$Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: Late Stage,Very Tight opponents, Push with 99 on Bu, right or wrong?

[zipper2000]

$Freeroll NLHE MTT Turbo: Late Stage,Very Tight opponents, Push with 99 on Bu, right or wrong?

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/27/2

poker stars Freeroll No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t8000/t16000 Blinds + t3200 - 7 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t74160 M = 1.60
MP: t271788 M = 5.86
CO: t354486 M = 7.64
Hero (BTN): t327635 M = 7.06
SB: t506216 M = 10.91
BB: t853895 M = 18.40
UTG: t442801 M = 9.54

Pre Flop: (t46400) Hero is BTN with 9:heart: 9:diamond:
3 folds, CO raises to t32000, Hero raises to t324435 all in, 2 folds, CO calls t292435

Flop: (t695270) K:club: A:diamond: 5:heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t695270) 3:heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t695270) 4:heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t695270
CO shows 3:spade: 3:club: (three of a kind, Threes)
Hero shows 9:heart: 9:diamond: (a pair of Nines)
CO wins t695270

 

[zipper2000]

My plan was steal blindes or play coin flip on stack with CO, cause he had loose stats.

 

[trent32la]

Your shove here was the correct play...mathematically you should be shoving around <20bb from that spot...sometimes wider esp againist a loose opponent..flatting is an option however in a turbo I prefer shoving over a raise as if the raiser folds you pick up the dead $..and there aren't many good flops for 99....this was just an unlucky spot for you and just remember 4 out of 5 times your doubling up and have a huge stack there...your opponents call with 33 was bad...more likely than not here villain will fold and now you have picked up ~5bb uncontested!

 

[horizon12]

In freeroll 99 very strong hand, shove its fine, and in this hand vs lag i shove any pair and Ax.

 

[thatgreekdude]

i'd rather flat and play a pot in position, 20BBs is to deep to shove and hope for a flip, if villain was stealing a lot from LP maybe the shove is OK, gets him to fold most times. Got it in good, got unlucky, what more can you do.

 

[Arjonius]

I'd rather shove than flat. there's a high probability the flop will bring at least one overcard. Since the villain is loose, he's likely to cbet quite often, but even knowing this, how confident can you be continuing when he cbets?

So, flatting will quite often lead to me facing a tricky decision. I'd rather put him to one.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Shoving here is the correct play.

Also a 40/27 player raising isn't a tight player.

 

[thatgreekdude]

I'd rather shove than flat. there's a high probability the flop will bring at least one overcard. Since the villain is loose, he's likely to cbet quite often, but even knowing this, how confident can you be continuing when he cbets?

So, flatting will quite often lead to me facing a tricky decision. I'd rather put him to one.

You could also argue that with villain being loose he will usually call alot wider than a tight player, he doesn't show up with 88-22 often enough so we're racing two overs most times. Well I don't know, that's just how I see it.

 

[Arjonius]

You could also argue that with villain being loose he will usually call alot wider than a tight player, he doesn't show up with 88-22 often enough so we're racing two overs most times. Well I don't know, that's just how I see it.

What's the problem if he calls wider? 22-88 is 7/5 times more likely than TT-AA, so if he calls with all pockets, we're ahead more often than we're behind. We're also ahead of two overs, albeit only slightly. Plus since you're assuming he'll call wide, there's at least some chance he'll call very wide with hands like A9 or even Ax suited where he has only 3 outs.

As well, he's likely to fold some hands, and when he does, we add about 15% to our stack.

With an M of only 7, I think I'm +EV enough here to be willing to play for my stack against a loose opponent.

 

[X at Tripaces]

I think its a good shove unless you just fold, which with less then 10M you shouldnt be folding 99 unless someone shoves before you. You were way ahead preflop, which is how you want to get your money in. I would play the same way 10 out of 10 times here.

 

[Jacki Burkhart]

flatting in position, or shoving are both OK but my strong preference is for shoving here.

Yes I have found most loose raisers also call looser, but still they'll fold SOME of the race hands that might give you hell post flop if you just flat. Yes, he'll still call with AK, AQ, AJ and possibly KQ and sometimes KJ but he's probably folding KT, QJ, QT type hands which is a good outcome for us. And let's not forget calling with 22-88 is actually a good outcome for us. The possibility of 88 calling and QJ folding makes shoving a better choice.

