Good Bluff / Bad Bluff?

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LUCIUS VARENUS

Enthusiast
Joined
May 20, 2008
Total posts
43
bluffwt8.jpg


Sorry for no hand history, I'm having trouble with bodog Hand Grabber. This is taken from a $500 guaranteed freeroll with $1 rebuys and addons, with 2990 entrants. I want you to judge whether you thought I played this hand well, and really I shouldn't post that he folded on the river since it is the "result" of the hand. In this hand, I thought he had a better hand than AQ, and I disliked being out of position. But since he made it so cheap to call, I had to try to outdraw him - or if that failed, perhaps I could outplay him instead, and I know the ways I can do this out of position (its hard, but you can make players think you have a big hand by playing this way). I particularly hoped he had two Jacks or Tens or AJ/AT.

On the flop I checked. I had missed the flop. Many players these days seem to be leading out into the preflop aggressor to prevent their continuation bet and take the pot for themselves. But I think this is not a good play since most players should know that you are trying to take the pot away from them like this (which is why I like to lead out into players with a very strong hand [set/trips+], so that I get raised). I think most players expect to be checked to when they have position - after all "If he had a big hand why wouldn't he let me bet first so he could make more money on it" is a common thought process. So even though I showed weakness, this is mostly what I would do anyway, regardless of whether I hit the flop. I wanted to see what he did. If he made a substantial bet I fold this hand immediately. But this guy bet $800 into a $17k pot. So it looks like he doesn't have anything or he's weak and too afraid of bluffing a proper amount. I'm not folding. If anything, he's shown more weakness than I have by betting that amount. I am going to float him out of position, using a line of play that is frequently used as the alternative to leading out into a preflop raiser with a big hand on the flop - check calling the flop, and either checkraising the turn or leading out on the turn.

On the turn I will try to represent a King or set of sixes or sevens, which he is afraid of. If he has two Jacks then he will think that LUCIUS got lucky again with his AK. LUCIUS did, and he made it for himself. The Ten on the turn doesn't change much. It makes a set of tens, a ten high straight, and gives QJ an open ended straight draw. And it gave me a gutshot. Obviously if he hit trip tens, we'll soon find out about it. The hand looks just as attractive for two Jacks, or perhaps Queens as it did on the flop. Only this time, I'm going to make it seem real ugly. I bet $12000, and he calls me, quite quickly. Which makes me a bit worried. But he only called. So he might be on a draw (very unlikely), or he is keeping the pot small with QQ or JJ hoping to check it down, hoping I'll have nothing. I still have outs, any Ace for sure, maybe the Queen. And of course the Jack for the nuts.

On the river, I shove. I have represented the King with the Ace kicker or a set the whole time, and he's going to need a big hand to call. So he can't call. He can't risk his whole stack worried that it'll cost him the tournament, with just second pair. That's why I thought it would work.

So, please evaluate this bluff, and tell me if I could've done anything better. Perhaps I could've bet more on the turn so that I win more on the river? But perhaps he would call more often since there would be a larger amount in the pot on the end? Your thoughts please!

For those interested I finished 46th after raising a significant amount from the big blind and shoving a middle card flop with AK OOP and being called by K8 which hit middle pair (guy called off half 90k stack lol). I won $2!
 
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MitchellC

Rising Star
Joined
Mar 31, 2008
Total posts
10
This is one of the stranger betting patterns I've seen.

You raise 8x's the BB, he raises the min. On the flop he bets the min into a $16,900 pot. Strange? You bet when a non-scare card hits and he calls. What hand do you put him on?

Hey, you won and it looks like you have a big hand when you bet the turn, and move all in on the river. You don't want him to call since I think his hand is better than A-Q.

So, my conclusion: Winning this hand is a good thing. It could have ended in a disaster if your opponent had a big hand.
 
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feitr

Legend
Joined
Feb 8, 2008
Total posts
1,570
It is a strange line. A hand that hits the flop isn't flat calling 800 into a 17k pot after checking then leading out with 12k on the turn in most cases. Often calling a cbet then leading out on the turn is a perfectly legit play, but in this case betting 800 into a 17k pot would definitely be reraised if you actually hit. AK doesn't give a free card on the turn. Ofc alot of donks bet tiny amounts to try and get reraised, but again if you actually had AK you would be more than happy to get reraised.

Ultimately if a bluff works it is a good bluff, but still a very strange line to take on the 800$ flop bet because i can't see anybody in the world with AK, or any K just flat calling that.
 
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LUCIUS VARENUS

Enthusiast
Joined
May 20, 2008
Total posts
43
I play my one pair hands a little more slowly than you might think, too used to cash games. I would play a set like this sometimes, but only to mix it up. Weird hand eh!
 
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