Help me figure the math

[Zingmaster]

I've got to call 1.3K after the turn to win 6.4K with a gutshot and a flush
draw. I have a feeling a dude has the nuts so one gutshot out is gone.

flop is Ac Qd Jc and i'm holding Tc9c

every time am I right? I'm not good with math.

 

[WurlyQ]

Assuming they have KT without a club, you are drawing to 2 non club kings for the chop and 9 clubs for the win.

Chances that none of your outs comes is 34/45*33/44 = 56.7%
Chances that no clubs comes is 36/45*35/44 = 63.6%

Thus, you're chances of winning are 1 - 63.6% = 36.4%
Chop is 63.6% - 56.7% = 6.9%

If they have the Kc, I'm not going to do the math but I think your win % is down to like the 31-32% area and the chop % goes up like 2-3%

In short, you need anywhere from 1.6:1 to 1.8:1 to break even. Here you're getting almost 5:1 so it's a snap call under any circumstances.

 

[weirdhotshot]

Yeah.

Your chances of winning from the flop are 45% with a gutshot and flush draw. The only problem is if he happens to hold Kx c in his hand, then your outs have disappeared. But this is poker...you definitely should have made a call into that pot.

The only problem with calls, though, is that it appears weak. If you wanted to maybe even control the pot you could re-raise into him. It depends if he's a maniac. Because what could he be possibly holding? Ace rag? He definitely king ten...and if you meet a lot of resistance, we all know what the pros do.

 

[Janon]

if u had enough chips to still have a good stake size even losing its an easy call if u ask me

 

[freerollerjk]

15 outs. you're almost 60% to hit flush or str8. easy call.

 

[weirdhotshot]

My bad with calling it a gutshot earlier. It is an OEST and flush draw. Freerollerjk is right. 15 outs, 60%.

 

[Steveg1976]

My bad with calling it a gutshot earlier. It is an OEST and flush draw. Freerollerjk is right. 15 outs, 60%.

It is easier to just say OESFD - Open Ended Straigh Flush Draw