$ NL HE MTT: With a set of 8, would you call in this situation?

[Gritz18]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Freeroll

1. Freeroll

Currency

$

This hand took place today in the Cardschat $100 freeroll on pokerstars.

I didn't think I could be winning, in this situation, despite the villain having bet pot on the river, either he had everything or he had nothing, I decided not to pay and see.

What is your analysis?🤔

Thank you Cesar.🙂

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (3 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Gallarado777 (UTG): 2,174 (72 bb)
sschafell (UTG+1): 2,661 (89 bb)
palomachitolina (MP): 1,952 (65 bb)
Tackiss30 (MP+1): 3,473 (116 bb)
0546474 (LP): 1,952 (65 bb)
Gritz18 (CO): 1,968 (66 bb)
wisg33 (BU): 1,790 (60 bb)
cdnman42 (SB): 2,168 (72 bb)
ehimz (BB): 1,972 (66 bb)

Pre-Flop: (72) Hero (Gritz18) is CO with 8♥ 8♦
5 players fold, Gritz18 (CO) raises to 60, 1 fold, cdnman42 (SB) calls 45, 1 fold

Flop: (177) 6♣ 8♠ 5♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) checks, Gritz18 (CO) bets 89, cdnman42 (SB) calls 89

Turn: (355) 3♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) checks, Gritz18 (CO) checks

River: (355) 7♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) bets 355, Gritz18 (CO) folds

Total pot: 355
cdnman42 (SB) wins 355

 

[dallam]

Preflop: From CO when you all have 60+bbs I prefer to open a bit bigger one not only 2bb without any table-knowledge of them.

Flop: That small raise pre did not do any favour for us by here. This is a very low flop which we probably not supposed to connect such a lot. But we hit top set so the main point will be how we can harvest the most from it now. As the pot is so small and it's a rainbow flop I'd not go with 50% of pot. Probably a check or a bigger raise is something to walk through and build an action.

Turn: Until that point you did not made mistakes, only essential steps on loosing value of your hand and then the made combination. And as long as the check could work on flop, it is totally unnecessary to do it here. Opponent did make a call on us, so why don't we go and continue to persuade this time?

River: I'm not amazed of opp's line as well, it's more likely you exposed yourself to this point that he is able to do this with even 4 or 9 in the hand, not even having the flush. And if opponent has these cards in the hand and we could suggest that he was on a draw - it could have definitely indicated to do that turn bet...

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre: Agree with above that 2.5x is better here off of 65 BBs ish but min raising is not terrible, just not as good as a bigger raise over the long run.

Flop: This is a coordinated board but at least rainbow. I would not go any lower than 45% pot here depending on opponents so I think half pot is good. When we get called here I already would be thinking what villain could have as far as floats and made hands. Straights are there even at this point but I would not be worried about them and thinking that since villain called flop (which is what I wanted) then we should be looking to extract more on the turn.

Turn: Card is another diamond so the board gets wetter and brings what little 4x there is to play so I would definitely be betting here and I would go on the bigger side. If villain just floated flop then you arent getting anything even if you bet 1/3rd (or check which I think is really bad) so I would be firing at least half pot here and probably more like 60%. We are too deep to be able to get all our chips in the middle without villain helping us so I would just look for value here and again, be in that 50-60% pot range on sizing. Checking here with this card is a big no-no.

River: Flush gets there and 4 to a straight gets there. If you know the villain well enough to know that they know any one pair hand here has tp fold and you look like you have that since you checked turn then this could be a bluff. There are enough value hands as well here with the board texture that we could easily be beat. So this would come down to how much I know villain, if they bluff or are capable then I highly consider calling. If they don't or I am readless I just fold here thinking a bad fold is better than a bad call. Either way, this is one of the reasons why you dont check the turn.

 

[fundiver199]

Pre
As others have said, a min-raise is very small with these stack sizes.

Flop
You flopped top set on a very coordinated board. However its a SB call, so hands like 74 or 97 should not be all that represented. Of course the opponent matter here, and cdnman42 is a regular poster to the forum, so I actually know a bit about him. And he is definitely not crazy loose, so I would put him on a somewhat tight range, when he call from SB. If you had that information also, it matters. Anyways the conclusion is, I am not to worried about being behind, and I would get more chips in the pot, before a bad board runout kill your action. If he has a hand like KJ, which did not connect with the board, he is folding even to a half pot bet, and I want to charge all his draws, pair+draw, two pair and worse sets more.

Turn
This card only brought in 42, which he really should not have ever. So I am still in value mode, and I bet big, maybe even an overbet.

River
This was a death card, not so much because backdoor diamonds came in, but more because any 9 or 4 now is a straight. The opponent lead out for full pot, and I think, this is an easy fold both against an unknown and against cdnman42. I dont think, he is bluffing here very often and definitely not betting worse for value.

 

[Gavincwb]

Pre flop: for me it was ok, but my standard is 2.2 and 3.5 for steal.

Flop: I would put 80% or more. The pot was still very small and at the beginning of the tournament we needed to accumulate chips.

Turn: The mistake was here, I would continue betting here, especially with this flush card that connects with everything he could have. In his view, you abandoned your hand on the turn, you showed weakness and any bet from him you would fold.

River: I see the worst card that could come, complete flush and straight. I would make the call following what I said about the turn, in his view you abandoned the hand and if he made the bet on the value of the pot he would take the hand.

 

[eetenor]

This hand took place today in the Cardschat $100 freeroll on Pokerstars.

I didn't think I could be winning, in this situation, despite the villain having bet pot on the river, either he had everything or he had nothing, I decided not to pay and see.

