Help me to figure out why I shouldn't have called this

[TheNoob]

Probably a very loose raise to begin with, and maybe should have checked the flop with my bottom pair and oesd? (that's alot of mistakes, I know).

I probably a little reckless here, but I'm more curious about how I figure out that calling his AI was a bad call.

I end up with pot odds of 2315/1135 or 2:1 (33%) to make the call.

With all the d's and the possible higher straight (if he holds J8) I guess I had no business with the pot sized bet postflop.

But would he have called my preflop raise with something as marginal as J8? Probably not. And whatever the chances are that he holds (2) d's, I figure they're small.

So postflop I wonder if I'm just dealing with top pair.

If so, my outs are (2) 7's (4) 6's (4) J's = 10 x 4=40%

Take away the (2) 7's if he has a big set and it's 8 x 4=32%

I guess when I write it all out, it doesn't look as bad as I thought (the call relative to top pair, I mean)

Can you tell me if I'm figuring that right?



Stacks:
* BTN with 1945
* SB with 1295
* BB with 2055
* UTG with 2065
* MP with 3080
* CO with 3060

Blinds:
Site: Full Tilt Poker
* * Dealt to MP:7♥ 8♥
* * Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * Hero raises to 220
* * 1 players fold.
* * BTN calls [220]
* * 2 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 4
* * Potsize: 590
Flop:
* * 10♦ 7♦ 9♦
* * Hero bets [590]
* * 2 players fold.
* * BTN raises to 1,725, and is all in
* * Hero calls [1,135] BTN shows :
* * A♣ 10♣ Hero shows :
* * 7♥ 8♥
* * Potsize: 4040
Turn:
* * Q♦
* * Potsize: 4040
River:
* * J♣
* * BTN shows a pair of Tens
* * Hero shows a straight, Queen high Hero wins the pot (4,040) with a straight, Queen high

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

 

[S93]

I whould play this hand weak and check/fold.
With all thouse diamonds your never in good shap,even against a hand like Ad2c your only 55% and against a hand like KdJc your 40% so im going with folding here.

If this where a rainbow flop i whould like your line alot better but might actualy check and hope for a a free card and if vilian bets shove over the top.

 

[feitr]

Folding preflop is fine, but i don't mind an open. Presuming blinds are 50/100 you should be opening this to more than 220 tho for sure. OOP on this flop i think you have to check/fold or maybe bet/fold if you think this misses btn's range alot and btn is inclined to fold to cbets. I don't think you want to try to check/call this to see a showdown.

Anyways, as played, betting pot on the flop is a huge mistake. It doesn't really have any more fold equity than a bet of like 400, but you make it easier to get committed.

I'd still be inclined to check/fold tho if btn is relatively tight seeing as btn can just show up with so so so many hands that aren't going to fold this flop, and you don't really want to be putting in much money at all in this situation.

 

[TheNoob]

Folding preflop is fine, but i don't mind an open. Presuming blinds are 50/100 you should be opening this to more than 220 tho for sure. OOP on this flop i think you have to check/fold or maybe bet/fold if you think this misses btn's range alot and btn is inclined to fold to cbets. I don't think you want to try to check/call this to see a showdown.

Anyways, as played, betting pot on the flop is a huge mistake. It doesn't really have any more fold equity than a bet of like 400, but you make it easier to get committed.

I'd still be inclined to check/fold tho if btn is relatively tight seeing as btn can just show up with so so so many hands that aren't going to fold this flop, and you don't really want to be putting in much money at all in this situation.

After all was done, this is what I thought was my biggest mistake.

I think all my figuring based on his top pair is all for nothing, because there are just too many other possibilities that have me beat.

Bad play.


ETA: And you know (the blinds were 50/100) I'm looking at that 220 raise and wonder what I was thinking. If I raise, I don't ever make them so wimpy. I think I had a brain cramp there.

 

[bill75460]

your never in good shape with anything on fulltilt poker