I fold AK 33 BBs deep, weak, Genius, or Somewhere in between? [$215 Sunday Warmup]

[zachvac]

poker stars, $215 Buy-in (600/1,200 blinds, 100 ante) NL Hold'em Tourney, 9 Players

UTG: 31,068 (25.9 bb)
UTG+1: 24,090 (20.1 bb)
BTN: 43,070 (35.9 bb)
SB: 35,496 (29.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 39,806 (33.2 bb)
MP1: 28,970 (24.1 bb)
MP2: 35,231 (29.4 bb)
MP3: 17,100 (14.3 bb)
CO: 95,455 (79.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K

A

2 folds, MP3 raises to 3,500, CO raises to 7,200, 5 folds

MP3 is an 11/8 and CO is a 7/7. This is over like 50 hands, no other real reads.

 

[bob_tiger]

This is a great fold, why would you gambol your tourney life on A high, I mean 22 has you beat, and even if the huge stack has TJ for example, you are only 60% favored to win, only DONKS gambol their tourney life on that crap, I would easily shove 22 here but not AK.

 

[c9h13no3]

Nice...

Somewhere in between, IMO. We still have some fold equity, there's some dead $ in there, and cold 4-betting looks hella scary. Folding isn't bad either. I'd probably press the jam button, but I enjoy "over-rated drawing hands".

 

[Dwilius]

This is a great fold, why would you gambol your tourney life on A high, I mean 22 has you beat, and even if the huge stack has TJ for example, you are only 60% favored to win, only DONKS gambol their tourney life on that crap, I would easily shove 22 here but not AK.

Obviously this is atleast partly a joke, but why? Are you never folding AK 33bb deep in a tourney? After 7/7 min(ish)reraises a tight shortstack I don't expect to be ahead here. I probably fold, but maybe that's why I've never won a tournament. I think I have enough chips left to get in a better situation.

 

[bob_tiger]

Obviously this is a joke, but why? Are you never folding AK 33bb deep in a tourney? After 7/7 minreraises I don't expect to be ahead here. I probably fold, but maybe that's why I've never won a tournament. I think I have enough chips left to get in a better situation.

Zach and I had were experimenting something lol, but in all ceriusness I think fold is good here, I mean if the big stack raised in LP like that then I would be inclined to shove, but his raise def says JJ+ and maybe AK, so this is definitely an ok fold. I was thinking about posting ez shove, because I have been watching whole time and A came on flop, lol. Big stack did end up taking it down but he could of easily had AA too.

 

[WVHillbilly]

This is a great fold, why would you gambol your tourney life on A high, I mean 22 has you beat, and even if the huge stack has TJ for example, you are only 60% favored to win, only DONKS gambol their tourney life on that crap, I would easily shove 22 here but not AK.

Why would you ever shove 22 here? Your equity with 22 against your opponents shove calling range absolutely sucks! FWIW I don't mind the fold Zach, but I'd probably just jam.

AK equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.942% 40.52% 07.42% 43708717 8009054.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 52.058% 44.63% 07.42% 48148326 8009054.50 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

22 equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.618% 31.27% 00.35% 257000076 2873550.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 68.382% 68.03% 00.35% 559158744 2873550.00 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

 

[c9h13no3]

Why would you ever shove 22 here? Your equity with 22 against your opponents shove calling range absolutely sucks! FWIW I don't mind the fold Zach, but I'd probably just jam.

AK equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.942% 40.52% 07.42% 43708717 8009054.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 52.058% 44.63% 07.42% 48148326 8009054.50 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

22 equity:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.618% 31.27% 00.35% 257000076 2873550.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 68.382% 68.03% 00.35% 559158744 2873550.00 { 77+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Lol, everyone just got leveled.

 

[zachvac]

I think bob was levelling but I am not with this hand. It really happened, I really folded, and I really would like serious feedback.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Lol, everyone just got leveled.

I guess I'm just so used to seeing stupid posts like that I thought it was serious (though I was surprised it came from bob_tiger).

 

[c9h13no3]

I think bob was levelling but I am not with this hand. It really happened, I really folded, and I really would like serious feedback.

Folding is fine and probably preferable. Jamming this hand is going to be barely +EV, and I think its one of those edges that you would pass up on in a tournament, but that you'd jam your money in if you're playing a cash game 100bb's deep.

If there was an idiot who had a 60bb stack though at your table, I think this would be a jam. You're probably around average stacked, and you need to be building during this stage of the tournament. But meht, I suck at teh tournamentz, so folding's probably best.

 

[bob_tiger]

I guess I'm just so used to seeing stupid posts like that I thought it was serious (though I was surprised it came from bob_tiger).

I'm usually serious with my hand analysis replies, I think this might be the first time I posted something stupid but like I said Zach and I are having an expirement, its a secret, lol.

 

[switch0723]

some sick humour ITT....

Anyway, ye i like this fold, since the bigstack is nitty according to your stats, and not only that but he has 3betting like the shartest stack at the table, who is most likely to shove over the top, so that narrows his range a ton

 

[mecoble]

i think in between not knowing when in tourney this was and about the 2 players but folding ak to a raise and reraise is a good move a lot. i dont like calling and trying to see a flop for 7k in this situtaion cause more than likely theguy with 17K will reraise all in with his stack and at that point your committed to all in

 

[silverslugger33]

It's a pretty good fold. Other than an insanely hyper aggressive player, I have to believe the CO has JJ-AA, maybe AK as well. With pretty much any flop, you'll see action, so that's another tough situation. You have plenty of chips, but not enough so that you can start screwing around, and you don't want to get into a hand with a guy that has a stack 3x what yours is. He will try to bully you around, so short of hitting a great flop, you have a tough decision to make.

 

[kowboys4]

I like the fold. I don't care if it is a random donk. Reraising is dangerous and your probably at best 50 / 50. Calling is giving away your hand. Even if you hit an A or a K there is no guarantee you have the best hand. I like the fold. Too many people would shove in that spot and vastly overplay AK or call and gamble too much for my liking. Thumbsup.

 

[mickyb]

Where are we in relation to the bubble?

Good to see that UTG and UTG+1 got to act after the cutoff - makes a nice change.

 

[Jillychemung]

Have you seen how CO got his stack or what hands has CO showdown since he has played so few hands? Has MP3 been at his smaller stack long, if not what kind of hit did he take to get it this low?

 

[zachvac]

Where are we in relation to the bubble?

Personally I don't think it really matters, because in general I'm not playing to make the money, but to accumulate chips and make it deep. But to answer the question this was a few hundred people away and I think my stack was right around average if not a bit short of average.

Good to see that UTG and UTG+1 got to act after the cutoff - makes a nice change.

lol, nah that's the "2 folds" here:

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K

A

2 folds...

 

[mickyb]

Zach, I assume you are playing to maximise your $EV - if so, the bubble does have some effect, even if it's overrated by many.

However, it may well affect the cards that the others at your table are playing.

You have the raise coming from MP3, surely that would mean *four* folds first? Also the list of stack sizes...

UTG: 31,068 (25.9 bb)
UTG+1: 24,090 (20.1 bb)
BTN: 43,070 (35.9 bb)
SB: 35,496 (29.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 39,806 (33.2 bb)
MP1: 28,970 (24.1 bb)
MP2: 35,231 (29.4 bb)
MP3: 17,100 (14.3 bb)
CO: 95,455 (79.5 bb)