Lead or check river?

[mischman]

pokerstars Game #60: Tournament #3053, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2006/08/23 - 20:36:19 (ET)
Table '30531154 18' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: petro90 (6255 in chips)
Seat 2: mischman (2085 in chips)
Seat 3: Britech (3160 in chips)
Seat 4: Côté (6280 in chips)
Seat 5: Dueceswild_3 (5455 in chips)
Seat 6: Born2 kvetch (1170 in chips)
Seat 7: blackdog247 (6525 in chips)
Seat 8: FilterLine (2895 in chips)
petro90: posts small blind 50
mischman: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mischman [9c Ac]
Britech: folds
Côté: calls 100
Dueceswild_3: folds
Born2 kvetch: folds
blackdog247: calls 100
FilterLine: calls 100
petro90: folds
mischman: checks
*** FLOP *** [9h 9d Ad]
mischman: checks
Côté: checks
blackdog247: checks
FilterLine: checks
*** TURN *** [9h 9d Ad] [Kh]
mischman: checks
Côté: checks
blackdog247: checks
*A29* is connected
FilterLine: bets 300
mischman said, "didnt raise an ace pre?"
mischman: calls 300
Côté: folds
blackdog247: folds
*** RIVER *** [9h 9d Ad Kh] [4c]
mischman: ????? Do you bet out? How much? Check?
Past reads....yes there is a hand i was in with him
PokerStars Game #6027133201: Tournament #30531154, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/08/23 - 20:21:08 (ET)
Table '30531154 18' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: petro90 (6380 in chips)
Seat 2: mischman (1485 in chips)
Seat 3: Britech (3760 in chips)
Seat 4: Côté (3330 in chips)
Seat 5: Dueceswild_3 (4855 in chips)
Seat 6: Born2 kvetch (3445 in chips)
Seat 7: blackdog247 (6775 in chips)
Seat 8: FilterLine (3395 in chips)
Seat 9: 0Eve0 (2725 in chips)
petro90: posts small blind 25
mischman: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mischman [Th 4d]
Britech: folds
Côté: folds
Dueceswild_3: folds
Born2 kvetch: folds
blackdog247: folds
FilterLine: raises 100 to 150
0Eve0: folds
petro90: folds
mischman: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [7s 4h 8h]
mischman: checks
FilterLine: checks
*** TURN *** [7s 4h 8h] [9d]
mischman: checks
FilterLine: bets 200
mischman: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [7s 4h 8h 9d] [9s]
mischman: checks
FilterLine: bets 400
mischman: raises 735 to 1135 and is all-in
FilterLine: folds
FilterLine said, "you got 9"
mischman collected 1525 from pot
mischman: shows [Th 4d] (two pair, Nines and Fours)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1525 | Rake 0
Board [7s 4h 8h 9d 9s]
Seat 1: petro90 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: mischman (big blind) collected (1525)
Seat 3: Britech folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Côté folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Dueceswild_3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Born2 kvetch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: blackdog247 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

 

[twizzybop]

I would have to lead out here, still no reason to think you don't have the best hand.

 

[mischman]

I would have to lead out here, still no reason to think you don't have the best hand.

Im not worried that my 999aa isnt good, i want to know if leading or checking is best to extract the most money.

 

[twizzybop]

It is the river card, you check.. he checks.. same amount made if you bet, he folds.

 

[Jack Daniels]

Yeah, I gotta go with twizzy on this one. Unless you really knew that he was going to be aggressive and try to steal this from you, leading out is the way to go (it usually is). As far as how much, I'd say you either value bet about half the pot or so (500 - 600) and see what happens or overbet the river with like 1400-1600 like you are trying to steal it but don't want to commit too much in case he calls. If he sees it that way you could wind up all in with your monster hand.

 

[Effexor]

In tourneys, I've found that a value bet of slightly less than half their remaining stack is usually about the maximum to lead out with on a scarey board. Of course that depends on many things, such as if they were betting along the way then you can bet more.

In this case I'd lead out with a bet of about 800. It's less than the pot and would leave him with enough chips that he'd be more inclined to call.