 

[suby_rafael]

It was a bad move to move in with 21 big blinds or so. Sure in this situation you had him dominated but the shove was not an ideal move. Too Aggressive for that stack.

Any decent ace plus kicker is calling you there. Most of the time if you get called in such situation either you will be slightly ahead or it will be a coinflip situation or you will be up against an overpair. If we had 5 to 6 big blinds less then i would consider shoving. Here i might even consider folding pre flop as we don't want to be investing 2 big blinds with a short stack as it will be tough to play this hand post flop with lots of over cards to come.

It might seem odd but i think best play here is to fold.

 

[Arjonius]

It was a bad move to move in with 21 big blinds or so. Sure in this situation you had him dominated but the shove was not an ideal move. Too Aggressive for that stack.

Any decent ace plus kicker is calling you there. Most of the time if you get called in such situation either you will be slightly ahead or it will be a coinflip situation or you will be up against an overpair. If we had 5 to 6 big blinds less then i would consider shoving. Here i might even consider folding pre flop as we don't want to be investing 2 big blinds with a short stack as it will be tough to play this hand post flop with lots of over cards to come.

It might seem odd but i think best play here is to fold.

Around 20bb is a fairly standard size to 3bet shove, so why is it too aggressive?

So what if any decent A will call? That's not opener's entire opening range or his entire range to call a shove.

So what if we're slightly ahead or flipping most of the time we're called? This ignores the times he folds.

Waiting until you have only 5-6bb is quite common in low buyins. That doesn't make it a good idea. I don't recall even one top-flight MTT player recommending this as a general policy, only in highly unusual situations.

Folding is far too weak to consider seriously. Shoving is the clear #1 choice, well ahead of calling, which is significantly ahead of folding.

 

[Rldetheflop]

It was a bad move to move in with 21 big blinds or so. Sure in this situation you had him dominated but the shove was not an ideal move. Too Aggressive for that stack.

Any decent ace plus kicker is calling you there. Most of the time if you get called in such situation either you will be slightly ahead or it will be a coinflip situation or you will be up against an overpair. If we had 5 to 6 big blinds less then i would consider shoving. Here i might even consider folding pre flop as we don't want to be investing 2 big blinds with a short stack as it will be tough to play this hand post flop with lots of over cards to come.

It might seem odd but i think best play here is to fold.

Look at the antes its more like 18BB effective. I can see a point of view flatting although I am shoving this all day against this villain but to suggest a fold? WHAT? are we trying to win this tourney or just creep up the pay scale.

Edit: my math is saying only 12 BB effective. I think I must be doing it wrong. lol That ante seems awfully high compared to the blinds.

 

[BearPlay]

With an M ~ 7, I'm shoving here, any day, every day, especially against a VPI of 40.

 

[suby_rafael]

Flatting is never a good option here as it will be very difficult to play post flop. I agree 9 out of 10 times it is the right move to get it in when you have such less blinds. But i made a bit of an exception here because the headline of this question read "Late stage, Very tight opponents".

Therefore i made an exception to the otherwise standard play. I think you have to make some of these seemingly over conservative laydowns sometimes. I am an odd man out here but this is just what i would prefer doing. Of course there is a sort of disclaimer on my signature below.

 

[Arjonius]

Flatting is never a good option here as it will be very difficult to play post flop. I agree 9 out of 10 times it is the right move to get it in when you have such less blinds. But i made a bit of an exception here because the headline of this question read "Late stage, Very tight opponents".

The opponent being very tight works two ways. His range is stronger, but otoh, his shove calling range is going to be very tight to, so it's not unreasonable to think he'll fold more of his opening range than he should.

 

[BearPlay]

The opponent being very tight works two ways. His range is stronger, but otoh, his shove calling range is going to be very tight to, so it's not unreasonable to think he'll fold more of his opening range than he should.

Question... I know these are generalities, but a VPI of 40 does not indicate a "tight" player to me.

 

[Arjonius]

Question... I know these are generalities, but a VPI of 40 does not indicate a "tight" player to me.

Agreed. I didn't assume villain was tight though. My post was an "even if" reply to suby's post where he assumed it.