What is your analysis?🤔

Thank you Cesar.🙂

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - 15/30 (3 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

Gallarado777 (UTG): 2,174 (72 bb)
sschafell (UTG+1): 2,661 (89 bb)
palomachitolina (MP): 1,952 (65 bb)
Tackiss30 (MP+1): 3,473 (116 bb)
0546474 (LP): 1,952 (65 bb)
Gritz18 (CO): 1,968 (66 bb)
wisg33 (BU): 1,790 (60 bb)
cdnman42 (SB): 2,168 (72 bb)
ehimz (BB): 1,972 (66 bb)

Pre-Flop: (72) Hero (Gritz18) is CO with 8♥ 8♦
5 players fold, Gritz18 (CO) raises to 60, 1 fold, cdnman42 (SB) calls 45, 1 fold

Flop: (177) 6♣ 8♠ 5♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) checks, Gritz18 (CO) bets 89, cdnman42 (SB) calls 89

Turn: (355) 3♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) checks, Gritz18 (CO) checks

River: (355) 7♦ (2 players)
cdnman42 (SB) bets 355, Gritz18 (CO) folds

Total pot: 355
cdnman42 (SB) wins 355

Replaying viewer one street at a time

65 BB deep vs players who call wide ranges we can opn more than min to get extra value from soo many hands that they will miss and fold flops.
SB call which may mean a condensed range if they know they should be raising some of their range vs CO open
GTO wizard is great for learning ranges in these spots

Flop SB is not supposed to have 74 here so the nuts is 97 which is possible but so is sets and draws-U bet they call would they call sets?

Turn the 3 does not help them make the nuts 74 was already a straight they flat 42 highly unlikely but they now can have a big combo draw

Ok why check? If we are behind we still have outs to a better hand all we are doing is letting them draw for free?
When we check we have to have a plan for the river- that plan should be to call if they bet as they now have the green light to bluff
I know you folded the river but at this point in the hand I have no idea why you would

River ohhh that is a nasty card I understand your fear
Why would the V bet pot on that card? You checked turn why would they think they could get that much value from you?
Did you have a read that they only bet with the nuts and have no clue about value targets?
If they had the straight or the flush why pot as played? Why bet a size that gets over pairs to fold?

River is not your study point you can exploit fold here if the V is a nut peddler but that sizing would make me want to call with no data

The turn is where you want to improve your decision making there is no reason to check there.
That is not a typical hard hitting board for a SB flat so we 100% bet turn call to see river if XR

 

[Poker Orifice]

Of course the opponent matter here, and cdnman42 is a regular poster to the forum, so I actually know a bit about him. And he is definitely not crazy loose, so I would put him on a somewhat tight range,

Have you played on his table(s)? Do you have in game notes on him? I have & I do and I must say your perception of his play is way off.
I'd repeat my notes on here but well a) it's against the rules b) I don't want to hurt his feelings
I will say this.. he's a HUGE Station! I mean HUGE!

 

[Poker Orifice]

It's early levels of a CC freeroll with turbo structure (pretty much hyper turbo with the size the blinds change by)>>> raise more pre! 2.5x to 3x (I probably go 3x in 'this' spot in 'this' game).
Bet more on flop (3/5th to 2/3)
Bet turn!

As played >> SNAP fold river!
This player is never thinking about what you're thinking about what they're thinking. They are not even thinking about what your hand is (so above when stated that they could be bluffing here in this spot after reading your turn check as weak and therefore we call... I disagree 110% in 'this' spot in 'this' hand vs. 'this' player). They will be playing as face up as you can here. They are not even considering what sizing you'll be able to call with what you might have in this spot. They see their hand... they don't want you to check it back.. they 'BET'.. "POT"

 

[makisaa]

You were unlucky here, because even if you got your three of a kind, the opponent here maybe he has a 9 or a 4 completing a straight or he has two diamonds completing a flush. You risk your stack here, maybe he is bluffing, but your fold is a wise decision.

 

[Artbart805]

more aggressive after the flop... but it is a call.

 

[1luckysob]

I wouldnt fold a set here, but I would def have bet the turn. Yes there are plenty of straights in his range, but also plenty of two pair hands that would take a similar line.

 

[fundiver199]

Yes there are plenty of straights in his range, but also plenty of two pair hands that would take a similar line.

Two pair bets full pot, when any 9 or any 4 is a straight? I dont think so. Even a rookie can usually see, when there are 4 cards to a straight.

 

[1luckysob]

Two pair bets full pot, when any 9 or any 4 is a straight? I dont think so. Even a rookie can usually see, when there are 4 cards to a straight.

Players in this forum have semi-bluffs in there range to pot bet the river on such a wet board. Especially if weakness is shown on the turn as it was. If you are only ever betting pot with a straight on a 4 card to a straight board you are losing value. Back door flush with a pair is also a possibility that can justify folding the set, just seems a little less cut and dry then you are making it seem.

 

[Saul2025]

I don't know previous dynamics on table.
Did he 3bet higher Ax or not?

If yes, maybe we can assume he has pocket pair as he just called on preflop.

So I see pockets 22-TT.
Only two of them beats you. I would call.

I would also bet turn.

 

[feisas7991]

pot flop
bomb turn
check river
Hope this helps. glgl

 

[fundiver199]

Players in this forum have semi-bluffs in there range to pot bet the river on such a wet board.

Ok but is two pair a bluff? Two pair dont have enough showdown value to check and hope to win at showdown, if it goes check-check? Or perhaps make a small block bet for value trying to get called by worse? Especially if its top two pair like 87. If you are saying, that players in CC freerolls are using a GTO like balanced style, then hands like A7 or A6 makes more sense as bluffs, since they have less chance of winning at showdown. Normally we would pick unpaired hands as bluffs, but here there are not really any, unless Villain call the flop bet with pure air like KT or QJ. Everything else either gets there or pairs up.