but as I am a freeroller, my poker world is different from yours.

The fact, you have nothing at risk other than your time, makes it even more of a call. Unless of course you think, people are never 3-betting light in a freeroll.

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[georgi krastev]

I think it was an nice fold. (Notes about the players sometimes help in these situations.)

Although there may be a call here. (I would make that call if I were on a loose streak.)

Whatever, gg.

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[fundiver199]

Near the bubble we want to consider if the V is shoving more hands than GTO hoping to get folds--They may shove all suited AXhands which GTO does not -they may shove all pairs etc etc

If the Villain defend their BB by calling, pot will be around 5,5BB, and they only have 15BB left. Hero have them covered and can apply a lot of pressure postflop, which many players find pretty uncomfortable. So there is a lot of incentive for the Villain to not have a calling range, as the solver does, but end the hand preflop by either folding or jamming with their perfect rejam stack. And in that case their jamming range is most likely something like any pair, any suited ace, any suited broadway, AJ+, KQ. Against that range 99 have 56% equity, which is enough to call. AKo also has 56% equity, so if we are not calling with 99, then we should not be calling with AKo either. Which just goes to show, how tight raise-folding 99 in this spot actually is.

If we do not have notes on this specific V- We really want to use player pool data in a spot like this

Sure. If Hero play these specific games regularly, he might (should) have a feel for, what the player pool is doing, and that might justify an exploitable line. For me I would use HUD-data, and if they were something like 17/13 with a 5% 3-bet over 800 hands, thats the kind of player, where I will make an exploit and drastically overfold to their 3-bets in a spot like this. But if the stats are something like 23/19 with an 11% 3-bet, then I beat them into the pot, and if I end up losing most of my stack, that dont worry me a minute. In this particular spot two players were so short, that if this was the actual bubble, we would still have a decent chance of cashing even with a 3BB stack.

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[eetenor]

If the Villain defend their BB by calling, pot will be around 5,5BB, and they only have 15BB left. Hero have them covered and can apply a lot of pressure postflop, which many players find pretty uncomfortable. So there is a lot of incentive for the Villain to not have a calling range, as the solver does, but end the hand preflop by either folding or jamming with their perfect rejam stack. And in that case their jamming range is most likely something like any pair, any suited ace, any suited broadway, AJ+, KQ. Against that range 99 have 56% equity, which is enough to call. AKo also has 56% equity, so if we are not calling with 99, then we should not be calling with AKo either. Which just goes to show, how tight raise-folding 99 in this spot actually is.

Sure. If Hero play these specific games regularly, he might (should) have a feel for, what the player pool is doing, and that might justify an exploitable line. For me I would use HUD-data, and if they were something like 17/13 with a 5% 3-bet over 800 hands, thats the kind of player, where I will make an exploit and drastically overfold to their 3-bets in a spot like this. But if the stats are something like 23/19 with an 11% 3-bet, then I beat them into the pot, and if I end up losing most of my stack, that dont worry me a minute. In this particular spot two players were so short, that if this was the actual bubble, we would still have a decent chance of cashing even with a 3BB stack.

Great points good share

The great thing about Player Pool Diaries is that we see soo much similarity in groups of players thru many buy-in levels that the diary is still a good guide even if you built it in the freerolls. The diary works well until we get to top of midstakes so long as we remember to take notes in game to classify the players and recognize the shift in talent in the player pools. Thus causing the diary to be effective vs a lower % of the field than in freerolls- but still useful

HUDS are very effective- if we do not have HUD info on specific players the HUD cannot help us- we have to fall back on PPD to reflect on human tendencies

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[kunkgreen]

These are the opponent's basic stats.
Apparently your 3-bet % on the button is quite high.



I usually prefer to hold my stack in this situation precisely to avoid making an open-raise followed by a fold, especially since it's UTG and we'll still have the whole table to talk about.

If it's me watching Gritz open from UTG close to the bubble, I know that he will probably be opening very strong hands and thus making me give up on possible 3-bet lights, especially with even chips.

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[fundiver199]

These are the opponent's basic stats.

With those stats 99 is definitely a snap call. But presumably OP did not have them during the hand.

A few rounds later I managed to double my chips and managed to come in 13th place

We dont evaluate decisions in poker based on, what happen in future hands.

I just didn't make it to the final table, due to bad luck or because I wasn't supposed to, see my last hand below.

Or maybe because you folded this hand instead of calling and ending up with 38,5BB instead of 18BB

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[feisas7991]

good fold. you are bleeding money there even if he jams reasonable range what would be considered by most guys.
they dont jam here worse than 55 and even if you include KQ and stuff you are still not doing good.
Good Luck

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/

 

[eetenor]

good fold. you are bleeding money there even if he jams reasonable range what would be considered by most guys.
they dont jam here worse than 55 and even if you include KQ and stuff you are still not doing good.
Good Luck

In my posts above I run thru ranges and the math-if you missed it check it out---
if it is this 88+,ATs+,AJo+ you call--this range includes no KX at all- That is a very tight range and it is still a correct call in Chip EV terms of course

change instances of free poker into a link to https://www.cardschat.com/strategy/free-online-poker-game/