Good spot or mistake on bubble?

[NooBsKing]

1,5$ 18-man turbo

1) http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/7101207

Opener is fish...

2) http://www.pokerhandreplays.com/view.php/id/7101208

UTG, but 4BB stack...can i fold this hand yet?

Thx for your time

 

[trent32la]

Hand 1 > If he's a really tight fish, snap fold. If he's a somewhat loose fish who is capable of 3xing marginal hands here, shove it in.

Hand 2 > Snap get it in, I would much prefer shoving JT here than a hand like A4. The BB is going to hit us next hand, and we are last in chips with nothing to lose.

 

[rlzaleski]

Wish I knew to know what range you should call here. It's 5 handed with <= 10 BB and you have about 1/2 of most everyone's stack. Only one I'd be worried about is the BB on your right, he coudl probably gamble a bit more than the rest.

I think you're going to have to gamble somewhere, probably something like this or A-anything maybe. I just wish it was suited.

I ran some scenarios and if the BB goes wide, like 60% of hands which is most connectors, any pair, any king, and any Jack suited + some others like 54s+ and 56o you're a slight dog 45%. You get 49% suited and if you wait for a QTo or JTs you're about 50/50, so maybe I'd try to wait, but I dunno. I guess it depends on how tight the others might be, it's hard to price in the fold equity for me here, but I think you'd have a bit more if you waited for the button.

 

[rlzaleski]

I re-watched the replay because I forgot to close it and thought about tightening the range because any of the 4 could call. ~20% range seems reasonable for the other players to call with which is any suited ace, JTo, or 66+. You're only 40% as it is against that range.

Also, since you are UTG and all 4 have to act being suited actually does a decent amount improving your chances if you get multiple calls.

Just looking for Q8+ or any A or pair seems to do a lot better against that range, but that's about 29% of hands, which you are 80% to draw by your next BB.

I'm curious what someone who's thought about this more thinks here.

 

[NooBsKing]

Wish I knew to know what range you should call here. It's 5 handed with <= 10 BB and you have about 1/2 of most everyone's stack. Only one I'd be worried about is the BB on your right, he coudl probably gamble a bit more than the rest.

I think you're going to have to gamble somewhere, probably something like this or A-anything maybe. I just wish it was suited.

I ran some scenarios and if the BB goes wide, like 60% of hands which is most connectors, any pair, any king, and any Jack suited + some others like 54s+ and 56o you're a slight dog 45%. You get 49% suited and if you wait for a QTo or JTs you're about 50/50, so maybe I'd try to wait, but I dunno. I guess it depends on how tight the others might be, it's hard to price in the fold equity for me here, but I think you'd have a bit more if you waited for the button.

Yes, if i knew it about the opener that he is a gambler, so i could wait for his own elimination...it's true...

OK, interesting answer ...this situation much depends on players at the table...and their ranges...

Thx for answers

 

[NooBsKing]

Hand 1 > If he's a really tight fish, snap fold. If he's a somewhat loose fish who is capable of 3xing marginal hands here, shove it in.

Hand 2 > Snap get it in, I would much prefer shoving JT here than a hand like A4. The BB is going to hit us next hand, and we are last in chips with nothing to lose.

No, he was a loose fish...so then it's ok as you write...

Yes, me too...i agree with you

Thx for answer

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

Both are standard jams. totally fine. folding either would be wrong. unless possibly in hand #1 if opener fish had stats like 15/6/3 then I'd just fold.

My other comment is that I've read a bunch of your hands lately and I have 2 thoughts. #1 why not play 9 man SnGs which pay a higher % of the field and will give you a better feel for ICM/bubble stuff. and #2 you seem to be allowing your stack to get waaaay too low before entering shove/fold mode.

ALL THE MONEY TO BE MADE IN SnGs is from FOLD EQUITY!!! meaning start shoving sooner. who cares if your opponents are happy blinding down to 5bb. let them make mistakes. actually the more willing they are to blind down, the wider you should shove. and yes....they will eventually adjust so you should adjust sooner. it's a game of cat and mouse but it seems like all your posts are something like 4-10bb and asking if you should shove. that's the wrong question. How wide should you shove and at how big a stack is the real question. cheers!

I'll leave you with one verse of scripture to memorize for SnGs. "Shove light and Call tight"

 

[NooBsKing]

OK, thx for answer .

Mby because i played 45s and 180s before...so i don't want to play 9 man SnG's...but 18 man is more similar as 9 man than 45s or 180s...it's true. And i now find out it's more difficult for ICM. But i want to learn this format because i like it .

Yes, you are right. But sometimes i am afraid that the short with 2BBs ends on the better place than me ...but it's a bad psychology...

It's a nice scripture to memorize ...i remember this

Thank you very much once again

 

[MrBadAss]

as trent32la said, snap the 2 , and fold the 1 one