How much do you bet here? 2nd nuts on river

[skoldpadda]

What is the highest amount that villain calls here?

Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: whodey64 (395 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 2: UglyKidBert (13950 in chips)
Seat 3: snowangel83 (3050 in chips)
Seat 4: loony2ns (2525 in chips)
Seat 5: ezcash55 (9830 in chips)
Seat 6: Turtle31 (2745 in chips)
Seat 7: BabyHumvee (16375 in chips)
Seat 8: silverwulf12 (11927 in chips)
Seat 9: OCC RYDER (555 in chips) is sitting out
silverwulf12: posts small blind 100
OCC RYDER: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BabyHumvee
whodey64: folds
UglyKidBert: folds
snowangel83: calls 200
loony2ns: folds
ezcash55: calls 200
Turtle31: calls 200
BabyHumvee: calls 200
silverwulf12: calls 100
OCC RYDER: folds
*** FLOP ***
silverwulf12: bets 400
snowangel83: calls 400
ezcash55: folds
Turtle31: folds
BabyHumvee: calls 400
*** TURN ***
silverwulf12: bets 600
snowangel83: folds
BabyHumvee: raises 600 to 1200
silverwulf12: calls 600
*** RIVER ***
silverwulf12: checks
BabyHumvee: ?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Pot is ~4,500, there are not a lot of draws villain could have been happily playing along with, so it appears he has to have some sort of made hand - a made hand that he's happy enough to lead into four players on the flop and two on the turn with. Also, the river is not a scare card at all.

I'd bet 3-3.5k and expect to be called.

Edit: Also, don't think about it in terms of "What is the highest amount he calls?" (a) There isn't a 'cutoff point' where he will go from calling everything to folding everything because we're dealing with ranges of hands, and (b) if he calls a 2k bet 70% of the time and a 4k bet 40% of the time, the 4k bet is 'better'.

IIRC FP did an article on similar things a while back, might be worth searching for it.

 

[skoldpadda]

Thanks, Chris. I will look for FP's article.

I'll give this some more time for more replies before I post the results.