Low-M situations: A7 vs push

[ChuckTs]

This time, we've got a push ahead of us from a player who's even shorter stacked than us. I think we can safely say that, considering our stack size, this is a push or fold.

Richmillion and Mystic Muri are both LAG, and it has cost them (see stack sizes). The rest of the players are TAG.

Seat 1: Chauffs (3700 in chips)
Seat 2: Mystic Muri (1305 in chips)
Seat 3: jvsly (4015 in chips)
Seat 4: ChuckTs (1540 in chips) Again TAG, but have pushed several times recently (15/15/1)
Seat 6: Richmillion (595 in chips)
Seat 8: RCD8 (2345 in chips)
Richmillion: posts small blind 75
RCD8: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [7d] [Ah]
Chauffs: folds
Mystic Muri: raises 1155 to 1305 and is all-in
jvsly: folds
ChuckTs: ...

What is our action?
What is our calling (or pushing) range here?
Why have I noted the

 

[alan1983]

ive called this way too many times in sit ngos and kinda learned my lesson.

With 6 left i fold this.

If im first to act we shove but calling an allin with A7 isnt 2 good of a move most of the time.

Plus u have people still behind you

 

[calibanboy]

I agree - Too early to call with this.

 

[ChuckTs]

What are our reasons for folding?

No offense, but "with 6 left I fold this" and "too early to call with this" doesn't really help.

Let's take a look at hand ranges: what is your pushing range if you're in villain's spot?

 

[alan1983]

Villains range includes a lot of hands were ahead of (by a small margin) but also a lot were behind. A7 isnt strong enough for me to think i have an edge here.

and we still have people behind us, plus the sb is almost broke so he could call this, i dont think a7 is a hand i want to play a 3handed pot with.

 

[skoldpadda]

Villain's range as a LAG is probably much larger than mine as a TAG. Any Ace or King, Q9+, any suited connectors 78+, any pair.

With A7 I'm estimating 30% equity against roughly 30-35% of that, flipping coins (45-55% equity) about half the time and a 2-1 or better favorite about 15-20% of the time.

If my estimates are accurate (I don't claim I could do this in 15 second time bank... but good to know when working on your game off the felt) that means I have about 45% equity here. With no money invested in the pot, I'd fold.

Of course most of this depends on what range of hands you put the villain on. With the range I estimate, I think you should fold.

 

[F Paulsson]

I fold.

In low-M situations, initiative is more important than equity, first of all. Even if our hand is a slight favorite over his range (I'm not so sure it is), we forfeit all fold equity when we call instead of push. If it had been folded to us, shoving is standard. But calling someone else's shove is a whole other ball park.

Now, there's some potentially dead money in the blinds that will somewhat adjust for the fact that we don't have any fold equity, but I think that will be highly offset by the fact that sometimes one of the blinds will have a hand that has us dominated. I.e., if we were the big blind and closing the action, a call could be OK, but not here.

 

[calibanboy]

What are our reasons for folding?

No offense, but "with 6 left I fold this" and "too early to call with this" doesn't really help.

Let's take a look at hand ranges: what is your pushing range if you're in villain's spot?

Basically what I am saying is that your not beating much here and you will find a better spot ( higher % chance of winning ) in the next 10 hands or so to risk your stack. In the meantime you stay in the ny and have a chance of cashing.

 

[ChuckTs]

My thoughts:

Even if we have some tougher players who like to defend their blinds sitting directly behind us (ie in our blind-stealing sights), I still think folding and using our late position to our advantage in the next few hands is a much better option. In this example, most of the table is actually pretty tight which is of course a great condition for stealing.

Results: I fold.